SteveeRogerr Categories Trading

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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
FEAR - It’s the re-experience of failure in advance.

Many traders face the issue of Not entering in trades because of fear.

A thread on How to pull the trigger when the opportunity knocks.


Lets First start from knowing the cause of this "FEAR" of pulling the trigger.

A traders goes through many phases before becoming Profitable.

The first phase is the " APUN HI BHAGWAN HAI" phase-

When we first begin Trading, we don’t know any concepts, we don’t know about the risks , the dangers.

So we start trading, and like most guys by beginners luck we start making good, we start to calculate how much money we will make in next 1yr, 5 yrs, Greed start to Hop in.


We get introduced to Various instruments, F&O, LEVERAGE.

We take big positions as we don’t have any FEAR cause we haven't seen those bad phases yet.

Now we get the Big blow, account down -50%, or in many cases wiped out.

The first phase ends here.


Now we know How the market can kick our ass, we now know the risk that comes with those big positions.

"THE LEARNING PHASE"-

Now we know that we were just lucky initially and now we have to learn why we get those losses, so we start learning concepts , fundamental, Technicals.
TRADING , LIFE
Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
FREE MINI STOCK MBA
If you wish to learn abt trading,psychology,options,business etc
You can go through this thread.
Other than this I do post videos on my YT channel : -Abhishek Kar & Tradiostation
-Intraday views on FREE telegram : Abhishek Kar Official
RT will be appreciated

1. Threads to learn Options
https://t.co/wabkek43I8

2. https://t.co/OIDenHKdWN

3. Some core rules to investing
https://t.co/37d1pygp7P

4.Summing up 2020 Trading lessons
https://t.co/jSUb1lSGbQ

5.Effects of margin change on


6. Exciting story about a trader who destroyed a Bank
https://t.co/CsEEhIsD3q

7. Some Thought Provoking facts about stock markets
https://t.co/IjxpX5Wx24

8. A dose on Trading and investing


9. Top 5 resources to learn everything about stocks
https://t.co/6KnIySBGIG

10. Some Pro Tips on Trading
https://t.co/EiSGikt7jv

11. Wisdom on stuffs you should not do
https://t.co/bI2dH0XTSS

12. Reasons why you are losing the


13. The DARK side of stock market
https://t.co/qsteGcbquI

14. Stocks where you should NOT invest
https://t.co/2tD5q0K3UQ

15. Lessons from MILLIONAIRE trader
https://t.co/Pec6LmUtGa

16. Lessons from my
TRADING
James Mishra
James Mishra
@rishmishra
(1/25) A number of Silicon Valley investors are putting their money and influence into a campaign to gaslight rape victims into not seeking medical treatment

despite the warnings of top law enforcement officials

and NOBODY is talking about this.

(2/25) First, a little about me. I used to be a licensed sexual assault crisis counselor, counseling victims admitted to one of three Minneapolis emergency rooms.

After I'd speak to the victim, they'd receive a medical exam from a Sexual Assault Nurse Examiner (SANE).

(3/25) During the exam, DNA and other evidence is collected with a "rape kit" to optionally be used in a civil or criminal case.

(4/25) But collecting evidence is not the ONLY reason to receive an exam.

The victim may also receive:
- counseling (hello!)
- treatment for (potentially invisible) injuries
- medications like Plan B and emergency antiretroviral therapy for HIV prophylaxis.

(5/25) Leda Health, a startup cofounded by Madison Campbell and Liesel Vaidya, is raising money to sell "do-it-yourself" rape kits that wouldn't require a hospital visit

which is possibly the most HARMFUL startup idea that I have ever heard of.
TRADING
Sahil Bloom
Sahil Bloom
@SahilBloom
Dunning-Kruger Effect 101

In a year when the markets have minted many new self-proclaimed geniuses, it is worth remembering the Dunning-Kruger Effect.

But what is the Dunning-Kruger Effect and how does it work?

Here's Dunning-Kruger Effect 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias in which people with low ability at a given task are prone to overestimate their ability at that task.

Put simply, humans are notoriously incapable of objective evaluation of their competency levels.

