BC IDEAS
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Why Reading and observing different trends matter.

Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! ๐ŸŽต๐ŸŽต

๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต

 โ€œWhat is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you canโ€™t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang โ€˜em back. If the facts donโ€™t hang together on a latticework of theory, you donโ€™t have them in a usable form.โ€- Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger who is the partner of Warren Buffett, has over the years explained the importance of creating a latticework of mental models. That is basically combining theory with live practical examples
One of the most interesting mental models he talked about in his books was that of Autocatalysis (lets understand this and how we can apply it to a live example):

"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.
They owned the copyright. And just as Coke could prosper while refrigeration came, When the video cassette was invented, Disney didnโ€™t have to invent anything or do anything except take the thing out of the can and stick it on the cassette.
And every parent and grandparent wanted his descendants to sit around and watch that stuff at home on videocassette. So Disney got this enormous tail wind from life. And it was billions of dollars worth of tail wind.
Obviously, thatโ€™s a marvelous model if you can find it. You donโ€™t have to inventanything. All you have to do is to sit there while the world carries you forward."

A live example is the Music Licensing Businesses like Saregama and TIPS. Both the businesses suffered
over the years due to rampant piracy. The entire music industry de-grew due to websites like torrents, song-PK and rampant piracy.
However, here is where the idea of autocatalysis comes in. The patterns of distribution changed. Have you observed how youngsters around you are listening to music over streaming applications like Wink Music or Spotify? Growth of streaming applications has acted like
an autocatalysis for Music Library/IP owners like Saregama or Tips. This is just not it, just look at the growth rates of viewership of YouTube :

https://t.co/ukl1HUYCOI
Such are the tailwinds. Just check the number of views on recently released song by Saregama (Badshah). It has already crossed a mind boggling 500 VIEWS!

Multiple Lollapalooza come together to create extremely strong trends.

https://t.co/zdusVUBEIe
Mini trends completing the lollapalooza here:

1. Growth of streaming business
2. Growth of Youtube viewership in India
3. Increasing internet penetration
4. Usage of retro music and remix in sitcoms, and by OTTs.
5. Insta reels
6. Finally, an optionality of Audio NFT!
Read, read and read. Hope to have a few insights :)

Watch our Saregama Video๐ŸŽต๐ŸŽต to know more about how autocatalysis is playing out! (positively biased)

https://t.co/hfe6zfy8lt

More from Intrinsic Compounding

Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
Praj is not just an Ethanol Play. Found this bit to be the best, creating mind map of optionalities requires in-depth understanding and use of knowledge from multiple domains. Hats off @unseenvalue ๐Ÿ™Œ๐Ÿ™Œ
https://t.co/XP4SErAZVo
SUGAR , PRAJ , IDEAS
Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
Commandments of Investing Success!

Some of the key principles of investing that have helped me in my journey.

Retweet for Max reach!

๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต

Commandment 1

Investing is a game of probabilities and not a game of possibilities. First thing that is the most important is to adapt your investing philosophy to your own circumstances. Eg:- if you are able to give less time to research then it is foolish to buy

concentrated positions or companies that are just emerging with a higher allocation.

Commandment 2

This is the one where I have been burnt in the past. Hopefully I have learnt my lesson, always pencil in conservative growth estimates. Let the business beat your low

expectations and then take a victory lap. At the end you are here to compound your capital and not look like a hero.

Commandment 3

Have both concentration and diversification work for you. Make a portfolio of 12-20 stocks. Look for different themes. Concentrate in your top

Positions (10-11 stocks) and the other stocks should be like football players who are warming the bench and willing to play as soon as they get on to the pitch to replace any stock (one) who is injured or cannot continue to play.
ALL
Advertisement
Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
Another Superb Blog by @badola_arjun . This time on Apollo Pipes ๐Ÿ—๏ธ๐Ÿ—๏ธ

This completes our PVC/CPVC pipes industry analysis. Done with Astral,Prince and Apollo ๐Ÿ˜€

Link to read๐Ÿ”—: https://t.co/Ib40q9Fg3g
PVCPIPES
Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
Why Indoco Remedies looks Interesting and why FY22-24 growth is likely to be stellar here?

