We've been tracking the macro price reversal since summer using on-chain. Now what clues can it provide us in our effort to identify the macro price peak over the coming months?

First we'll start with behavioral trends and then everyone's favorite, price targets.

[THREAD 1/22]

Over the summer, we tracked the re-accumulation phase, as supply flowed to strong hands, made possible by a slew of new supply-related metrics.

One of the early red flags I'll be looking for is a sharp decline in illiquid supply shock ratio and highly liquid supply shock ratio.

Another new metric created over summer is the LTH supply shock ratio. After reaching new highs (macro supply shock) it appears we are starting to top out in the metric, usual bull market behavior.

But how can we utilize this moving forward?

We can apply trendlines to the LTH supply shock ratio.

Note that we've generally found macro bottoms along the lower trendline of the ratio, and tops around the upper trendline.

Would be looking for expansion towards that upper trendline to start getting cautious.

Can also look at the Supply Delta, created by @caprioleio, which uses 720-day (2 year) moving averages to smooth out and capture signals from the difference between LTH/STH dynamics.

In the BMC Q3 Livestream today, the CEO of $MARA said several of the largest utilities in North America have teams researching #bitcoin mining and co-location.

In other words, on-site bitcoin mining as a utility load balancer and profit

The CEO of $MARA also said he believes that power companies will likely become some of the largest bitcoin miners/hosters over time. I think that's true (in addition to a healthy amount of off-grid miners).

There are always-on sources of power like nuclear, hydro, geo, and then variable power like solar/wind.

Demand fluctuates too.

During times when power supply exceeds demand, utilities need a way to profitably use that power, or they waste it. Enter co-located bitcoin mining.

Bitcoin miners, unlike most other electricity consumers, can co-locate at power generators, and can easily shut off if demand reaches supply.

This strengthens the grid and makes always-on power sources more cost-effective, in lieu of efficient utility-scale battery storage.

The reason to do it on-site of the source of power generation is that it eliminates transmission loss and duplicate security for btc miners. A profitable on-site load balancer.

This is already happening with flare gas and will increasingly happen with utility power providers.

When Satoshi Nakamoto wrote of #Bitcoin:

"It might make sense just to get some in case it catches on"

WHO WAS HE WRITING TO?

A thread 👇👇👇

"The real trick will be to get people to actually value the BitCoins so that they become currency," the Texan cryptography researcher had written to Satoshi. 1/

In 2013, Israeli researchers thought they'd linked recent transactions to an address owned by Satoshi, because it had been active in the very first week after the launch of Bitcoin.

But it wasn't Satoshi's. 2/

The person running Bitcoin that first week of January 2009, right after Satoshi and Hal Finney, was Dustin Trammell. 3/

Trammell, known as I)ruid (“druid”), had followed the attempts of earlier online currencies with much interest, even writing at length about the deficiencies of his favorite project, the Liberty Dollar, in 2008: 4/

As Bitcoin price hitting another ATH, people are still talking about Bitcoin’s negative impact on environment.
Bixin group currently manage 2.5% of entire global Bitcoin network through our mining operation, and here are some thoughts:

We always hear an argument saying Bitcoin consumes more energy than XYZ, therefore it’s inefficient. You have to look at two things in this argument:
1, What type of energy does Bitcoin is consumes?
2, Where would that energy go without Bitcoin?

To answer first question: as miner, our primary goal is to use cheapest electricity rate available, but it just happens to be that renewable energy(Hydro power) and other excessive/waste energy(similar to flare gas) are cheapest. Here is an example of this👇

In China, miners migrate to different regions based on season. During summer mining operations are mostly based in Sichuan & during winter it’s primarily based in XinJiang/Inner Mongolia. During rainy season, SiChuan produces Excessive Hydro power. Key words: EXCESSIVE & HYDRO.

The problem is winter, there is not enough rain, so miners needs to move to other regions such as XinJiang & Inner Mongolia, and these regions are currently producing more than 50% of their electricity through thermal energy, aka...burning coal. BUT👇

1/ MicroStrategy has announced a $600M convertible bond raise in order to buy even more Bitcoin

How does this compare to their previous offering?
And is this their last?

2/ First, a convert bond starts as a bond then "converts" to equity. The company pays lower interest rates b/c of this potential conversion. Aka the company will pay for it later w/ equity dilution. A company will choose this route if they have bad credit or expect high growth.

