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Bruce Greenwald EPV valuation:

Get a cup of coffee.

Today I will help you understand the Earnings power value framework and how you can implement it in your valuation analysis.

@contrarianEPS @10kdiver
@FI_InvestIndia @Dinesh_Sairam

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Before proceeding, let me tell u a thing. We make two assumptions when using this approach. Those are

1. Current profits are sustainable.

2. No growth (More about this later)

Let's get started.

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Imagine, you have 50 lakhs of cash. You invested 30 lakhs into bonds, gold, real estate, and crypto. You plan to invest the balance of 20 lakhs into a business.

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An owner of a food business in your town planning to sell his biz for 15 lakhs as he was about to retire. You thought to buy that biz.

Looking at the accounts, you have understood that the biz is making 2 lakhs profits yearly.

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As an investor, you demand a minimum of 10% yield from the biz.

Why? Simple. The risk-free govt bond yield is trading at 6%. Since you are taking some risks, you demand an additional 4% return.

Once again, I find that @Maarblek is ahead of me in analysis. As he said a while ago: The only goal the left has now or has ever had is the liquidation of the kulaks (small property owners). This makes sense of the class alignments we see, and the left’s historic failures.

It’s a funny thing that two classes of people tend to join the left: The managerial class, and the lumpenproletariat. In modern terms: tech/educated class + the perpetually precariously employed / job hopper. What do they have in common? They would seem to be class enemies.

What they share is a hatred of the small property owners. On the part of the lumpen, these are often the people he collects a paycheck from (sure, some of them shitty). The lumpen doesn’t work for the elites directly because they demand high education and contract out low skills.

On the part of the managerial class and the elites, however, the small property owner becomes a target when growth in other areas is stalled. That market share is a potential avenue for firm growth once other options for expansion are foreclosed.

The managers promise the lumpens that if they help them overthrow the small owners and consolidate power in mega-firms, the managers will give the lumpens goodies (a small UBI, whatever). The Soviets made the same promise. And perhaps it holds—briefly.

I think the total divorce from reality evinced by these efforts to overturn the election are not a positive sign for the country's political life and I really don't understand the continued "Oh, haha, it's all ridiculous nonsense" in some quarters

There's this reflexive need to denigrate custom because defending it is either duping oneself into going along with "the system" or just dowdy; I don't share that disposition. I agree it's important to keep perspective and recognize the absurdity, but it's also disturbing

Corey Robin, someone who I admire a lot even though I disagree with him, said recently "Well, Trump lacks the sort of emphasis on the power of the will that fascists have." The point is taken: he is lazy, but his will manifests itself in this total denial of reality

Trump's combination of utter cynicism and total belief in nonsense is part of the reason why fascists viewed him as an avatar of their type of politics, maybe he's more a John the Baptist than a Christ but its nonetheless in the same vein

Again, my position is that this not what Paxton calls "classical fascism" so much as some kind of para-fascism, but the idea "Oh it can't be anything like fascism because its manifestly absurd and attracts losers and crackpots" is just self-contradictory

1. Montana Governor

I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years.

There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).

Summarizing:

1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.

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2.Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)

3.Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), …

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versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community transmission (green zone strategy, including localized "fire fighting").

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4.Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal economic activity.

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5.Focusing attention on few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.

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The halal polemics has begun … yet again!
Race and religious bigots will spin to trigger tension
Important to stick to the back of basics of Shari’ah (Islamic jurisprudence) & Research ethics
The relationship between Shari’ah and Fiqh is represented by a tree and its parts.

The roots rep the Shari’ah & its primary sources of legislation-Qur’an &Traditions of the Prophet (Sunnah)
The trunk and branches rep the tools & methodologies (Usul al- Fiqh/foundations of Fiqh & Maqasid/Objectives) used by scholars to derive the fruits (fatwas/rulings)

For e.g. The primary sources constitute the raw ingredients of a medicine
The methodology & tools are how pharmacists process the raw ingredients into a medicine
The resulting medicine is dispensed by doctors.

The meds may be out of date or cause adverse effects.
It warrants an alternative prescription.
The relevance of a fatwa would dep on its quality, the societal context & its ability to effectively achieve Maqasid Shari’ah-bringing benefit (maslahah) or removing harm (mafsada).

