BC IDEAS
Saved by @AnmolNarula11

Why Reading and observing different trends matter.

Time for a thread with a live example that is playing out in front of us! 🎵🎵

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

 “What is elementary, worldly wisdom? Well, the first rule is that you can’t really know anything if you just remember isolated facts and try and bang ‘em back. If the facts don’t hang together on a latticework of theory, you don’t have them in a usable form.”- Charlie Munger
Charlie Munger who is the partner of Warren Buffett, has over the years explained the importance of creating a latticework of mental models. That is basically combining theory with live practical examples
One of the most interesting mental models he talked about in his books was that of Autocatalysis (lets understand this and how we can apply it to a live example):

"Disney is an amazing example of autocatalysis. They had all those movies in the can.
They owned the copyright. And just as Coke could prosper while refrigeration came, When the video cassette was invented, Disney didn’t have to invent anything or do anything except take the thing out of the can and stick it on the cassette.
And every parent and grandparent wanted his descendants to sit around and watch that stuff at home on videocassette. So Disney got this enormous tail wind from life. And it was billions of dollars worth of tail wind.
Obviously, that’s a marvelous model if you can find it. You don’t have to inventanything. All you have to do is to sit there while the world carries you forward."

A live example is the Music Licensing Businesses like Saregama and TIPS. Both the businesses suffered
over the years due to rampant piracy. The entire music industry de-grew due to websites like torrents, song-PK and rampant piracy.
However, here is where the idea of autocatalysis comes in. The patterns of distribution changed. Have you observed how youngsters around you are listening to music over streaming applications like Wink Music or Spotify? Growth of streaming applications has acted like
an autocatalysis for Music Library/IP owners like Saregama or Tips. This is just not it, just look at the growth rates of viewership of YouTube :

https://t.co/ukl1HUYCOI
Such are the tailwinds. Just check the number of views on recently released song by Saregama (Badshah). It has already crossed a mind boggling 500 VIEWS!

Multiple Lollapalooza come together to create extremely strong trends.

https://t.co/zdusVUBEIe
Mini trends completing the lollapalooza here:

1. Growth of streaming business
2. Growth of Youtube viewership in India
3. Increasing internet penetration
4. Usage of retro music and remix in sitcoms, and by OTTs.
5. Insta reels
6. Finally, an optionality of Audio NFT!
Read, read and read. Hope to have a few insights :)

Watch our Saregama Video🎵🎵 to know more about how autocatalysis is playing out! (positively biased)

https://t.co/hfe6zfy8lt

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@soicfinance
The Basics of a Cash Flow Statement explained from scratch 🏧🎰🧮

In this thread we will talk about -

1. How Cash flow statement is made?
2. What is CFO,CFI and CFF?
3. Why is CFO/Ebitda important?
4. Finally, we will talk about Free Cash flow statement

Retweet for max reach!


A Cash flow statement shows inflow and outflow of cash and cash equivalents from various activities of a company during a particular period.

The net cash flow at the end of the year tells us about the movement of cash on the balance sheet.

Why is cash flow important? ⤵️

Companies maintain books of accounts as per accrual principle, that means we book revenue or expense as and when it is incurred.

Let's say we make sales of 10,000 so we will record it as when sale is completed and prepare P&L accordingly, here it doesn't matter whether cash is received or not.

Cash flow helps us in knowing whether that 10,000 has been received in cash or not.

For Example:- There are 2 companies selling T-shirts and doing the following transactions:
CASH FLOWS
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@soicfinance
Free Cash Flow to Firm Bridge for Asian Paints

Source: Marcellus&BQ Quint. Good read!
SCREENERS
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@soicfinance
What all do I read to keep myself informed about new opportunities and to keep updating myself with the new happenings in the world?

