I have been working on pandemic outbreaks for 15 years.

There is a misunderstanding of the difference between the response in much of the West, versus successful countries (including New Zealand and Australia).

Summarizing:

1.Reactive versus proactive and goal oriented.

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2.Mitigation (slowing transmission) versus elimination (stopping transmission)

3.Gradually responding to increasing levels of infection by imposing greater restrictions which enables the infection rate to grow (red zone strategy), …

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versus starting with high restrictions to arrest transmission and relaxing restrictions only when the number of new cases is so low that contact tracing or localized short term action can stop community transmission (green zone strategy, including localized "fire fighting").

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4.Trying to keep economic activity and travel as open as possible but perpetuating the economic harm and imposing yoyo restrictions, versus making an initial sacrifice of economic activity and travel in order to benefit from the rapid restoration of normal economic activity.

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5.Focusing attention on few individuals resistant to social action because of shortsightedness or selfishness, versus recognizing the vast majority do the right thing if given clear guidance and support, which is what matters for success, as elimination is a robust strategy.

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In Europe, schools are closing as studies show schoolchildren can play a significant role in spreading infections

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As U.S. authorities debate whether to keep schools open, a consensus is emerging in Europe that children are a considerable factor in the spread of Covid-19—and more countries are shutting schools for the first time since the spring.

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Closures have been announced recently in the U.K., Germany, Ireland, Austria, Denmark and the Netherlands on concerns about a more infectious variant of the virus first detected in the U.K. and rising case counts despite lockdowns.

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While the debate continues, recent studies and outbreaks show that schoolchildren, even younger ones, can play a significant role in spreading infections.

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"The recent shutdown of schools was especially dramatic in England. U.K. PM Boris Johnson initially planned to keep elementary schools there open after the Christmas break, but changed course amid soaring infections. After one day, schools were closed until further notice

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UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

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https://t.co/D8DXVvBeew

50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

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Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

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Essential to stop the UK variant: 50% higher transmission will lead to more cases, more hospitalizations, more ICU cases, more deaths, and greater economic costs.

Independent SAGE's plan for the UK variant

With the new Covid variant everywhere, it's not enough to just wait for the vaccine | Stephen Reicher

How did India go from 90,000 cases per day to just over 10,000?

Answer is compelling

The big picture: Three things are important to stop the pandemic: Travel restrictions (International), travel restrictions (domestic), and strong local lockdowns where there are outbreaks

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It is time to recognize the scientific basis of India's success and give it its due. With the number of new cases in India leveling recently, the urgency is great to complete the elimination process so that a new surge does not occur.

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Should India join countries in Asia and Oceania in elimination, 50% of the world would become COVID free, and provide an example for emulation that is surely unexpected by western observers.

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Through swift Government action of restricting/regulating movement and by increasing public health capacity to meet the increasing demands of the pandemic, India leveraged its strengths to mitigate the impact of the pandemic.

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In particular: Severe restrictions on travel, stopping gatherings, targeted localized lockdowns, school closures, effective public communication, improvements in case identification,

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