Time for a thread๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต๐Ÿงต

(Source for ophthalmics data:Nirmal Bang and rest is own work)

Looking at the incremental opportunity in Ophthalmics:-

Market size is not attractive for the Large Generic companies but for someone like Indoco which has a smalll base in exports business


As per the USFDAโ€™s orange book, for Ophthalmic suspension drugs, only 3 out of 17 molecules have an active patent. Among the 14 molecules that are patent expired, 8 molecules are yet to see generic
competition.

Even for the oneโ€™s which have seen generic competition, the competitive intensity is very low and there is space for an additional entrant.. Entrenched players like Novartis, Bausch & Lomb and Abbvie have dominated this market with legacy products for decades.

Indoco Remedies and Sun Pharma are the only Indian generic manufacturers to have successfully won approvals for generic version of Ophthalmic suspensions in the US market. Indoco Remedies has recently launched generic version of Azopt (brinozolamide)
INDOCO
Intrinsic Compounding
Intrinsic Compounding
@soicfinance
A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth
VALUATION

More from Ideas

Sajal Kapoor
Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue
@suru27 The number of pets that we spot while morning and evening walks have noticeably increased over the last few months. These companions are great in emotional support, and a natural therapy for ๐Ÿง 
IDEAS
Pritesh Patel
Pritesh Patel
@Pritesh7994
Danish Company Blue World Technologies produces METHANOL fuel cell range extenders to increase battery electric carโ€™s range, allowing then to reach 1,000 km, which is far beyond the range of an average battery Electric vehicle at current time.
IDEAS
Advertisement
ishmohit
ishmohit
@ishmohit1
The secret to understand competitive dynamics in gold finance is to focus on the player which has approvals from Rbi to set up more than 2000 branches and not the ones which are facing difficulties in expanding. You know who the real challenger to Muthoot will be
IDEAS
Romeen Sheth
Romeen Sheth
@RomeenSheth
The cold hard truth:

Why do companies like Quibi raise billions, while companies like Peloton get nothing?

Because fundraising is a GAME

And the insiders keep the rules to themselves.

Here are 100 tips the insiders donโ€™t want you to see but will help you win the game:

1. You canโ€™t play the game without nailing the basics.

There are 5 core ingredients to a startup pitch.

Most have 2.
Good ones have 4.
The best have all 5.


2. Now that you have a grasp of the basics, itโ€™s time to level up.

Good news - most founders make the same mistakes as each other.

Bad news - these mistakes are really easy to make.

Here's what not to do:


3. Ok so you told me what not to do.

So what should I do?

Read below.


4. Weโ€™re in a really unique fundraising environment right now.

Itโ€™s important to contextualize all these tips in the โ€œhere and nowโ€ of whatโ€™s going on in the landscape.
IDEAS
Ravisutanjani Kumar
Ravisutanjani Kumar
@Ravisutanjani
@Nithin0dha Thanks for sharing this, Iโ€™ve introduced around 12 folks to Zerodha. Thereโ€™s a โ‚น10k bonus lying in my Console so technically they must have paid more than โ‚น1L in fees or brokerages.

What a brilliant product, pass my appreciation to the Team. ๐Ÿ”ฅโค๏ธ๐Ÿ‘
IDEAS

You May Also Like

STEALTH JEFF
STEALTH JEFF
@drawandstrike
So it's now October 10, 2018 and....Rod Rosenstein is STILL not fired.

He's STILL in charge of the Mueller investigation.

He's STILL refusing to hand over the McCabe memos.

He's STILL holding up the declassification of the #SpyGate documents & their release to the public.

I love a good cover story.......

The guy had a face-to-face with El Grande Trumpo himself on Air Force One just 2 days ago. Inside just about the most secure SCIF in the world.

And Trump came out of AF1 and gave ol' Rod a big thumbs up!

And so we're right back to 'that dirty rat Rosenstein!' 2 days later.

At this point it's clear some members of Congress are either in on this and helping the cover story or they haven't got a clue and are out in the cold.

Note the conflicting stories about 'Rosenstein cancelled meeting with Congress on Oct 11!"

First, rumors surfaced of a scheduled meeting on Oct. 11 between Rosenstein & members of Congress, and Rosenstein just cancelled it.
ALL
Peter McCormack [Jan/3\u279e\u20bf \U0001f511\u220e]
Peter McCormack [Jan/3...
@PeterMcCormack
1/ So here is a thread on how I turned $32,000 into $1.2m and back to pretty much zero (once taxes are paid).

Just note, I am not bitter or salty in any way at all, the last 2 years have been an amazing ride - travelled the world, been wealthy, been poor.

