Why Reading and observing different trends matter.
Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! 🎵🎵
🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵
"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.
A live example is the Music Licensing Businesses like Saregama and TIPS. Both the businesses suffered
https://t.co/ukl1HUYCOI
Multiple Lollapalooza come together to create extremely strong trends.
https://t.co/zdusVUBEIe
1. Growth of streaming business
2. Growth of Youtube viewership in India
3. Increasing internet penetration
4. Usage of retro music and remix in sitcoms, and by OTTs.
5. Insta reels
6. Finally, an optionality of Audio NFT!
Watch our Saregama Video🎵🎵 to know more about how autocatalysis is playing out! (positively biased)
https://t.co/hfe6zfy8lt
More from Intrinsic Compounding
More from Ideas
1/ A orders chips. Supplier says "supply is getting tight." A triples order to store them in a warehouse. Supplier tells other customers supply is even tighter. They order extra chips. Quickly there are more chips in warehouses than toilet paper in garages during the pandemic.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”
Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.
I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."
Fabs and backhoes don't increase with Moore's law. https://t.co/m7ZreQTzow
4/ If you invert Nathan's 1st Law:
Software can't expand faster than the chips and memory that enables its magic.
Broadcom's CEO believes chip production is a mature industry that will return to lower growth. I disagree in the medium term at least.
2/ Intel's Gelsinger: "I don’t expect the chip industry is back to a healthy supply-demand situation until ’23. For a variety of industries, I think it’s still getting worse before it gets better.”
Are chips in warehouses the prime cause of the shortage? No. Demand is higher.
3/ "Software eating the world" means rising demand for chips.
I'm skeptical that this increase in chip demand is "transitory."
Fabs and backhoes don't increase with Moore's law. https://t.co/m7ZreQTzow
4/ If you invert Nathan's 1st Law:
Software can't expand faster than the chips and memory that enables its magic.
Broadcom's CEO believes chip production is a mature industry that will return to lower growth. I disagree in the medium term at least.
22 Powerful Ideas from Startup Founders
Startups succeed when they solve
Choose your customers
Resist the lure of new ideas when the real work begins:
Consider all paths and points of
Startups succeed when they solve
\u201cA genuine intention to solve a problem\u201d is the best startup strategy you can have.
— Al Caan (@caan_al) January 15, 2022
Do not lose sight of the intention behind your service, as you scale up.
Choose your customers
$600 Client \u2014 Complain, complain, complain
— Will Cannon (@iamwillcannon) September 12, 2021
$60,000 Client \u2014 \u201cMoney sent, thanks\u201d
Resist the lure of new ideas when the real work begins:
Beginner\u2019s Dilemma:
— Barrett O'Neill (@barrettjoneill) February 6, 2022
New endeavors are so challenging that other options appear an easier route to success.
If you choose to switch, rather than iterate and optimize, you\u2019ll always be a beginner.
And things will always seem hard.
Consider all paths and points of
90% of new startups fail.
— Chris Munn (@chrisxmunn) February 4, 2022
Consider buying a business instead.
This thread is for investors or those who are interested in CDSL as an investment. Often the central reason quoted for an investment here is the gush of FCF the business produces and some float money also to boot. But this argument ignores a central problem as well. (1/11)
I completely agree that CDSL is a business that produces ample amount of Free Cash. So, it begs the question: "What are they doing with all that cash?" Generally, firms can utilize the cash on their books in 4 ways: Dividends, Acquisitions, Capex/Investments and Buybacks. (2/11)
CDSL does have a Dividend Payout Ratio of ~35-40%. But Dividends are the least efficient way of utilizing cash, due to the Triple Taxation on Dividends. More
Handled well, Inorganic Growth is so lucrative that some companies build their business models around acquisitions (Say, MSSL or Cyient). However, CDSL literally CAN'T be one such company. Read 7 (c) of the below regulatory document to know more:
https://t.co/071lwnnwJ4
(4/11)
CDSL can also reinvest cash into their own business, like most companies do. But CDSL (And most Exchanges) have little need for Capex/Reinvestment. CDSL's IPO came in at Rs. 523.99 Crores. Two years in, the Cash and Investments on their books stands at Rs. 650 Crores. (5/11)
I completely agree that CDSL is a business that produces ample amount of Free Cash. So, it begs the question: "What are they doing with all that cash?" Generally, firms can utilize the cash on their books in 4 ways: Dividends, Acquisitions, Capex/Investments and Buybacks. (2/11)
CDSL does have a Dividend Payout Ratio of ~35-40%. But Dividends are the least efficient way of utilizing cash, due to the Triple Taxation on Dividends. More
Handled well, Inorganic Growth is so lucrative that some companies build their business models around acquisitions (Say, MSSL or Cyient). However, CDSL literally CAN'T be one such company. Read 7 (c) of the below regulatory document to know more:
https://t.co/071lwnnwJ4
(4/11)
CDSL can also reinvest cash into their own business, like most companies do. But CDSL (And most Exchanges) have little need for Capex/Reinvestment. CDSL's IPO came in at Rs. 523.99 Crores. Two years in, the Cash and Investments on their books stands at Rs. 650 Crores. (5/11)