API Webinar💊 Q&A with @unseenvalue

Sir Promised 30 mins but ended up giving all of us more than 90 minutes 😁🙏

For unparalleled insights on the API industry🎥

https://t.co/x1U430JKFG

What all do I read to keep myself informed about new opportunities and to keep updating myself with the new happenings in the world?

Time for a thread about all tools I use to research,Find information and update myself about different subjects

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Blog Subscriptions I am subscribed to for investing:

1. @borrowed_ideas
2. Non-Gaap Substack
3. The Flywheel substack
4. Read The Generalist
5. Kiran D- has a blog on word press
6. Uncommon Profits
7. Used to read stalwart but they reduced the posting
8. @rohitchauhan

9. @IntelsenseI
10. @SeekingAlpha
11. @themotleyfool
12. Betaoalpha Substack by @mehrotra_saket
13. @MarcellusInvest
14. @PerfectResearch

Others that I like to read

1. @TheKenWeb
2. @EconomicTimes Prime. Recently they have improved
3. @TheEconomist
4. @forbes_india

Sectoral experts/Analysts that I follow:

For Pharma- @AdityaKhemka5 , @unseenvalue & @punitbansal14 + Contract Pharma for cdmo

For Banking- @HemindraHazari , Digant Haria and Ashish Gupta from Credit Suisse (he's terrific)

For chemicals- Rohit Nagraj from Emkay Global

and chemical weekly+Chemical reports monthly from B&K securities

Broker reports that I like to read whenever I can:

1. Spark capital-hands down the best reports in the country.

2. Ambit- publish some good stuff. But rarely available

3. JM Financial- exceptional reports.

Why Reading and observing different trends matter.

Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! 🎵🎵

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“What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.”- Charlie Munger

Charlie Munger who is the partner of Warren Buffett, has over the years explained the importance of creating a latticework of mental models. That is basically combining theory with live practical examples

One of the most interesting mental models he talked about in his books was that of Autocatalysis (lets understand this and how we can apply it to a live example):

"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.

They owned the copyright. And just as Coke could prosper while refrigeration came, When the video cassette was invented, Disney didn’t have to invent anything or do anything except take the thing out of the can and stick it on the cassette.

Laurus Annual Report|Beginning of a multiyear journey?

We have simplified it in such a way that even a 5th grader can understand Pharma terms in simple language

"Other guys read Playboy's. I prefer Annual reports.-By Warren Buffett

Link to the Video🔗: https://t.co/kaqCKKasVI

A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth

I have seen plenty of Buffettology on Twitter and in other places over the past few years. Its time to clear the air and understand that there wasn't one but 3 different Warren Buffett's that existed throughout his career 📚📚

Time for a thread: 3 Different Buffett's 🧵🧵🧵

One of the biggest mistakes that you as an investor can make is to forget the basic and the most important mental model an investor can have: Numeracy. Being fluent with numbers and respecting the context in which Buffett made his returns.

At the beginning of his career, let's call this Warren Buffett 1 i.e. Between 1957-1968. This was the time when he was working with small sums of money. He was extremely valuation conscious and guess what. How many stocks did he buy and sell between this period?

In this period, he bought and sold nearly 400 stocks. He bought Geico and sold it within 18months, he bought Marshals wealth at a PE of 3 times and he bought Commonwealth at a PE of 5times and sold it at a 60% gain. His returns were mind-boggling too during this time period

No Wonder he said, “The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers… I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” Look at the performance once

Only one Indian company is making the country pound in the US when it comes to Biologics #Biocon @Bioconlimited 👏👏

Company floated and nurtured by a women despite all the gender biases. How can the gents be beaten by a lady?

If I have the luxury of not looking at my portfolio for five years and build it today, I will go and buy CDMOs assisting innovators on ::

Animal Healthcare
Biotechnology (including fermentation)
Peptides
Oligonucleotides
High Potency Drugs in Oncology

Keywords :: five years

Context ::

https://t.co/jKwBEs81CB

Listen from around 2:21:00

#CDMO