Possibly the greatest NBER abstract ever written.

The Great Man theory of history.... turns out to have some pretty strong statistical support.

School closures had NO EFFECT (precise null!) on socioeconomic outcomes and future schooling behavior during the 1918 pandemic.

The authors note that school closures were not as long back then.

But also school calendars were far shorter. So idk how it shakes out.

Informing men about the odds their wife will die in childbirth reduces fertility, increases marital satisfaction, and reduces mismatch in fertility preferences within couples (in Zambia).

1/11
The House of Reps approving $2000 relief checks rather than $600 dollars. That’s a big deal. $2000 checks could ease the pain just long enough for millions of Americans to remember this is the good our government can do in moments like these. #velshi

2/11
The bipartisan bill was met by Mitch McConnell at the front door of the senate with the words "The Senate is not going to be bullied into rushing out more borrowed money into the hands of Democrats' rich friends who don't need the help.” #velshi

3/11
The bipartisan bill for $2,000 checks was met by Mitch McConnell at the front door of the senate with the words, "The Senate is not going to be bullied into rushing out more borrowed money into the hands of Democrats' rich friends who don't need the help.” #velshi

4/11
What is, indeed, “rich” is Mitch McConnell - estimated to be around the 9th wealthiest person in congress - and who makes $193,000/yr, talking about people’s “rich friends”.
#velshi

5/11
If you add $2,000 to the $1,200 checks that went out in March, that’s $3200 over 9 months. $11.85/day. Nobody’s getting rich off of that. #velshi

Tax evasion vs Tax Avoidance

What is it & the difference between the 2.

A thread

Tax evasion = Illegal 🚫  Criminal
Tax avoidance = legal ✅ allowed

Tax evasion is an illegal & unlawful practice of not paying tax. A person or business structures their affairs in a way that they don't pay taxes due to SARS. This happens by not reporting their income, deducting frivolous expenses, inflating expenses, underpaying or understating

Tax avoidance on the other hand is a legal & allowed way of minimizing your tax liability. Our tax legislations allow us to structure our affairs in order to minimize your tax liability

E.g. in personal taxes, medical aid, out of pocket, RA deductions, TFSA etc. In VAT, output & input tax provisions allows for payment of lesser taxes. Business are also allowed to deduct allowable expenses, ring fence losses etc in order to minimize their tax liability

🚨FINANCIAL TRUTH: ANTIFA🚨

antifa thugs have been looting and rioting across our nation for several months now.

who sets up and funds these riots?
what is the purpose of them?
who financially benefits from them?

let’s take a deep dive👇🏽

Jim Traficant US Bankruptcy FDR sold USA to the UN International Bankers IMF-

FDR was a Traitor who gave our Sovereignty to United Nations Banksters IMF under The Federal Reserve Act

Dissolving American Sovereignty and our Constitutional

The IPP deal is in final stages.
last week two separate meetings took place by energy and finance teams - one with the PM (on overall reforms of energy sector). The other was with the COAS - specifically on IPPs deal and CD. 1/9

Based on these meetings and IMF's nod, yesterday a proposal is shared with 50 IPPs - pre-94, 94, 2002 and 2006 policy to pay the accumulated CD to materialize IPPs MOUs into agreements. IPPs wanted (out of Rs400-450 bn dues) 1/3rd in cash and 2/3rd in PIBs in a go 2/9

Govt proposed the same in three instalments - 1/3rd in Jan,1/3rd in Jun &1/3rd in Dec. Here IPPs have to sign the agreement based on 1/3rd immediate settlement (within it 1/3rd cash and 2/3rd PIBs) and rest on promises.
But the govt promises are not honored- that is why CD is 3/9

IPPs are mainly on board. Hubco thinks that settlement will take place with some give and take. @MManshaOfficial is saying that we are on board for larger country's interest - and we can use this money for fresh investment. One can safely say that the deal is done. 4/9

Its clearing the existing stock of debt on old IPPs - last time it was done in 2013 - now the whole energy chain may pay dividends- energy stocks at #PSX are rallying today. The elephant in room is 2015 onward projects. Nothing on it yet. 5/9

[Thead] Ben Knapper - Arsenal's Loan Manager.

