BC VALUATION

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jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa 4 years ago 1793 views

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#DeepakNitrite valuation is most attractive in the space...

growth will be most explosive in the space...

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jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa

#Lauruslabs new website for CDMO
https://t.co/8GsCECr9Wq

and biologicals
https://t.co/pBr3GKEi9G

Both are multiyear themes...

jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa

#SuvenLife – Niche R&D play..very high risk and very high reward…key is right allocation…

Jazz Pharma was quoting around $0.5 in 2009, today its $150 and Mcap of $8.5 Bn on Nasdaq..almost 300x in 11 years. 80% of its total sales ($2.1 Bn) come from single drug Xyrem.

Axovant Lifescience, bought Alzheimer molecule from GSK, repackaged it and done phase-3 trials. Before starting the trials, the valuation was $2 Bn, just before announcing the data, it rose to $3 Bn. One of the leading broker put the target of $12 Bn if the trials succeeded..

but it failed in phase-3 trials. Current Mcap is $120 Mn…

This is R&D for New Chemical Entity (NCE)…very high risk and very high reward…

Brain-related illnesses, also known as CNS diseases, afflict more than 2 billion people worldwide. Diseases of the brain and mind range

from Alzheimer’s, dementia, epilepsy, migraine, multiple sclerosis, neuro infections, Parkinson’s, psychosis, schizophrenia and stroke to brain injuries and various mental disorders. The global market or CNS therapeutics is projected to reach $137.7 billion by 2025.

#SuvenLife has 1 lead molecule SUVN-G3031 in phase-2 trials which is similar to Xyrem but superior features, 3 molecules completed phase-1 trials and starting phase-2 trials and 11 molecules in pre-clinical trials. All are related to CNS which is growing and uncluttered market

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jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa

#Suven – Journey of my first 50 bagger…

I bought #Suven first in Apr 2013 around Rs 20…today after almost 7.5 years, its Rs 1000 (Suven pharma 920 adjusted for bonus + Suven Life 80)..CAGR of almost 68% for 7.5 years. I am fortunate to hold it throughout the journey and

1/n

add on multiple occasions on way up. Like to share my experience in this thread for everyone’s benefit..

First time I bought because I like the management focus on R&D. It had chosen the most difficult therapeutic area in pharma which is CNS and it was investing the cash

2/n

flow it used to earn from CRAMS. It also used to write off all the R&D expenses in the P&L instead of capitalizing it in BS. That gave me lot of comfort about management quality.

I kept on adding as funds keep coming. I remember giving a public presentation on Suven in

3/n

Mumbai at one analyst meet in Nov 2017 when it was trading at Rs 160. There was a huge call option embedded at that time in the form of SUVN-502. That would have been the blockbuster molecule if succeeded with market potential of $10 Bn plus..result was due in Dec 2019,

4/n

I loaded around 250-300 knowing the value of CRAMS business itself is more than 300.

SUVN-502 failed in phase-II trials, stock was down 15% from 300 to 250 in a single day, I added heavily. it was largest allocation in my portfolio because I knew the value of CRAMS business

5/n

jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa

#chemicals surpassed #FMCG in valuations.. valuation range is 60x - 100x now. Chemicals will have much higher growth rate than FMCG for next 10 yrs

jeevan patwa
@jeevanpatwa

#IBullreal results have no significance at this point. Key points to understand –

Debt reduction – Ibulllreal will be debt free at the time of merger with 650 cr coming from Mr Gehlot and 580 crs from land sale to Elan group. Embassy will have 3000 crs debt out of which 1500 cr

will be reduced through QIP and rest 1500 crs will come from collections next year. So merged entity will be zero debt company in FY23

Sales potential – Launched + planned projects have 18000 cr sales potential with 3400 crs of near completed inventory. Pending cost is 3900 cr

and sold receivables is 4224 crs. That means 9900 crs of cashflow to come in next few years from these projects. In addition, it is holding land bank of 3353 acres and 350 acres (42.5 Mn) for commercial development with potential annual rental of 4300 crs.

JV/JDA/DM potential – With solid track record and backing of institutional investors, Embassy can acquire multiple large value projects under JV/JDA/DM model which enhance its RoCE. One such project is Embassy Bayview in Juhu with net surplus of 500 crs (quite big)..

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William Green
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Aswath Damodaran: “We have all these people telling you to buy a quality company. That's really bad advice. If you buy a quality company that everybody else recognizes as a quality company, you're going to pay through the roof. Good companies can be bad investments….”

bikramjit bhawal
@bikramjitbhawal

@riteshmjn The market is always estimating longterm interest rate and inflation through Growth stocks.
Growth stocks are nothing but leverage bets on above two factors.
Be careful always betting on Growth stocks as there is huge embedded MACRO bet coupled with micro.
Stagflation, take care.

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Arjun Badola
@badola_arjun

A thread: How to value? 🏦💰❓

Sharing my learnings from my journey so far.

Initially when I started out I used to ignore what anybody would have to say about their style of valuing a business and I would blindly copy what Benjamin Graham’s book, The Intelligent Investor had to say.

Later came a stage where I realized Benjamin style was not working.

Before we get into the learning, here is the background to it:

If you have been following me for the past 1 year you would have noticed how my valuation method has changed.

I used to struggle a lot with valuation and it would be at the back of my mind the whole day thinking what are these investors doing to value. I tried DCF but that didn’t work for me. (Don’t hate me for that, its my personal choice)

I used to attend Bloomberg Quint’s talk on Zoom, message investors, read books, etc. to figure out: How to value? (The frustration had got to a level that I took break from investing for 3-4 weeks)

Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere

@Dinesh_Sairam @a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Questions that are only answered with time haha.

@a_basumallick @ashwinidamani Just to add - sustainable FCF is a faraway concept for most till (if) they gain scale or innovate/add value. Till then, it's generally always a struggle to manage WC and capacity addition. Wouldn't expect that to change for a while.

Siddhartha Bhaiya
@sidd1307

@SunDudez No it becomes quality 😂😂

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Ummm...

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#WW2 #SWW #History

Deliveries of Firefly to units only commenced in April 1944,
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Here's the strategy that I utilize on nearly 80% of my trades.

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What are Exponential Moving Averages?

EMA's are a type of moving average that places a greater weight on more recent data points.

8EMA = Exponential Moving Averages of the last 8 candle closing prices.

EMA's adjust with respect to chart time frame.

What is VWAP?

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Calculation: (Price x # of shares traded) / total shares traded

EMA's I use

- 8
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While I do utilize the 50EMA, the 8 & 21 EMA are most important for this strategy. Some people use the 9 and 20 which are essentially the same thing. REMEMBER: EMA'S adjust with respect to time frames.

A+ Set Up Criteria - (What I look for)