There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security

In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.

What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do

GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations

Lots more to say on #Erasmus and 'replacement' #turingscheme. Students in Northern Ireland may still have access thanks to the Irish government. What about Scotland or Wales? Some considerable barriers here to think about. /1

Erasmus is an EU programme. It is established by a Regulation: a law covering the scope, how the programme works, funding etc over a 7 year period (2014-20). Higher Ed exchanges and Jean Monnet are the best known but also vocational training etc. /2

Participation from non-EU states is possible (Art 24). Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein are in the European Economic Area; Switzerland needs a bilateral agreement. I assume UK would need to be listed similarly to Switzerland in the new Regulation if it wanted to be in. /3

The 'acceding countries, candidate countries and potential candidates' has a specific scope, and does include Kosovo (not yet recognised by all Member States). Turkey in particular has been very active in Erasmus. /4

The European Neighbourhood Policy covers 16 neighbouring states in North Africa, Middle East (including Palestine) and Eastern Europe (except Russia) if a bilateral agreement concluded (yes for some, but not all at the moment). /5

Thanks @Charlesknight for finding this gem.

First one is buy cars made in the UK. How many cars are they expecting me to buy?

How will the cars be made without the parts?

Go on holiday in the UK because going to the EU will be more expensive. This is great advice. Wouldn't have known what to do without it.

Buy more bluefin tuna from Japan. No sure that's strictly environmentally ideal.

I'd just like to place on record that #NoDealBrexit is just about the worst *political* idea I've ever heard. In the 1000% unlikely event I was advising the PM, I would be extremely strongly against.

It's the classic Weak Man's Strong Man decision, like Steve McClaren dropping David Beckham. Sugar rush of the call, then all your problems get much worse.

It supercharges your opponents, allows Labour all the political landscape, is a *vast* gift to the SNP, revives the Lib Dems - all at a stroke.

The public don't want No Deal. You just won an election promising to make it all go away. You're under attack for your competence on Covid. The last thing you need is loads more blame.

You need to move on, convince middle of the road voters who have peeled away. You need to talk infrastructure, jobs, Covid recovery, climate change, hospitals.

1. We are currently staring over the precipice of no deal. Everyone, including many of those who argued for Brexit, understand the damage it would do, especially at the same time as the Covid economic crisis and the end of the transition period. We are facing a perfect storm.

2. It’s pretty clear now that the level playing field is the cause of the deadlock. It seems that the UK and the EU have already agreed a non-regression clause – ie that both sides won’t reduce existing standards on things like environmental protection and workers rights.

3. But the issue is what happens if EU standards diverge from ours in the years ahead and vice versa. In other words, how do you make sure that the playing field that both sides run out onto on 1 Jan remains level in the years ahead?

4. In the Political Declaration both sides signed up to robust level playing field commitments to “prevent distortions of trade and unfair competitive advantages.” That’s why both the UK and the EU should want a mechanism for ensuring that the terms of trade remain fair.

5. The other consideration is that trust was undermined by the row over the Internal Market Bill. Seeking to renege on part of a Treaty you negotiated a year ago is not a very good idea, especially when you’re trying to negotiate a new Treaty with the same partners now.

So now it really is goodbye, and it hurts. On a storm-filled Sunday, here's a thread (OK ! my 3rd in 8 years !) on why Brexit has affected so many of our lives - yours, I’m sure, if you follow me - and the only one I can really talk about with any expertise – my own /1

I grew up in Britain. It comes out in the mince pies which even now are my go-to at Christmas, my never ending search for the perfect cup of tea and my accent when I speak the French I worked on TV and radio in for 30 yrs, even write books in (but not my diary) /2

There will be a part of me that is forever England. But my England was never the England that has so noisily taken over these last few years, parading Union Jacks so noisily in its alarmingly nasty xenophobic newspapers no other country would tolerate /3

My England was full of Sixties sunlight, the Beatles, Mrs Peel and Carnaby St. It was the 70s, watching glam rock on the telly while eating spam by candlelight during the 3 day week when we really were “the sick man of Europe” /4

It was also being called queer and pansy in the school playground and the little boy who somehow understood that foreign languages were his passport to one day being accepted somewhere else. French irregular verbs and German grammar were my visa “out” /5