It is usually the big guys, your Artetas, Edus and Vinais who make the headlines for Arsenal but there are so many more men and women who are putting in their best to make Arsenal successful and Ben Knapper is one of them.

His presence might surprise a few but Ben Knapper would be playing a key role during this transfer window as he would looking after some of Arsenal's brightest prospects in William Saliba and potential Joe Willock and Reiss Nelson.

In this thread, I'll discuss

- The background of Ben Knapper and the post he holds.
- His primary duties.
- His impact.

Ben Knapper first joined Arsenal in 2010 as an Analyst from statistical analysis firm Prozone. He has since then worked his way and was promoted from the post of senior football analyst to newly created post of Loan Manager in February 2019.

Arsenal didn't have a loan manager for a long time, though after observing several top Premier League adopt the new model and employing loan manager and few incidents of mismanagement of players out on loan, Arsenal final created a post of loan manager.

1/ There are a lot of investment sayings that get repeated by individual & professional investors alike.

One I hear parroted over and over again is a variation of “high stock valuations are fine since interest rates are low”.

But did you ever stop and ask, “Is that true”?

2/ This thread was inspired by a tweet poll I did a few years ago, in which I asked, would you still own stocks if they reached 10-year price to earnings (CAPE) ratio valuation multiples of 50-, or 100-times earnings.

3/ And I was shocked, but most said they would still own stocks at 50, and many (a third!) said they would own them at essentially any price (100).

4/ This had me scratching my head as it sounds totally insane.

Most investors use a value approach when it comes to buying assets like cars, houses, etc.

How long would you spend before buying that new 80-inch TV? (OK maybe less now with @wirecutter)

5/ But time spent to think about investing your life savings?

Many are just willing to clickautoinvest into stocks at any valuation level.

Historically investing in stocks at sky-high multiples is a horrible, terrible, no good idea.

A thread on cumulative FII inflows into India in the CY2020

Background  : This was a widely shared link on social media and also tweeted by FM @nsitharaman amid a lot of discussion around the strong foreign inflows in Indian

India received ~1.6 lakh crore in FII flows last calendar year when most Asian and emerging markets witnessed outflows. This is encouraging stuff one would say. However, this is not the complete story.

The total flows in Secondary markets (Debt + Equity but not including FDI deals in primary markets) are marginally positive. It means as yields collapsed, FIIs switched from Indian debt to Indian equities.

In fact, last 6 CYs (2015-2020) net flow in debt & equity is negligible.

Now one may ask what suddenly changed in 2020. Well, Central banks kept the tap open. That's easy answer.

But still the flows became aggressive only in last two months of 2020 - Nov & Dec

Why in last two months?

Two technical things happened:

(a) MSCI Annual review on Nov 10 brought fresh inflows. This happens every year, so was not

https://t.co/nWSFLFFnte

2/ Regarding A. I'm long $TSLA, believe it isn't a bubble and the naysayers are shortsighted and wrong.

Only time will tell about A, but B we already know - $TSLA joined at an ATH of $695 then fell - but it's now at $763, so it ADDED value, not detracted.

BUT..

3/ But the question of whether $TSLA brings risk to the S&P is WRONG by itself. The whole idea of an INDEX FUND like S&P500 is to be passive, and it's THE ACTIVE MANAGER DECISIONS that introduce risk

Being profitable and large TSLA should have been added ON Q2 EARNINGS.
..

4/ Before we analyze implications, consider this:

DataTrek Research estimates that if on Jan 1 2020 an investor had put $5 of every $100 invested in an S&P 500 ETF into $TSLA, their return by Dec 11 2020 would've increased by roughly 31%!
(more by

5/ But that's hypothetical bc $TSLA didn't qualify for S&P at Jan 2020, and 5% is more than its share today.

Tesla DID qualify on Q2 earnings but was admitted after Q3. Comparing 12/21 price ($695) to 9/21 price ($449) is wrong bc by 9/21 price fell after news of not including.