2/ The cognitive bias was first identified by psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in a 1999 study.

Their paper, entitled Unskilled and Unaware of It, summarized, "People tend to hold overly favorable views of their abilities in many social and intellectual domains."


3/ The two men had studied the bizarre case of McArthur Wheeler, a 5'6" 270lb bank robber who was swiftly caught after robbing two banks in broad daylight.

He hadn't worn a mask.

Instead, he had put lemon juice on his face, believing it would make him invisible to cameras.


4/ Wheeler was aware that lemon juice was used as invisible ink, so (incorrectly) inferred that it could be used to make himself invisible to security cameras.

Even after he was caught, he was legitimately incredulous that his plan with the lemon juice hadn't worked.
TRADING
Michael Kao
Michael Kao
@UrbanKaoboy
Re: Fannie/Freddie-The Path Is Actually Clearer NOW. On its face, this claim may sound ludicrous off the back of a precipitous drop in valuations due to what some interpret as SM losing his nerve and punting to a hostile Admin. In this thread, I posit the exact opposite.

First, the economic realities: 1) GSEs are the bedrock behind our housing market which in turn is the bedrock behind our economy, 2) after 12 years and $300 bn, gov has thus far squandered the opportunity to recap, 3) this economy recovery is VERY long in the tooth.

When Trump took office, we all hoped that he would usher in a regime change from the Admins that enacted conservatorship and then the Net Worth Sweep. Well, he actually did that with the appointments of SM and MC.

Yet, what always bothered me about SM was his perfect poker-face. For those of you following me for awhile, you know I’ve been saying that I couldn’t tell whether he was just playing bad cop or really was Darth Vader incarnate.

The primary consensus exit preconditions were: 1) there has to be a demonstrable path to meeting cap reqs, 2) the SPS needs to be forgiven, 3) court cases need to be settled.
TRADING , ECONOMY
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Flywheel Research
Flywheel Research
@flywheelfunds
1/12 Valuing a Disruptive Businesses: Naked Wines ($WINE) Case Study. In my intro last week, I promised examples of using ROIIC & reinvestment rate to value disruptors. $WINE is an eComm D2C wine model with SaaS-like outcomes. EXCELLENT DISCLOSURE makes it a good case study

It began as an online wine retailer with many SKUs/low loyalty, but then pivoted at a pivotal moment when a top exec realized a cohort of consumers were super loyal – those that enjoyed supporting independent winemakers. @_inpractise Feast your eyes on this glorious disclosure:


Naked Wines is forecast to report approximately zero EBIT this year. As we will see, the company is not worth zero, nor does it mean Value Investors are allowed to cavalierly toss it in the “too hard” pile. Here’s a way to value Naked Wines with discipline:


Variable (1): $WINE discloses Standstill EBIT, boosted by COVID. Loyalty of $WINE’s “angels” makes EBIT stickier than some other eComms. Astute SaaS observers will note revenue retention (I assume ~78% on avg) is below B2B SaaS (95-130%). My standstill NPV implies 6.3x EV/EBIT.


Variable (2): A disclosure triumph. If slides could talk, “we reject simpleton requests to under-invest & produce 123% IRR for shareholders that truly like value creation.” Value investors, note what the V stands for in LTV. PV it. I assume payback holds 5 yrs, then slow decay
TRADING
Kostas \U0001f468\u200d\U0001f4bc \U0001f4c8 \U0001f4b8
Kostas 👨‍💼 📈 💸...
@itsKostasWithK
California Gold Rush, the biggest get-rich-quick scheme in American history

How Sam Brannan became the wealthiest man in California without selling a single ounce of gold

/THREAD/


1/ On January 24, 1848, a carpenter named James W. Marshall discovered gold at John Sutter's Mill in Coloma California (close to present-day Sacramento), where he was employed.

Californian residents were the first to rush into the area in late 1848.


2/ By 1849, the word had spread around the world with almost 100,000 gold-seekers and merchants immigrating to California from across the US and abroad, being named forty-niners.

By 1855 the number reached 300,000. It was the biggest immigration movement at the time.


