Long Thread on Farmers protests & Agri reforms: What is the protest all about? Who gets impacted & how? Why are protests concentrated in Punjab & Haryana? Are these really farmers or traders losing grip on monopoly? Are farmers being misled? Let numbers do the talking. Here we go

A top-down view of Indian production is in order here. What does India’s agriculture produce in a year? I like the below chart for FY 2015. Now to understand the complexity, we’ll have to work with one crop & dig details. Let’s work with Wheat.

In 2020, India is looking at 105 million tons of Wheat produce vs 94 mn tons in 2015. What does the growth look like? See below the YoY growth of wheat in India. A 105 mn tons in 2020 will bust the chart below. Forget nay-sayers,Indian agriculture is doing great production.

Something is working well when production goes up consistently. However,while supply is great, demand is not growing as much. Look at the wheat consumption in India. As you see, the demand is consistently below supply by ~ 10 mn tons. Who needs this extra 10% wheat? Not Indians.

Can we export? Unlikely! This is where it gets complicated. Let’s see the United States Dept of Agriculture report on agriculture.The European Union, China, and India accounted for a little over 50 percent of the world’s wheat production (762 mn tons) in 2018/19.

#FarmersAgitation #FarmerPolitics #FarmersProtestHijacked Learn the truth.
Arhtiyas (commission agents) who have been the main link between farmers and procurement agencies in the two states of Punjab and Haryana, launched their campaign against the Centre’s agri-marketing

ordinances early as the three bills cleared by Parliament will adversely affect their business. There are over 30,000 registered Arhtiyas in Punjab and Haryana who are deeply entrenched in the system. They exercise a strong influence on agricultural activities and the politics of

both states. These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub agents or sidekicks or people who would not have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000. But there are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab. 330,000 / 1500 is about 220 people

on average per village doing the work of middlemen.
Why is this the case?
We had a food shortage and a ship to mouth existence until the 1970’s. Norman Borlaug pioneered a variety of wheat which gave 10 X the yield but needed 3X the fertiliser. The Punjab was chosen as the

battleground against hunger. Enterprising Sikh farmers worked hard to Create what we know as the green revolution. Since there were huge shortages laws were made which didn’t allow for stockholding or selling at farm gates. Essential Commodities Act - APMC Act (farmers were

“In context of media reporting, farmer killings are the most reported type of murder in SA. Research by minority white-rights org. AfriForum found more than 70% of farm murders were reported in the press - compare this to femicide, where less than 20% of murders ever appeared.”

“Farm murders are an extremely controversial topic. Partly because, for an extended period, SAPS stopped providing official data on farm attacks & farmer killings - which opened floodgates for false information, speculation & rumours of a government conspiracy against farmers.”

“There is also ongoing debate as to what does or does not qualify as a ‘farm attack’, who qualifies as a ‘farmer’, and how many ‘farms’ should or shouldn’t be included in such data.”

“But, related to the above, it is also because the victims of such attacks are often white (this should not come as a surprise, given that, even as of late 2917, 72% of privately owned agricultural land in SA was held by white owners)...”

“As a result, farm attacks have increasingly become framed as race crimes, or ‘hate crimes’ against whites.” - pg 171 - 171, ‘Femicide in South Africa’

Ever wondered how MSP for crops is calculated ?

Below is an attempt to present a simplified view, followed by some pertinent questions (just to have better understanding, not taking sides)&

The MSP is usually based on the recommendations by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP

This estimation is usually done based on three types of calculation methods. These are A2 method, A2+FL method and C2 method.

As per the A2 method, MSP is set 50% higher than the amount farmer spends on farming including spending on seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, and labour.

C2 method includes A2 factors + economic value of the efforts of family members working on the farm + the value of other spending including rent and other assets. After calculating these, MSP is set at 50% above the derived amount.

A2+FL method is middle ground between the other methods were the MSP is set 50% higher than the amount that derives the amount farmer spend on farming on seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, and labour and the value of labour provided by the family members for agriculture.

To the office-goers who think the #FarmersProtest is misguided and that the laws are actually good for them. Imagine this: Imagine that the government, without asking you or anyone, passed laws that made it possible for your employer to pay you as little as ten rupees a month.

Now imagine that when you said this was unfair, they told you this is for your own good because you have also been given the freedom to work anywhere in the world, for any company of your choice. They also tell you that if you want, you can even work for individuals.

Now, I am sure this was really easy for you to imagine if you work over the internet. But in order to really understand this, imagine what would happen if you couldn't. What if you had to go to work physically every day and what if your work involved physical movement of goods.

I think you will be extremely pissed. I think you will not like it at all. You have a life that involves commuting to work. You have your expenses sorted out. It is easier for you to deal with your salaried life than to manage ten thousand work engagements spread out all over.