Time for a thread about all tools I use to research,Find information and update myself about different subjects

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Blog Subscriptions I am subscribed to for investing:

1. @borrowed_ideas
2. Non-Gaap Substack
3. The Flywheel substack
4. Read The Generalist
5. Kiran D- has a blog on word press
6. Uncommon Profits
7. Used to read stalwart but they reduced the posting
8. @rohitchauhan

9. @IntelsenseI
10. @SeekingAlpha
11. @themotleyfool
12. Betaoalpha Substack by @mehrotra_saket
13. @MarcellusInvest
14. @PerfectResearch

Others that I like to read

1. @TheKenWeb
2. @EconomicTimes Prime. Recently they have improved
3. @TheEconomist
4. @forbes_india

Sectoral experts/Analysts that I follow:

For Pharma- @AdityaKhemka5 , @unseenvalue & @punitbansal14 + Contract Pharma for cdmo

For Banking- @HemindraHazari , Digant Haria and Ashish Gupta from Credit Suisse (he's terrific)

For chemicals- Rohit Nagraj from Emkay Global

and chemical weekly+Chemical reports monthly from B&K securities

Broker reports that I like to read whenever I can:

1. Spark capital-hands down the best reports in the country.

2. Ambit- publish some good stuff. But rarely available

3. JM Financial- exceptional reports.
ALL , SCREENERS , STOCKS
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@soicfinance
A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth
VALUATION
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@soicfinance
Everything about Free cash Flow Simplified!

What we will talk about in this 🧵🧵:

1⃣What is Free Cash Flow
2⃣How to calculate Free Cash Flow
3⃣Types of Free Cash Flow
4⃣Importance & Limitations of Free Cash Flow

Let's dive in ⤵️⤵️


What is Free Cash Flow?

Free cash flow means the cash that is left over after a company pays for its operating expenses and capital expenditures (Capex) like purchasing new machinery, equipment, land & building, etc. and satisfying all its working capital needs.

In simple words, suppose whatever cash that is left with you after you spend your salary or income is known as Free cash flow that you can use for different purposes.

The more FCF a company has, the better it is. Businesses which generate high FCF can:-

1⃣Give investors higher dividends
2⃣Do share buybacks
3⃣Build a war chest for acquisitions or Capex.
4⃣Reinvest in the business when opportunity arises with lesser dependence on debt.

How to calculate Free Cash Flow👇:

To calculate free cash flow, all you need to do is open the Cash Flow Statement and subtract "Net Capital expenditure" from "net cash from operating activities".
ACCOUNTING

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@soicfinance
Tomorrow at 11am on our Youtube channel. Have simplified it to an extent that even a 5th Grader understands the key terms 🙏

Link🎥
https://t.co/AKBBNV6N49
IDEAS
Tushar Bohra
Tushar Bohra
@tusharbohra
@unseenvalue @AdityaKhemka5 I think we may not reach double digit in counting. Not more than 4-5 would be my guess. One of which is a top holding in Aditya's portfolio. :)

The private hospital space in India has long way to go, we are only getting started...
IDEAS
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Scott Domes \U0001f680
Scott Domes 🚀
@scottdomes
How to have better, more creative ideas

A thread of wisdom from:
@TheSchoolOfLife
@david_perell
@anthilemoon
@joulee
@stephsmithio
& more

🧵👇

First, recognize that there are no new ideas.

Innovation is just rearranging existing concepts in a revolutionary way.

To get better at that, learn to combine your unique interests.

I wrote about this

offers a five step process for generating inspiration:

1. Gather raw material.

2. Work over them in your mind.

3. Let your subconscious mind process them.

4. Have a “Eureka" moment.

5. Shape and develop your idea — make it

suggests increasing your creativity by being prolific

Generate as many ideas as you can, as often as you can

Have a daily routine that primes your mind for

looks for a specific combination of traits in order to determine if an idea is worth pursuing

The criteria are:
- interesting
- doesn't exist in that exact form
- something she can uniquely contribute
IDEAS
Pritesh Patel
Pritesh Patel
@Pritesh7994
Danish Company Blue World Technologies produces METHANOL fuel cell range extenders to increase battery electric car’s range, allowing then to reach 1,000 km, which is far beyond the range of an average battery Electric vehicle at current time.
IDEAS
Pritesh Patel
Pritesh Patel
@Pritesh7994
In last 2-3 years we have seen that automobile companies have been in competition in term of car features. Features like digital speedo meter, fully digital instrument cluster, wireless charger, air purifier, digital screen monitor, GPS, IoT, and many other such features. …

…Like kia and Hyundai gives good features in just Rs 17 lakh car as compared with Rs 45 lakh BMW. Kia and Hyundai gives almost all features of BMW in just Rs 17-20 lakh car. So there is huge competition in automobile companies in terms of features, who gives more features in…