3/ In Dec 2020, MSTR announced their first convert bond offering for the explicit purpose of buying Bitcoin. Citi immediately downgraded MSTR to a “sell” recommendation. The market had a much more bullish take

4/ Investor appetite was so strong that MSTR increased the offering from $400M to $550M w/ the option for another $100M. All of this was filled for a total $650M offering

5/ MSTR also priced their bonds insanely low. Interest was 0.75% / yr. Payments were ~$4M /yr for a company w/ an operating income of ~$40M. That's 10x coverage. 2x is considered strong

Welcome to a new Legislative Day in the Senate of the Federal Republic of Nigeria!

Senate President @DrAhmadLawan leads the Principal Officers into the Chambers, takes the official prayers and begin the day's proceedings at 10:43am.
#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senator Isah Jibrin moves for the adoption of Votes and Proceedings for Wednesday, 10th February, 2021.

Senator Nora Dadu'ut seconds.
#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senator Sirajudeen Ajibola (@DrSRJ_) cites Order 43 to inform the Senate on the demise of former Senator Adebayo Salami who represented Osun Central Senatorial District

Senate resolves to:
Observes one minute silence in honour of the late Senator.
#TodayInSenatePlenary

Senate now moves into Presentation of Bills for First Reading
#TodayInSenatePlenary

The baby mamma and the words. I loved this person regardless of what she put me through and this is the kind of emotional abuse I had to endure. When I say I'm not okay, I mean it

I'm the bread winner, I pay for everything. I made sure she has a social life by staying home with our daughter and she brought men into our lives, married men included

When I'm good and ready, I'll try answering each of you. I'm not okay right now. I need to be in the right state of mind when I answer your questions and accusations

I was gonna take my time and try to answer everyone of you but I can see there's a lot of formed opinion on who she is, on what happened, what I did to trigger her. In so saying I'm going to take a step back and say a few things that might bring light to the situation

1.We have been dating for 6 years
2. When I met her she didn't have tattoos
3. There are certain things that happened to her before we met that I can't mention.
4. She wasn't always this person
5. To all those who said I'm toxic, yes you're right I am, abuse does that to you

https://t.co/Lhn4i1EGfq Time for a thread. 1/13

I read this article so you don't have to. 2/13

Can quantum computers attack crypto in ways that current supercomputer clusters can't? Yes. 3/13

But quantum computers don't exist yet (as far as we know), and they can only meaningfully attack some crypto algorithms -- typically public key algorithms. Except for rare edge cases, symmetric crypto remains mostly unaffected. 4/13

There is an active domain of research called 'post-quantum cryptography'. It is populated by mathematicians and computer scientists, who develop cryptography that can serve as a drop-in replacement for the affected algorithms. 5/13

How does @RobinhoodApp make money? They monitor your orders, create a data file about that, and they give it to prime brokerage institutions milliseconds before you buy. If the institutions see a lot of buys, they buy milliseconds before your buy executes. @chamath @theallinpod

Lets talk about this. First, @RobinhoodApp has done something amazing by decreasing the barrier to entry for your every day buyer to now be able to easily invest. This has enabled a revolution. Truly, there is no arguing that.

But on the other hand, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT. By pulling your data and providing it to prime brokerage institutions, @RobinhoodApp makes hundreds of millions, because the brokerage institutions are able to get in first, and pull from the profits. Make the rich richer right?

This is a prime example of why decentralization and #IOTA with it's data capabilities is the future. Why are brokerages making money hand over fist based on our data? We should get a piece of that!

When we enable everyone to have control over their data, then the benefit of a lower barrier to entry starts to even out. Brokerages and companies like @RobinhoodApp should still make money, but us not getting any of it just seems criminal to me.

Dear Media,

What’s happening with RobinHood?

A quick primer.

This is a “plumbing” issue. It is esoteric, even for those on Wall Street.

A very long thread on how the toilet is clogged.🚽🧻🪠

Read on
👇👇👇💎💎💎🚀🚀🚀👇👇👇

First: RH was not the only brokerage to restrict buying in $GME et al. Much of the below applies to many brokerages. I'm going to use "RH" in my writing for simplicity and because it's the most prominent, but it's not fair to call this a RobinHood issue, per se.

The restrictions impacted retail AND institutional players – many institutional prime brokers ("PBs") did the same thing to their hedge fund clients.

Why?

Surely PBs can't be trying to punish their own clients just to benefit Citadel. There must be something else happening...

Let's talk plumbing. 🪠🪠

Most RH clients (& all HFs) use “margin” accounts, not “cash” accounts. RH's sign up process nudges new customers into margin accounts by default.