The 2nd Maqasid Shari’ah aka Priorities of Islamic Law is the preservation of life
Global-70 Million cases & 1.6 million deaths
M’sia-78K cases & 396 deaths
A #COVID19 vaccine is one of the solutions to end the pandemic apart from masking, distancing and hygiene

X : Do you think cloud will decentralise?
Me : Already has - started with regions and AZs and is now rapidly expanding into outpost, greengrass, EKS anwhere.
X : No, I mean many providers.
Me : There are two forms of decentralisation - provision and control (i.e. authorities) ...

... what is happening is decentralisation of provision (i.e. cloud everywhere, at the edge) but under centralised authorities (Amazon, Alibaba, MSFT, Google etc).
X : What about decentralisation of control?
Me : Many companies working to a common standard ...

... that was the dream of OpenStack but they blew that on day one creating a collective prisoner dilemma. They are trying to recorrect this with K8s but the cloud has moved on, higher up the stack ...

... so, the idea of a marketplace of many different companies each having authority is ... wishful thinking by past vendors and clients they've hoodwinked. Maybe in 15-20 years we will get another go ... open source is a long game ...

... more likely is many points of provision i.e. companies offering EKS anywhere on a utility basis but under centralised authority e.g. AWS.

So, yes, the cloud is going to edge, has been for sometime but it'll be AWS / Alibaba / MSFT cloud that is everywhere.

This is the story of a CONTROLLING mother who has DESTROYED the lives of many trans kids, including potentially, her own.

And all based on ASSUMPTIONS of @TaviAndPort, a service she’s not yet entered!😤

Her prejudice goes ‘mask off’ in this article...
➡️ https://t.co/DhLm5avLck

First up, my heart goes out to ‘Angela’s’ child. It is exactly *because* of parents like this, that Gillick exists - to allow young people body autonomy and agency over their own lives SEPARATE from controlling parents!

She’s right - she absolutely HAS taken away her child’s rights. Not only that, she’s also taken away the rights of THOUSANDS of other children and their parents to make choices about what’s right for them!

And all because she can’t handle the thought of her child being trans.

‘Angela’ doesn’t give a damn about the rights of parents! If she did, she wouldn’t have taken away the rights of parents SUPPORTING their trans kids! 😫

What about those parents? The ones who have sat on suicide watch while their child counts the days to getting medical help?

Let’s be absolutely clear here - The reason she didn’t tell her child, is because she knows it would absolutely DESTROY her relationship with them. She wanted to go behind their back to exert CONTROL over her nearly adult child, who legally had autonomy over their own body!

Second Empire architecture in Europe is an architectural style rooted in the 16th century Renaissance, which grew to its greatest popularity in Europe in the second half of the nineteenth century and early years of the twentieth century.

As the style evolved from its origins, it acquired a mix of European styles, most notably the Baroque, often combined with mansard roofs and low, square based domes. It derived its name from the era of the Second French Empire.

As the style evolved from its origins, it acquired a mix of European styles, most notably the Baroque, often combined with mansard roofs and low, square based domes. It derived its name from the era of the Second French Empire.

Burgtheater, Vienna, designed by Gottfried Semper and Karl Freiherr von Hasenauer and completed in 1888, is a prime example of the Second Empire style

1. How The Irish🇮🇪, British 🇬🇧 & World🌏 Have Had The Wool Pulled Over Their Eyes 👀 By The Media 🧻 In The Biggest Social Experiment Ever Undertaken 🧵1/24

2. I have to admit to being fascinated seeing how easily people have been taken in since March of this year by the propaganda in our media. My own saving grace was that I haven’t really watched TV or bought the newspaper in years.

3. If I had tuned into our National Broadcaster RTE and believed everything I watched, I expect I would be in the exact same position as 99% of the population. Swallowing everything and questioning nothing.

4. Our newspapers, the IT & Independent, have just promoted non stop fear. Good journalism has died a death and now what appears in the papers are merely puff pieces and propaganda whilst successfully psychologically manipulating the 99%

5. In an upcoming thread🧵 this week I’ve actually analysed the headlines and words that the IT has used for the last 9 months when discussing the pandemic. You will be blown away by some of the data.

