Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9

Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9
So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9
No, many factors, the biggest age, and the likelihood of death in each age band.

🌍serology studies have sampled a similar risk in each 10yr band, with this going up 3 fold with each band.

Here is a plot of what🌍avgs are.

So what else do we need to worry about?

4/9
Factors like:
▶️healthcare: beds nos, better care, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x India, but only effects 15%
▶️lifestyle impacts: carehomes VS elderly@home
etc

But, many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.

What about a lack of treatment?

5/9
Worst case, 🇬🇧 HFR is 15%, with 50% needing O2, so 3x die without hosps.

But, 🇧🇷🇮🇳etc data is hosp data, they don't have near realtime all-cause like 1st🌍.

So🌍the IFRs of deaths per band likely far more similar.

We'll see for NYC vs 🇧🇷 likely, 🇵🇪 not so sure.
🤏of🧂

6/9
So, keeping that in mind, let's est:
▶️Pop. IFR for equal spread (IFRp)
▶️The wgted IFR of deaths, where avail (IFRd)

Range is:
🇮🇹0.9%
🇳🇬0.09%
Just 1/10 the pop. capacity!

FYI, a⏫dIFR/pIFR means they've had relatively⏫older deaths.
e.g. 🇨🇭🇩🇰, caveat most have⏬deaths.

7/9
Further:
▶️% of possible deaths
▶️% of spread

100% susceptibility unlikely. Sure, IgA/Tcell resistance possible, but, regardless:
▶️implied spread varies hugely
▶️NYC's alone suggests 🇬🇧 more spread likely
▶️If 🇵🇪, not healthcare diffs, likely only one near true HIT.

8/9
Finally, here's how each age fared rel. to🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿
▶️Per 2/9 1/5 >80, means 🇧🇷🇵🇪 much⏫per band
▶️NYC worse, likely⏫density & slower LD speed
▶️NYC&🇧🇷 so similar!? Favellas as dense? Same work ethic?
▶️🇺🇦similar to🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿, protected old better
▶️🇪🇺 more LD, bad at CHs
▶️🇰🇷 best

9/9
Summary, all correlated, not causal.

But, all comparisons must remove big factors for diff🥇
e.g. demographics.

Once you do, assumption flaws become evident.
e.g. 🇵🇪 either
▶️worse healthcare outcomes
▶️or, LD was not effective

Reality, spread⏫in 2nd/3rd🌍than deaths imply.

More from World

Watch the entire discussion if you have the time to do so. But if not, please make sure to watch Edhem Eldem summarizing ~150 years of democracy in Turkey in 6 minutes (starting on 57'). And if you can't watch it, fear not; I've transcribed it for you (as public service). Thread:


"Let me start by saying that I am a historian, I see dead people. But more seriously, I am constantly torn between the temptation to see patterns developing over time, and the fear of hasty generalizations and anachronistic comparisons. 1/n

"Nevertheless, the present situation forces me to explore the possible historical dimensions of the problem we're facing today. 2/n

"(...)I intend to go further back in time and widen the angle in order to focus on the confusion I  believe exists between the notions of 'state', 'government', and 'public institutions' in Turkey. 3/n

"In the summer of 1876, that's a historical quote, as Midhat Pasa was trying to draft a constitution, Edhem Pasa wrote to Saffet Pasa, and I quote in Turkish, 'Bize Konstitusyon degil enstitusyon lazim' ('It is not a constitution we need but institutions'). 4/n
I'll bite, Mr. Gray. We can even play by your rather finicky rules.

Let's begin with some of the things you have said about Xinjiang, notably absent from your more recent media appearances, but still present in your blog about your 2014 biking trip.


The following is taken from an ongoing list I keep of people who have been to Xinjiang and written/spoken about their experiences. It is separate from the testimony of detainees and their relatives I also keep. Jerry is on this

Jerry, your article for CGTN, as well as your various Medium pieces, belabor themselves to emphasize the smoothness of your time in Xinjiang. Why did you leave out so many details from your log of your 2014 trip? They seem relevant.

For example, would CGTN not let you speak about Shanshan, the town that evidently disturbed you so much?


Why, pray tell, after noting how kind and hospitable Xinjiang police were to you in 2019 for CGTN—and how you were never told where you could or could not go—would you omit these details?
🧵 ⚡️ #Navalny, in handcuffs, expects his second verdict in one day NOW, about to be ready any minute now. He’s joking about cucumbers he pickles in his cell. I will translate his SECOND last address in one day but here is the previous trial coverage


Extracts from #Navalny last address #2 today: “Putin’s party is akin a swine devouring oil and gas dollars from a trough, & when poked & reminded that $ are for everyone, growls, “What about the WWII? What about veterans?!” The verdict is due any minute now. #FreeNavalny 👇🏼☝🏼

The judge is back and reads the verdict now.

“The politician criticized the participants in the [RT] video in support of the amendments to the Constitution, calling the presenters "corrupt lackeys", "traitors" and "people without conscience."

The judge says Navalny pleaded not guilty and called the persecution politicized.

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