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If you are someone who spends more time on analyzing markets during trading, then this for you. Certain traders will create their own bullish or bearish view in their mind but seek confirmation for their trades which is called as confirmation bias. #tradingpsychology 1/15


We do not like people or information that contradicts our thoughts. We like them when they confirm what we think. Hence, we tend to place more weight on information that confirms our trade position. Example- You think market is bullish & wanted to go on a long position,

Next a new bullish bar prints on the chart. You would think "Yes, my bullish proposition is still valid" (even though this bullish bar is smaller range)

A bearish bar prints. But you think "this bar lacks momentum" (because you already have firm belief that market is bullish)

One more bearish bar follows, pushing against a support level. But you would think "the support level is holding" Bullishness confirmed. Buy more! (even though this bar closed below the support level with clear momentum.)
I tend to agree with this - of course many things can still go wrong...but (certainly on the UK side) as the list of outstanding issues decreases and as the cost of no deal becomes more apparent deal momentum will increase.


I find it most amusing that people invest so much value in public statements, briefings, tabloid headlines, the tweets of obscure backbenchers etc. Cherchez les fundamentals!

There is a deep vein of analytical pessimism in one particular direction, which, whether correct or not, is noteworthy. On the one hand, a firm belief in the fundamentals - gravity exists - but on the other hand those fundamentals are not meaningful to the final decision.

But gravity does exist! Whether one likes it or not. We do not have wings. Or feathers. And the realisation of the fundamentals will impact the political calculation (though timing differences may apply).

You don’t have to invest any particular optimism or see any virtue in the principal players to make this point.