2/ Dec '16, my advertising agency folded, I had a little bit of money left and I put $32k into Bitcoin and Ether. As it started to go up I diversified into everything, Monero, Dash, this that, any crap - even Ripplecoin. Everything just kept going up.

3/ By March I think I had around $300k and $500k by the summer. I used to take 25% out but towards the end of the summer I got greedy and put it all back in and by December it was $1.2m.

4/ Thinking I was an absolute genius I decided to start a bunch of businesses. As silly as it sounds I had this goal of making $5m as I wanted to buy Bedford Town Football Club and get them in the league, and as Crypto was going up forever I needed 6 months.

5/ So:
- Trading (income 1)
- Podcast (income 2)
- Mining (income 3)
- Mining pool (income 4)
- Consulting (income 5)

Yes - all of the above as a one-man army :)
LIFE
Advertisement
James Clear
James Clear
@JamesClear
My top 10 tweets of the year

A thread ๐Ÿ‘‡

https://t.co/xj4js6shhy


https://t.co/b81zoW6u1d


https://t.co/1147it02zs


https://t.co/A7XCU5fC2m
BUSINESS , ALL
Angad Singh
Angad Singh
@Singh7575
๐™Ž๐™๐™–๐™ง๐™ž๐™ฃ๐™œ ๐™ข๐™ฎ ๐™ฌ๐™ž๐™จ๐™™๐™ค๐™ข ๐‘พ๐’๐’'๐’• ๐’ƒ๐’† ๐’”๐’–๐’“๐’‘๐’“๐’Š๐’”๐’†๐’… ๐’Š๐’‡ ๐’•๐’๐’Ž๐’๐’“๐’“๐’๐’˜ ๐’– ๐’“๐’†๐’‚๐’… ๐’•๐’‰๐’† ๐’”๐’‚๐’Ž๐’† ๐’”๐’•๐’–๐’‡๐’‡ ๐’Š๐’ 50๐’Œ ๐’˜๐’๐’“๐’Œ๐’”๐’‰๐’๐’‘ ๐’๐’“ ๐’”๐’๐’Ž๐’†๐’๐’๐’† ๐’Ž๐’‚๐’๐’‚๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’๐’ˆ ๐’š๐’๐’–๐’“ ๐’Ž๐’๐’๐’†๐’š ๐’˜๐’Š๐’•๐’‰ ๐’”๐’‚๐’Ž๐’† ๐’๐’๐’ˆ๐’Š๐’„
Simple and effective way 2 make Money


Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1

After closing below S1 if it closes above S1 next day or any day enter the same position again vice versa for R1

Idea2:- Use R1 and S1 corresponding strikes multiple
Incase of R1 15337 take 15300ce
N in case of S1 14221 use 14200pe
Sell both and hold till expiry or exit if nifty closes below S1 or above R1 around closing
If the same bounces above S1 and falls below R1 re-enfer same strikes

Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty

(This is must)Use this margin rule for 1lot banknifty pair keep 4Lax margin
For nifty one lot keep 3Lax
For usdinr 100lots keep 4Lax

I bet you if you do this on consistent basis your ROI will be more than 70% on yearly basis.

Couldn't explain easier than this

Criticisms are most welcomed.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , MONTHLY OPTIONS SELLING , OPTIONS LEARNING
Simon Wardley #EEA
Simon Wardley #EEA
@swardley
X : Our executive team is concerned that we need to up our game in order to out innovate Amazon.
Me : Do you map?
X : Yes
Me : Like this?
X : No. What's that?
Me : A map of a tea shop.


X : Why is that a map?
Me : Long story, all to do with how space has meaning. To keep it short, maps help people to focus on user needs, the components involved, to communicate missing components and scenario play ideas like staff becoming robots.


Me : Theyโ€™re also good for measuring and managing capital flow, making investment decisions, removing bias and getting rid of duplication.
X : I donโ€™t see how that helps with innovation?


Me : Well, innovation is a tricky word because we use it to describe many things. If youโ€™re talking about differentiation with the adjacent unexplored then youโ€™re experimenting in the โ€œunchartedโ€ space e.g. immortality with magic provided by the special custom built kettle.


X : That sounds like nonsense.
Me : A lot of what people think will be the next great innovation is nonsense. Actually, most of it is. Thatโ€™s the nature of the uncharted space, itโ€™s experimental, high risk and generally results in failure.
X : We need more reliable innovation.
TECH