3/ The gold influx into the money supply system rejuvenated the country's economy giving statehood to California.

The rise in population led to an expansion in various sectors, such as agriculture, ranching, and merchandising.


4/ The San Francisco population exploded from 200 residents in 1846 to 30,000 in 1852.

Many cities and infrastructure was built across California.

New methods of mining and transportation were developed creating a technological boom.
TRADING
Paul Essen
Paul Essen
@paul_essen
21 stocks for 2021: Day 9 - Redfin $RDFN

The Bull Case: Redfin calls itself “A Technology-Powered Real Estate Company” whose mission is to “redefine real estate in the consumer’s favor”.
[1/9]

Bull Case Continued: They invented map-based real estate search and have the most visited brokerage website, which translates to low marketing costs. Redfin has a high net promoter score and better repeat business than their competitors.
[2/9]

Bull Case Continued: They have full time agents who are rewarded based on customer satisfaction instead of commission which means their incentives are better aligned with the customer.
[3/9]

Bull Case Continued: Redfin can claim to save customers money (reduced listing fees) and time (more on-time closings) along with offering a complete solution (brokerage, mortgage, title insurance).
[4/9]

Bull Case Continued: Redfin isn’t just an iBuying play. They are prepared for the future of real estate no matter what form it takes: Brokerage, Concierge, Now, Direct. Impressive leadership from CEO Glenn Kelman (CEO for 15+ years).
[5/9]
TRADING
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Nick Huber
Nick Huber
@sweatystartup
I got serious about Twitter on April 12th 2020.

Since that day:

I've raised $5MM and met with over 200 future investors in my real estate deals.

I've done $75k worth of consulting.

And I've met mentors and friends I'll carry with me for life.

What worked for me 👇👇👇

First of all I tried the mainstream advice and built my own blog, podcast, email list, YouTube. Spent 2 years. 500k downloads. Some success.

Got more value out of Twitter in 30 days.

If raising money or in business THIS is the platform.

Okay let’s go:

1. Stay on topic.

The most valuable folks here are here to learn. They curate their feed. They want business and to LEARN.

No fantasy football. No gifs. No pop culture. No one liner jokes.

Be an expert at what you do. Stay on brand.

2. No politics.

At all. Ever. It’s a great way to piss off (and say goodbye) to 1/2 the folks here.

Not everybody feels the way you do and the smartest folks don’t want your opinion. Nothing good comes of it. So avoid it.

3. Be incredibly open

Nobody will steal your ideas. Yes it’s uncomfortable and yes you’ll get challenged.

I shared my profit and loss statements on here. It led to discussions with many brilliant folks in the DMs and several folks who wanted to partner reaching out.
TRADING , INVESTING
GAVNet
GAVNet
@GAValueNetwork
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/18/2021
TRADING
Brother Eddy\u26a1
Brother Eddy⚡
@waronweakness
THE 6 GOLDEN RULES OF MARKET RESEARCH

What you will learn:
> Why making money online is as simple as digging for gold
> Why market research is the treasure map to the gold
> How to find where "X marks the spot" on the map
> How to build your own treasure map

//THREAD//

👇👇👇


Quick PSA: If you get value out of this thread, please be a good Internet citizen and hit that RT button ☝

Now that's outta the way

Let's get started with Tip # 1...

1) Understand WHY

Doing market research is like digging for gold aka that BIG idea that guarantees people will buy from you.

This gold tells us:
> What people think
> How people feel
> What problems they have
> WHAT THEY WILL BUY

If we can answer these questions...

then we will know EXACTLY

> What to build
> Which words we use to persuade them to buy

BEFORE we spend a single minute of our precious time and effort

Building a product
Creating a service offer
Writing a book

Market research = Having our own treasure map to the gold

2) Join their communities

First step to learning more about your customer is to hang out where they hang out.

-Study their lingo
-Identify their problems
-Hear their stories
-Take part in discussions
-Give FREE value
-OBSERVE
TRADING
philippe laffont
philippe laffont
@plaffont
To be a good public investor, you don’t need to be a genius or own a crystal ball but you do have to make a few big calls.