Now imagine that you told the government you don't like this decision and that you will like things to go back to the way they were. Imagine you are ignored completely. Imagine you gather up your fellow office-goers and march to the seat of power to make your voice heard.

'Farmers Protests'.
the bitter truth, probably -
(COPIED from a friend's wall)
I am still not clear about the issues involved in the Farmer's agitation. So, I asked a friend of mine, who besides engineering is a farmer from Abohar - Fazilka region of Punjab.

Now, after retirement, he is a full-time farmer.
This is what he told me.
"I have been actively farming for almost two decades now and I have witnessed many things happen at APMC’s.
I have seen classifications of C grade grain miraculously change into B grade grain.

Similarly, I've also witnessed the weighbridge weigh in the empty truck at 39 tons & the full truck at 55 tons and later found that the unloaded truck weighed 43 tons at another weighbridge.
Yes I know, you know what I know. Yet let me tell you more abt what you may already know.

There are over 30,000 registered adtiyas in Punjab.
These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub-agents or sidekicks or people who wouldn’t have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000. There are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab.

330,000 / 1500 is about 220 people on average per village doing the work of middlemen.
Why is this the case?
It’s a long story but someone needs to begin talking about this at some time.
We had a food shortage and a ship to mouth existence until the 1970s.

A farmer from Abohar - Fazilka region of Punjab has the following to say..
I have been actively farming for 2 decades now & I have witnessed many things happening at the APMC’s..I have seen classification of C grade grain miraculously change into B grade..
Similarly I have also

witnessed the weigh bridge weigh in the empty truck at 39 tons and the full truck at 55 tons and later found that the unloaded truck weighed 43 tons at another weigh bridge.
There are over 30,000 registered arthiyas in Punjab.
These 30,000 employ another 3,00,000 sub agents or

sidekicks or people who wouldn’t have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000. There are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab.
So 3,30,000 divided by1500 is about 220 people on average per village doing the work of middlemen.

Why is this the case? It’s a long story and high time people are made aware.
We had a food shortage & a hand to mouth existence until the 1970’s.
Norman Borlaugh pioneered a variety of wheat which gave 10 X the yield but needed 3X the fertiliser.

The Punjab was chosen as the battleground against hunger. Enterprising Sikh farmers worked hard to create what we know as the Green Revolution.
Since there were huge shortages, laws were made which didn’t allow for stockholding or selling at farm gates.

So why is the government so focused on Love Jihad in UP when it faces a massive threat on the farm bills? Well, the two are somewhat connected.

Thread

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Chaudhary Charan Singh originally forged what was called the MAJGAR alliance (Muslim, Ahir (Yadav), Jat, Gujjar and Rajput) to advocate middle farmer interests in UP. It was based more on interests than on identity.

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The Muslims and the Jats were the cornerstones of this alliance, which through fractured by various factors including Mandal endured almost up to 2013 riots, and still voted

Enter, the love jihad narrative.

This fascinating article traces exactly how what was until then a South Indian story was spread in Muzzafarnagar by the BJP using pamphlets and party workers in the run up to the Muzaffarnagar riots to polarise.



The 2013 riots and subsequent displacement fractured what was left of the alliance and gave the BJP entry into UP.

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Farm Acts, Let’s Spread Reality

1. The Farmers Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill

Allow farmers to sell their produce outside d Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC)

@TajinderBagga @KapilMishra_IND @MODIfiedVikas

#HonestFarmersWithPmModi

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APMCs r Govt Controlled Mandis. So farmers clearly hv more choice who dey wanna sell NOW

APMC is an obsolete institution has now become farmers oppressor, a monopoly cartel fixing low prices for d farmers' produce, forcing distress sales, 1st good Pt

#HonestFarmersWithPmModi

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2. The Farmers (Empowerment & Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance & Farm Services Bill

Dis Bill makes provisions for d setting up of a framework for contract farming

Farmer & an ordained buyer can strike a deal EVEN before d production happens

#HonestFarmersWithPmModi

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3. The Essential Commodities (Amendment) Bill 2020

The FPTC (Promotion & Facilitation) Ordinance allows intra-state & inter-state trade of farmers produce beyond d physical premises of APMC markets

State Govts can’t levy any market Fee/Cess outside APMC areas

3rd good Point

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Benefits

1 Can avoid APMC/Middleman & sell d produce anywhere to anyone

2 Bypass d Essential Commodities Act & be free to store inventory

3 Free to make contracts & transfer risk to Businessmen in deals made over a crop EVEN before yield is made

#HonestFarmersWithPmModi

Digging out old unrelated images and videos and circulating them with a false narrative has become a booming cottage industry. Thread on the misinformation that has been spread to discredit farmers' protest and how #AltNewsFactCheck has busted each claim.👇1/n

