1. Something that's really struck me in the Brexit negotiations this year is the surprisingly fragile confidence the EU seem to have in the competitive advantage conferred by the single market. Sounds strange, but bear with me.

(Thread)

2. The single market is the most comprehensive trade area in the world. It includes considerable regulatory alignment on products and services, free movement of people etc.

Yet the EU seems to think that a mere FTA would allow post-Brexit UK to outcompete that single market. 🤔
3. Their current position seems to be that unless an FTA is accompanied by extremely onerous level-playing field provisions (explained by @RaoulRuparel here), then an FTA with the UK isn't worth doing because it would be a threat to the single market.

https://t.co/irsRwPApxr
4. But if you voted Remain (as I did), the idea that a mere FTA with, say, enforceable non-regression clauses rather than "dynamic alignment by the back door" is going to give post-Brexit Britain a competitive trading advantage over the single market is quite a strange one...
5. I mean, whatever happened to "non-tariff barriers are more important than tariffs"? Even with an FTA, the UK will face:
- Customs and regulatory barriers
- No free movement
- Rules of origin

Hardly a menu for out-competing the SM, you'd think, even with more freedom on LPF.
6. So what's going on here?

Perhaps, ironically, the EU actually rates the UK's chances of 'making a success of Brexit' by out-competing them quite highly. Despite the clear absence of any desire in the UK for a so-called 'Singapore on Thames' model.
7. And maybe they're right. Maybe the UK will be successful and out-compete the EU (I certainly hope so).

But if you follow the logic, it doesn't seem that the EU has a great deal of faith in the ability of the SM to withstand competition. Or the SM's superiority to an FTA.
8. Another explanation is that they're trying to show Brexit has consequences to deter others from trying to leave. But given that Brexit has *already* dampened hard Euroscepticism on the continent this would suggest a lack of self-confidence that that will remain the case, no?
9. Anyway, I hope there will be a deal. But to re-iterate, an FTA is a huge step down from the single market in trade terms for the UK. The fact that *the EU* seem to think there's a risk the UK will be able to out-compete them from that position deserves scrutiny. (End)

More from Brexit

Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;

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"I lied about my basic beliefs in order to keep a prestigious job. Now that it will be zero-cost to me, I have a few things to say."


We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.

Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)

It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.

Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".