Show me an easier way to make $5000 a month.

This will literally make you $250-$500/hr on weekends depending on your speed and skills.

\\ A Thread \\

Straight to the point.

Go to Instagram.

Filter for 'influencers' (10K to 500K followers).
Do not go for general meme page.

Target the people who have already marketed something on their page & there is no link in their bio.

You found your prospect.

you can pick a niche if you want.

- Fashion
- Food
- Travel
etc.

If they have an option to email them, write a cold email with great first line. @blackhatwizardd & @THETYFRANKEL are the guys you need to study for it.

Bring them on the phone by your email.

Most of these people want to showcase themselves.

Now what is the thing we are selling?

- Landing Page

Convince them that a professional influencer should have a personal branding. This landing page will serve the purpose.

It will be a medium of communication with marketers.

It can showcase your work.

Charge them $1000 for the landing page.

Now you do not know how to create a landing page, you can use Webflow(learn through youtube) drag and drop.

create 10-15 swipe files for your reference. segregate them based on theme.

- Fashion
- Food
- Travel
etc.

just gonna come out and say that it should be considered criminal to force 400 million people into a nine month long period of isolation with no end in sight, no form of easily accessible mental health care, no adequate financial or tenant protections, and cap it off w/$600 each

Quarantine has had astronomically dire consequences on a wide variety of levels. The USD has fallen by 14% and is continuing to plummet, causing a hyper inflation in an already unstable economy. In May, the unemployment rate was nearly 15%—the worst since the Great Depression.

Conservative estimates confirm our homeless population to be at over 500,000, but experts estimate that the number is vastly greater due to lax enforcement of eviction and foreclosure moratoriums across the country and place the number closer to a million.

A survey proved 31% of Americans have experienced anxiety or depression, 26% have experienced trauma/stress, 13% have begun or increased their substance abuse, and 11% have attempted or considered suicide since March. The actual numbers are expected to be much, much higher.

According to Yelp, by May there had been a 60% increase of permanent business closures & over 100,000 businesses have shut down. These are mainly independently owned restaurants, daycares, salons, tattoo parlors and small gyms. 1 in 5 businesses WILL close before quarantine ends.

Nearly time to bid farewell to 2020. Never been prouder to be a @FT science writer - nor more grateful to be able to carry on working. A short, indulgent (sorry!) thread on writing covid...

Starting on Jan 8 with a mystery pneumonia https://t.co/d21b1e3gr4 via @financialtimes

A realisation at the end of Jan that this could be ‘the

...and that healthcare might need rationing. Except I thought this would be a one-off in the spring first wave. Never dreamed we’d be in a worse place nearly a year later.

Remember, we have yet to pay the ‘Xmas mixing’ dividend

But at least a vaccine was in the works. The road was shorter than I thought 😂...free to

...but, until it arrived, we had to learn to operate in a new landscape of risk (free to read)

Just did an assessment of our #health #finances. After a ten-year personal experiment with a health savings account (#HSA) and our employer's high risk insurance option: GOOD CHOICE. I'm definitely not an expert, but if you're curious, here's our experience (a thread):

Our life situation made us right for an HSA. I was single for half the first 5 years, married for the 2nd, when married, both of us on HSA. No children, overall pretty healthy. Here's an article about who an HSA is good for:

I deducted the maximum savings every year from my employer (which I believe was about $6,000). This went into our HSA. For medical expenses, if we had the extra cash, we used it rather than our HSA (as the HSA grows exponentially tax-free, which is a freaking good deal).

Due to the HSA, my hubby and felt free to pursue alternative health care options and therapies that would NOT have been covered under typical medical insurance (invisalign, chiropractor, contact lenses). We ended up skipping or get the cheapest dental/eye coverage.

It also made me think twice about expensive medical procedures: when I had gastro issues several years ago, my doc recommended a colonoscopy. I saw the price & thought, heck, I'm going to try a food elimination diet first. Voila! Problem solved and no need for the procedure.