In the right-wing mind, the easiest way to malign is to manufacture a Muslim angle. So an old photo that predates the bills was dug out & falsely shared BJP office bearers and supporters as Muslim man disguised as Sikh to participate in the agitation. 2/n

80+ yo 'Shaheen Bagh Dadi' still rattles the RW like no other. So a photo of an elderly Punjabi woman was shared with the false claim that she is Bilkis Bano and is paid to join the protest. KanganaRanaut, GaruavPradhan were among those who shared it. 3/n

When the Muslim angle failed, Khalistan angle was pulled out. An old video of pro-Pak, Khalistan chants during cricket World Cup match in UK was shared as farmers' protest. BJP's PritiGandhi, PunitAgwaral etc shared this. 4/n

A photograph shot during anti-CAA protests in Shaheen Bagh in February was shared with the false claim that it shows 'Hathras Bhabhi' at farmers' protest. BJP leaders were joined by supporters like Shefali Vaidya in spreading the misinformation 5/n

Agricultural Acts - twisted facts Vs facts.

1. farmer can not sell his bag of rice in Assam from AP since it is one national market hence the act is not useful is twisting of fact.

Fact is with market yard check posts gone there will be freedom of movement of goods .

With freedom to buy outside market yards and within market yards competition will be more benefitting the farmer with a better price .market yards also improve their performance since there is competition . #FarmersAct2020
#DelhiFarmersProtest

Agricultural laws - apprehensions -truth

2. Apprehension .
The present government market yards will be forced to shut down due to the new act .
Truth
This is not correct . Government market yards have Freeland given by government , corpus from market fee .

Nominated market committee chairmen who till now are milking the market yards for personal benefit now be responsible and responsive to farmers since alternative of selling out side market yard is available . #AgriculturalLaw #DelhiFarmersProtest

#Agriculturallaws - Apprehensions - Truth

3.Apprehension
Ambanis and Adanis will set up private markets . Agricultural commodities will go into corporate hands

Truth
Private capital comes only when there are profits . Market yards do not seem to be very profitable.

The Farm Law Protests mask the Blatant Inequality of Rural Punjab where Dalit farm labour derisively known as seeri are oppressed.

If these poor labour demand any pay increase, they are boycotted by landlords often with collusion of district administration.

When these labourers start demanding pay increments, the landlords rain down on them with majoritarian might. Any collective action is crushed with village-wide “boycotts.”

The boycotted Dalit farm labour of Punjab are unable to procure sauda, the household supplies. Milk becomes out of reach, so does fodder for the precious livestock. They are barred from using the common shamlatland for grazing the paltry cows and goats which they own.

In village Mahan Singh Wala, this rural apartheid was announced by the gurdwara. In places like Amirke, Faride Wala, Dhotian, Sardarpura, Gandav, Sakohan, Lehra Khana and Khiva Khurd, the labourers either faced violence or had to walk miles to procure the household supplies.

All these boycotts were recorded within a matter of few months in the year 2012.

In fact, over time, this has become a time-tested political strategy in rural Punjab and such boycotts could potentially last for years.

The farmer is not our saintly anadata!

Yes they deserve respect for what they do but it's fact that he doesn't do anyone else a favour by growing foodgrains. Remember farming is his occupation that earns him a livelihood that provides for his family. Just like the rest of us.
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No one is forcing a #farmer to carry on farming if he can't make it pay for itself.

We have witnessed farmers migration for better life in states like Bihar, Jharkhand and UP.

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We know that farmers are given free power, free water, subsidies on seed, subsidies on fertiliser, MSP, and others. Farmers are not even charged income tax.

Even after all this benefits if "Large Farmers" can't be profitable there is something wrong in their intention!

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It is true that farming is subsidised around the world. But not to the extent that is being demanded in India. Both in absolute terms and in relative terms our farm subsidies are very high.

It is still ok but the benefits should be given to small and marginal farmers

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We need to allow consolidation of farm holdings and our subsidies need to be rationalised.

More than our farmers it is the landless labour of rural and urban India that deserves our sympathy and government support.

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1. Political: UCC likely to see huge protests from non-majority communities, perhaps equal to or more intense than land reforms and agri reforms protests.

2. If Govt stands firm - different matter. If not, yet another capitulation and significant loss of political currency.

3. Also with the likely fallout and necessary dealing with it, certain that no currency will remain to push any further agenda related to pro-Hindu constitutional changes - likely even in 2024+

4. Electoral: Likely massive favour amongst Hindus because somehow UCC is thought of as being good for Hindus.

5. Absolute polarization of non-Hindus guaranteed.