2/ In my case, I started in January of 2000, was up 20pct after the first month, and thinking this was pretty easy. Then the nasdaq dropped from 5000 to below 1000. That was a proper wake up call!

3/ I only made 2 big calls in the first 10 years or so but those were enough. If 90pct of your book goes up 8pct/year (historical public returns) and 10pct doubles, then you are up twice as much as the market and that’s a big number as it compounds.

4/ My first big call was recognizing the bubble in 2000. It took me 12 months but I was ready for 2001/2 once I understood how the excessive financing of dot.coms would eventually affect hardware and semiconductor companies. Seeing how the cobweb ties all the players was helpful.

5/ I missed the rally post 2003 but then stumbled on Apple computer in 2007. At the time I was very annoyed because I had dismissed the iPod and the stock had moved from $25 to $100 (or $1 to $4 post 28-1 splits)
TRADING
Cold Blooded Shiller
Cold Blooded Shiller
@ColdBloodShill
*THREAD*

Scalp vs Swing Intraday trades and FOMO of “I can’t close it’s going higher.”

You’ll find yourself often caught between these feelings.

Looking at LTF for an entry, the market moves +10% and suddenly you find yourself looking to turn it into a swing.


The likely outcome in the MAJORITY of situations is:

Price pumping
Feel great about PNL
Look for higher targets
Price corrects
PNL drops
Either panic close before reversal
Or close at Break Even

The process is damaging to your balance and your psychology.

The reason is that your LTF entry is often unsuited as a swing entry point and if it is, your mentality is not prepared or able to hold for the swings.

This is an issue scalpers have to battle consistently. They will nail 3-4% moves while watching price often run 8-12% after.

You have to understand why you took your entry, what your expectations are and how you can manage the trade.

Converting from a LTF trade into a HTF one comes down to greed. We see green PNL and automatically start getting carried away with expectation.

In these conditions however there needs to be some grace given to that thought process. It’s possible but under management.
TRADING
Edmund Kudzayi
Edmund Kudzayi
@EdmundKudzayi
Yesterday, responding to a Bloomberg article which claimed that Zimbabwe’s ‘trade surplus’ is evidence of progress, I pointed out that a trade deficit is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, it is not. 1/20

I illustrated this with FDI, which can result in trade imbalance. FDI is good but it can create temporary import pressures, a ‘healthy’ trade imbalance. A trade surplus in and of itself is not a measure of economic performance. 2/20

A number of people could not understand how FDI could in any way be related to imports. This thread is for their benefit i.e., @tafadzwamerere, @PatsDaMan, @sabepe83, @AlekeMukunga, @mkhwananzivusa, @muzekepwa and @DzeShe88. 3/20


The first point is that FDI is not limited to financial flows. To grow productive capacity of a country, it can lead to growth of imports of capital and intermediate inputs for industry. Zimbabwe has few industries producing these. 4/20

Those asset and intermediate inputs flows are recorded as imports. A simple example below: 5/20
TRADING
light
light
@lightcrypto
/1 on the advantages of replacing high leverage margin swap/futures positions with options


/2 have heard anecdotes of participants losing large parts of their crypto holdings by chasing the bull market with mistimed leveraged longs and see thousands of nameless participants in the billions in notional that are liquidated on any material move in the markets.

/3 there are two enormous costs to engaging in this behavior:

1) poor traders tend to chase, margin longing after significant price moves up have already happened. combined with high leverage, this means they manage to lose money by being liquidated (force sold) on pullbacks.

This results in somehow losing money longing in a bull market.

2) Derivatives exchanges charge a maintenance margin when you are liquidated to give them a buffer to close losing positions prior to the bankruptcy price.

Any excess goes to the insurance fund. This excess necessitates that margined positions do not capture their full EV.
TRADING
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Robbie Crabtree
Robbie Crabtree
@RobbieCrab
It’s finally here…

A vision...

To turn speaking into a superpower for you.

-In front of investors
-In front of an audience
-in front of every single person

On Deck Performative Speaking applications are

How did we get here?

The journey started in my first year of law school.

Seeing law students struggle to speak in front of the class…

I couldn’t believe my eyes.