…low budget. And in all such digital features ASM TECHNOLOGIES is a leading player. #ASMTechnologies.
IDEAS

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Steve Stewart-Williams
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THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE


2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n


3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)


4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3


5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Thirumalai Murugan Kovil
#Panpoli
#TamilNaduTemples 🚩

Thirumalai Murugan Temple is located in Tenkasi district of Tamil Nadu. Muruga is worshipped as Thirumalai kumarasamy. Temple is situated near Kerala border and known to be where Shri Murugan gave darshan to Rishi Agasthiar


Devi is worshipped in the temple as Thirumalai Kaali amman

Sthala Puranam says that, there was a priest named Poovanbhattar of Thirumalai Kaali amman. Murugar appeared in a dream of the bhattar and said to find a Vigraham, lying in particular place which is of Thirumalaikumaran


Bhattar conveyed the news to the Pandalam Raja and they went to find out the vigraham. Surprisingly ants showed the way to find the Vigraham. Thus Murugan vigraham was found and Prathista was done here. There is a lake with pure water on the top of the hill


which is said to be created by Agasthiyar. It is believed that kannaki of
Chilapathikaram visited here before going to Kerala. Sapthamathrukkal also worshipped Murugan here. Kanthashashti Thiruvizha is very famous here.

Om Muruga
Muruganukku Harohara
🙏🕉🙏
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Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/People I know on the Right tend to be obsessed with the idea of "crimethink", taboos, and the (supposedly) oppressive, omnipresent enforcement of liberal cultural norms.

Why?

My new theory: A lot of it is guilt.

2/It's true that in some circles - the media, universities, many big corporations - liberal norms *are* enforced to some degree, and the enforcement has probably gotten stronger in recent years.

But I don't think this explains all of the Right's obsession.

3/The stereotype is that people on the Right tend to be more threat-sensitive. That would help explain the perception that liberal norm-enforcers are lurking everywhere, ready to pounce and anathematize anyone who makes a misstep.

But I don't think that's all of it either.

4/And of course, it's always fun - whether you're on the Right or the Left, or playing a video game, or whatever - to style yourself as the brave iconoclastic rebel fighting against the oppressive forces of blah blah blah.

But I don't think this is all of it, either.

5/The reason I think it's more than these things is that even *in private*, people on the Right express their "crimethink" ideas very gingerly and hesitantly.

I get the sense that they're not just afraid of external censure, but have also internalized liberal norms.
SOCIETY
STEALTH JEFF
STEALTH JEFF
@drawandstrike
So it's now October 10, 2018 and....Rod Rosenstein is STILL not fired.

He's STILL in charge of the Mueller investigation.

He's STILL refusing to hand over the McCabe memos.

He's STILL holding up the declassification of the #SpyGate documents & their release to the public.

I love a good cover story.......

The guy had a face-to-face with El Grande Trumpo himself on Air Force One just 2 days ago. Inside just about the most secure SCIF in the world.

And Trump came out of AF1 and gave ol' Rod a big thumbs up!

And so we're right back to 'that dirty rat Rosenstein!' 2 days later.

At this point it's clear some members of Congress are either in on this and helping the cover story or they haven't got a clue and are out in the cold.

Note the conflicting stories about 'Rosenstein cancelled meeting with Congress on Oct 11!"

First, rumors surfaced of a scheduled meeting on Oct. 11 between Rosenstein & members of Congress, and Rosenstein just cancelled it.
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Talha
Talha
@dhiblawe1990
Thread: History of Mogadishu and it’s conquest by Imaam Al Yaqubi


One of the First Imaams of the Hiraab Imamate was Mohamed Ibn Imaam Ahmed ibn Imam Ahmed Ibn Imaam Mohamoud Ibn Imaam Cumar Halol Al Yacquubi (Abgaal) during the year 1097 hijri.


After the collapse of the Ajuuran Abgaal nomads from the interior had started moving to take over the strategic port town of Mogadishu which was then under the muzzafar dynasty. By the 1600s Abgaal warriors had captured the city and set up their base in shingaani.


Mogadishu at the time was a large and well known port town. The Abgaal clan taking over control allowed them to obtain political power and world wide recognition.


Under Imaam Yaqubi’s time in power it’s reported that French merchants had arrived at the port in 1701
and stayed for 11 days. They had attempted to take the city but were successfully repulsed.
HISTORY