Whether RH should do that is worthy of discussion another day.

This is a story of lending and capital.

Margin accounts are Wall Street's way of denoting lending accounts.

Practically speaking, in margin accounts, the client does NOT own *any* securities. Rather, margin account holders "own" a promise from their broker.

Yay.

If you're out of the loop - this is the (hilarious) story of a subreddit (wall street bets) taking down a multi-billion dollar hedge fund... get your popcorn ready 🍿

the hero of our story: a user named DeepFuckingValue bought $50k of call options in Gamestop ($GME) that has turned into a $13M+ win in ~3 months.

he's a part of the subreddit r/WallStreetBets, a group of degenerate gamblers that I love.

So here's the situation.

Gamestop (GME) = a dying biz. circling the drain. Who goes to a store to buy games? It's basically a pokemon card dealership at this point. Plus with covid, malls are dead.

So some Hedge Funds are shorting the stock, betting it would go down.

One fund in particular, Melvin Capital Managment - a multi-billion dollar hedge fund...had been accruing a big short position in gamestop. Usually you don't have to disclose your shorts - but these were 'listed put options' so some clever redditors discovered the position

Melvin had a $55M+ short against GME.. If you're not familiar with shorting - read this simple explanation using apes and snakes and bananas from the subreddit.

Teachers, take note:

A more detailed explanation of the whole

"A double-spend broke Bitcoin" FUD that was circulated by an irresponsible publication.

1/

There was a chain re-organization in the Bitcoin blockchain. This is a common occurrence that is part of Bitcoin's normal operation. It is a result of decentralized consensus under Proof-of-Work. All PoW chains do this.

2/

Two blocks were mined almost simultaneously, competing for the same height, meaning that they had the same parent block and were trying to extend the chain of the same block

3/

Only one can ever succeed in the long run. It is possible that different nodes and miners see one or the other block first and assume it is the winner. This is also normal in a decentralized consensus algorithm

4/

Eventually, within an average of 10 minutes another block is mined. This new block has as its parent *one* of the two competing blocks. Which one? Whichever one the miner saw first and assumed to be the winner.

The new block extends the chain, resolving the issue.

5/

My recent article on Ethereum provoked a lot of responses in favor and against, which is good.
https://t.co/WjrJt4VFxL

One of my goals is to identify what is an institutional-grade blockchain, and what is not yet one.

For example, when I bought BTC in April 2020 at $6.9k, this ended up being right ahead of a wall of institutional money that came into BTC throughout the year.

The risk/reward ratio was very strong. Not the highest absolute return (could have bought TSLA yolo calls), but great.

More importantly, I like the BTC project, the ecosystem, what it enables, and the options that it gives to people around the world.

Permissionless payments and self-custody stores of value are important for the world to have.

From there, we'll see what else works in the ecosystem over time if anything. There was an ICO boom/bust, and there is currently a DeFi boom.

Certainly one thing here to stay for a while is stablecoins of various types.

Ethereum itself is in rapid development on the base layer, figuring out how to scale, shifting from PoW to PoS, etc. Institutions are hesitant to put billions into a project like that; a small side bet perhaps.

Hence my 80/20, 90/10, or 100/0 BTC/ETH description in the article.

1/ In Bitcoin is Hope @Breedlove22 writes:

“Entropy is uncertainty, randomness, and disorder; it naturally pours forth from reality, and destroys the works of man over time”

His words reminded me of a vivid example of entropy's destructive power I encountered in Russia.👇

2/ I visited the remote Arctic town of Kirovsk: home to the ruins of an abandoned Stalin-era train station that remains 24 years after its closure.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, declining population made the station uneconomic to maintain.

3/ The structure was abandoned and left to contend with the destructive entropy of the natural environment.

Forces of nature had gradually eroded its concrete carcass and peppered its crevasses with weeds.

Visitors had transformed it with graffiti, iconoclasm, and litter.

4/ The station’s demise demonstrates nature’s power to reclaim capital when the labour required for its preservation is removed.

Formidable resources went into its construction, yet its abandonment shows that it ultimately failed to deliver on its promise.

5/ Structures are abandoned when the cost of their maintenance outweighs their return.

Normally, the high sunk costs of construction make this rare: buildings can usually be profitably repurposed when economic conditions change.

But in Kirovsk’s case the upheaval was too great.

1/ Fear and Bitcoin.

Whenever Bitcoin has a bull run, naysayers try to cope with missing the boat by rationalizing why it will fail through “Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt” or what we Bitcoiners have nicknamed “FUD.”