So learn the skills, study the best, practice and refine.

Being a trial lawyer taught me what it takes to be a great speaker.

The 3 Cs

-Clear
-Concise
-Confident

Nail these three and good things happened.

Develop a philosophy and then a method.

The philosophy is Performative Speaking.

-Use other art forms as an example to create emotion.

The method is the CAP system.

-Confidence
-Authenticity
-Persuasion

The first two take you 90% of the way.

The last makes you elite.

But that isn’t enough…

Because I needed to teach these skills.

SMU Law needed help teaching persuasive speaking.

They needed help coaching the national mock trial team.

Over 3 years I taught, tested, and iterated.

My students began sweeping best speaker awards.
TRADING
Callie Cox
Callie Cox
@callieabost
Worried about the stock market?

Is this really the top?

Pull up a (virtual) chair and let’s chat 🪑

👇

So. Things are getting a little crazy out there.

TikTokers are spewing financial advice.

Carole Baskin is peddling penny stocks.

Everybody’s like “OMG my mom’s-best-friend’s-cousin made so much money in the market, c’mon it’s so easy!”

Makes you feel a little like this, right?


(couldn't resist the Zoolander reference)

Anyways,

Your portfolio is up, but Wall Street is throwing around the b-word (bubble) and you’re afraid it’s about to pop.

What do you do now?
TRADING , BUBB
Samneet Chepal
Samneet Chepal
@samchepal
1. This legendary $36k call trade led me down a rabbit hole into the world of higher order option greeks to analyze this trade using past historical data. This was a good learning opportunity and I wanted to share some stuff I've been


2. The $36k JAN-29-2021 calls began trading on @DeribitExchange on Oct. 31, 2020 and had an initial delta of around 3%. At this time, BTC’s index price was trading around $13.5k. On this date, it seemed like a long shot that prices could do a ~3x within 90 days.

3. My guess is the buyer of these calls was trading a re-pricing of risk as opposed to speculating that the price of BTC would actually be >= $36k on Jan 29/2021 (one thing we can say with confidence is they were smart and used @tradeparadigm to avoid massive slippage).

4. This thread does an excellent job explaining how traders can make money by trading relative probabilities.


5. If the trader believed the market was pricing too low of a probability for an option reaching ITM, they could purchase options with the intention of selling them before maturity once the market’s expectations become more bullish (as we’ve seen over the past few weeks).
TRADING
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Harneet Singh Kharbanda
Harneet Singh Kharband...
@TraderHarneet
Mistakes i made when i was new to trading..

A thread :

Watched news for tips ( it's ok to see interviews and all, but avoid watching it for tips )

Wanted everyone's view for my trades ( the more views you get, the more confused you will eventually be, focus on your own study )

Over traded ( more number of trades doesn't means over trading... Trading without plan is over trading )

Leverage trading ( it's ok to do it, but should be avoided in first year of trading or atleast till you have proper knowledge of the risk involved )
TRADING
Jeff Geringer
Jeff Geringer
@808sandU3O8
A coda to my tweets this week on #uranium contracting and the carry trade:

We care about how uranium has been bought and sold over the last decade - not just the sale price - because it informs us as to how a period of rapid price increase could develop over the next few years.

Reminder: the carry trade provides three main services.

1. Time shifting - matches supply today w/ demand tomorrow
2. Price formation - provides fixed forward prices in a market not always willing to provide them
3. Risk mitigation - decouples forward supply from mine operations

At some point in the forward price curve, newly mined supply (tied to inflation) is less expensive than financed spot supply (tied to spot price + interest).

At a constant financing rate, a spot price increase brings forward the time at which these two price curves intersect.

This is not controversial - at the locus of increased utility purchasing and decreased supply availability, uranium price goes up and the carry trade becomes less attractive. For lack of a better term, let’s call this a transition from a carry-driven to production-driven market.

A production-driven market might be:

...in contango, with a forward curve driven by mining cost inflation (input costs, depletion).

...in backwardation, with a supply squeeze in the short term but competitive sellers offering cheaper prices in the forward market.
TRADING
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