We've been tracking the macro price reversal since summer using on-chain. Now what clues can it provide us in our effort to identify the macro price peak over the coming months?

First we'll start with behavioral trends and then everyone's favorite, price targets.

[THREAD 1/22]

Over the summer, we tracked the re-accumulation phase, as supply flowed to strong hands, made possible by a slew of new supply-related metrics.

One of the early red flags I'll be looking for is a sharp decline in illiquid supply shock ratio and highly liquid supply shock ratio.

Another new metric created over summer is the LTH supply shock ratio. After reaching new highs (macro supply shock) it appears we are starting to top out in the metric, usual bull market behavior.

But how can we utilize this moving forward?

We can apply trendlines to the LTH supply shock ratio.

Note that we've generally found macro bottoms along the lower trendline of the ratio, and tops around the upper trendline.

Would be looking for expansion towards that upper trendline to start getting cautious.

Can also look at the Supply Delta, created by @caprioleio, which uses 720-day (2 year) moving averages to smooth out and capture signals from the difference between LTH/STH dynamics.