As someone who actually grew up in China in 1980s, I can actually talked abt how commemoration of Nanjing Massacre changed inside China. I will make a thread

I was born in Oct 1976. 1 month after Mao died. I went to elementary school in China in 1982. my 1st to 4th grade was during honeymoon period btw Japan and China. We learn abt horrors of Hiroshima bombing and how Japan was a victim of US Imperialism

1985 was a pivotal year in Sino-Japanese relations. On the 40the year of Japanese surrender, Japanese PM Yasuhiro Nakasone visited Yasukuni shrine for the 1st time after WW2 Japanese war criminals had been enshrined there in 1978.

Another development was discovery in 1980s of 1 the most notorious Japanese war crime: Unit 731, biological and chemical weapon research unit of Imperial Japanese Army that performed lethal live human experiments on Chinese and Allied prisoners in China

In 1986, the 1st mainland China film on KMT fighting Japan, 血战台儿庄abt Battle of Tai'erzhuang, 1st major Chinese victory over Japan immediately aft Nanjiang Massacre came out. I learn abt Nanjing Massacre that year, I was 10.

1/ As Brexit talks enter what might be their last few hours, the key hurdle to overcome is how to agree on what the EU calls 'managed divergence' and the UK has dubbed 'lightning tariffs'. Despite the doom and gloom, there are signs the sides aren't quite as far apart as appears.

2/ The EU has dropped its insistence on a 'ratchet clause' which would have formalised the principle both sides should keep up with each other's standards. It's now ready to cater for divergence in the future so long as there are strong safeguards to rebalance unfair competition.

3/ This is a shift from the EU, which previously rejected managed divergence as too messy and risky for its economies. They worried it would create constant uncertainty for them. It thus represents a fair departure from the EU's opening position on LPF.

4/ There is a difference between having a commitment to match standards hard-wired into the deal, failure to comply with which would be a breach of the agreement, and a mechanism written into the text catering for a decision to diverge and accept rebalancing measures in return.

5/ What the sides are now trying to thrash out is how unfair competition would be defined, the process for triggering rebalancing measures, and how extensive they'd be. The EU originally wanted the Commission to have the unilateral right to apply them - hence 'lightning tariffs'.

'Farmers Protests'.
the bitter truth, probably -
(COPIED from a friend's wall)
I am still not clear about the issues involved in the Farmer's agitation. So, I asked a friend of mine, who besides engineering is a farmer from Abohar - Fazilka region of Punjab.

Now, after retirement, he is a full-time farmer.
This is what he told me.
"I have been actively farming for almost two decades now and I have witnessed many things happen at APMC’s.
I have seen classifications of C grade grain miraculously change into B grade grain.

Similarly, I've also witnessed the weighbridge weigh in the empty truck at 39 tons & the full truck at 55 tons and later found that the unloaded truck weighed 43 tons at another weighbridge.
Yes I know, you know what I know. Yet let me tell you more abt what you may already know.

There are over 30,000 registered adtiyas in Punjab.
These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub-agents or sidekicks or people who wouldn’t have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000. There are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab.

330,000 / 1500 is about 220 people on average per village doing the work of middlemen.
Why is this the case?
It’s a long story but someone needs to begin talking about this at some time.
We had a food shortage and a ship to mouth existence until the 1970s.

[THREAD] In our last thread, we talked about the physical symptoms of mental health. Let's focus this one on the psychological symptoms, mainly intrusive and racing thoughts. Why do they happen? What are the solutions for them?

While physical symptoms can be very hard to deal with, psychological ones are not easy. Intrusive thoughts are some of the most troubling to deal with. It is important to note that every single person on this planet gets intrusive thoughts. No exceptions!

Why do they seem to impact some more than others? That's because in someone who does not have anxiety, they will simply overlook these thoughts. They know they are thoughts that they won't act on. However, in someone who is suffering from anxiety, those thoughts will stick.

That's because the intrusive thought(s) will induce a lot of anxiety, and the more emotion we attach to a thought, the more likely it is to be saved in our memory and come back often. Therefore, a thought that should have left right away stays for a long time.

The reason why intrusive thoughts are scary to begin with is because they are often of sexual, violent, and dark thoughts. Therefore, we get scared that we may lose control and act on these thoughts or turn into a bad person. However, the fact that they are scary means a lot.