How'd funds fare in 2020 when viewed through an ESG lens? We assign Globe Ratings, w/'High' (ie 5 globes) going to funds whose holdings court less ESG risk and vice versa for 'Low' (1 globe). Tldr: Funds w/higher ESG ratings beat their M* idx more often than those w/lower ratings

Given this, it's not too surprising that higher ESG-rated funds generated larger avg. excess returns (vs. M* cat. index) in 2020 than lower ESG-rated funds, meaning there was a better payoff to investing in funds that courted less ESG risk. That said, caveats apply...

1st caveat: When we look at success rates by 'intentionality' (ie, is strategy intentionally aiming to incorporate ESG, etc), we find success rates don't vary much by rating. In other words, success didn't depend as much on whether fund was actually *trying* to minimize ESG risk

Along those lines, there was a better payoff to minimizing ESG risk among non-intentional than intentional ESG funds. That is, there was a wider spread in the avg. excess return of higher- and lower-ESG rated non-intentional funds than there was among intentional funds. Nuanced.

Worth noting there are relatively few 'intentional' ESG funds. Of 4,000+ funds I examined, ~460 were classified 'Sustainable Investment--ESG Overall' as of 12/31/19, the starting point for the study. So, non-intentional funds drive the results.

I can't believe this is my first tweet for 2021, but it hits home really hard so lemme share my thoughts and begin by saying that in dating
FINANCIAL CAPACITY IS OFTEN CONSIDERED, specially if you don't come from privilege

A THREAD

(1/X)

Don't get me wrong, money isn't the sole basis of love, but if you live in a country like ours where most are underpaid and inequality is bad, it is pretentious to say that finances are not considered in choosing a partner. So let's try to explore some scenarios:

(2/x)

Scenario 1

Person A meets Person B. They like each other big time. However, because of financial stability, person B wants to fly abroad for better opportunities. Person A can't do LDR.
LOVE STORY ENDS.

(3/x)

Scenario 2:

A wants to climb the corporate ladder. B loves his entry level job, finds meaning in it, wants a frugal life, & spends accordingly. Person A meets person B, they click. They like each other. However A thinks B is mediocre. A lets go. LOVE STORY ENDS.
(4/x)

Scenario 3:

A is in IT (one of the top paid jobs in the country atm). B is in the service sector (which society doesnt reward well) A wants to travel a lot, B has financial limitations. A & B computes travel expenses using a ratio based on their salaries. LOVE STORY WORKS

(5/x)

Insights of a noob:

10 things I've learned from 18 months in the financial services industry.

👇🧵

1/ The financial industry is set up to extract value from you - the key is to learn how to extract value from it.

2/ An understanding of compounding is essential - it can be your best friend, or your worst enemy.

Negative compounding is a thing, it occurs from the buildup of fees and taxes over time (there is a link to an article which explains this in more detail in point 9).

3/ Behaviour is everything - you are an emotional creature not a robot.

@MavenAdviser summed it up perfectly in a recent podcast, 'financial success takes place between your ears, not on a computer screen'.

4/ Behaviour is everything - familiarise yourself with @behaviourgap.

Over the long term markets do not lose money, however investors do.

A study found that over a 20 year period ‘the average investment return was 11.81%. The average investor return was 4.48%.’

Beliefs affect behaviour

Bad behaviour can have detrimental consequences with wealth building

Being aware of your own innocent beliefs is powerful, but only if you apply this knowledge

A thread inspired by @GeorgeDKinder and the @KinderInstitute

1. My self worth is based on what others think of me

Some people define themselves based upon how they guess others see them

When they are convinced that others think poorly of them, such people lack the self-confidence necessary to consistently take action

2. My past = My future

If some people experience a series of setbacks they assume their goals are not achievable

Over time they become dispirited & discouraged, then they avoid situations where failure is a risk

As any significant effort entails risk, such people are then unable to make significant achievements

3. My destiny is controlled by the supernatural

The belief that status in life or even potential as a human is determined by luck, fate, or divine intervention, can rob such people of initiative, making them passive as they wait for "luck" to change