Conviction | Patience

Asian Paints is the TCS of 'Home Improvement' space

Think in terms of ::

- Sustainability of Leadership over decades
- Sustainability of Consumption Megatrend
- Sustainability of CFO and Governance
- Quality of Balance Sheet

Rather than absolute MCap

Conviction | Patience

TCS of CDMO in the making over the next 15Y \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3

Compounding @ 25% since the IPO.

Syngene | Revisit 2030-2040 https://t.co/PHd8UEod5X
— Sajal Kapoor (@unseenvalue) December 30, 2019

More from Sajal Kapoor

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Still waiting for those ~5 to go bankrupt. Future is unpredictable. We only need a few 100x over 15Y.

Tail-events generate the biggest panic and upside. If you survive the panic w/o jumping off the train, you deserve the 100x in few stocks.

Temperament + Business Analysis = ⤴️

@unseenvalue Hats off Sir. I compared an equal weighted portfolio of your stocks above to the 2 Coffee Can stocks Abbott & Divis and your portfolio has delivered significant upside since then
Key has to be conviction and equal weighting pic.twitter.com/6dJ1LDMSYr
— ML4TradingDoctor (@DrKRIndia) May 16, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

5 webinars/conclaves since May 2020 and over 100 stock ideas shared. Still not enough :)

Twitter should be like that airport shuttle service, the moment you walk out (start following someone) - there should be a chauffeur (new stock idea) ready to drive you to your destination!

[Free CDMO Masterclass #18] https://t.co/208eQbYKEF

[Free Art of Investing] https://t.co/bHvUqnpiTE

[Paid IIC Dec 2020 on SeQuent] https://t.co/3iDO438Et9

[Charity fund raise on Unseen Trends in Biotechnology] https://t.co/eNi1x1qwhH

[Q&A on APIs]

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@harindersnanda @ishmohit1 @soicfinance @punitbansal14 @nison_steve Both should do well. Prefer Zoetis for leadership, best in class margins and management's execution. Elanco should improve with Bayer Animal boosting companion proportion in its overall mix.

#SeQuent will under-perform next 1-2 years due to #ESOP (unless a surprise M&A happens)

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

You offer me 80% cost arbitrage (discount relative to Japan/EU/US) along with low confidence / assurance on Critical Success Factors and I won't give you a single NCE/NBE to discover, develop or manufacture. Capex/opex arbitrage is too low in the disruptive-science-pecking-order! https://t.co/O2l8dK4BUv

@unseenvalue Given high capex/opex cost structures of US/Japan/EU, how will they be able to compete with Indian API companies? https://t.co/OYhC2PUZpL
— Hiren (@hiren_investing) August 11, 2021

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

When we put a high multiple to sales, the most important thing to worry about is - what could disrupt those cash flows. A lower multiple to sales (like a 1x or 2x) justifies Yo-Yo cyclicality and 10x sales implies relatively stable gross margins, cash flow and business economics.

It's amazing \U0001f60a 25% NP

$8b revenue
$2b Profit
$92b MCap

At 11 times revenue, it seems to be cheap compared to\U0001f609
— Avinash (@Aviral_Bharat) February 17, 2022

More from Uvlearnings

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

FCF = Free Cash Flow (Operating Cash after adjusting for working capital - total Capex)

MCap is based on last Friday's closing.

Q :: What stocks?
A :: “Bhaiya Ji Smile ... Kamaal karte ho Pandey jee ...” 😅

Disc: invested in the 3 businesses at single digit MCap/10Y FCF 😉

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

Only one Indian company is making the country pound in the US when it comes to Biologics #Biocon @Bioconlimited 👏👏

Company floated and nurtured by a women despite all the gender biases. How can the gents be beaten by a lady?

Conviction | Patience
@unseenvalue

Paraphrasing @tusharbohra on @IIC_Conference today ::

"If 10 commodity companies are doing capex at the same time, it signals a peak. If 10 companies in Chemicals/API/Pharma are doing capex in different products at the same time - it probably signals the start of a New Era" 🇮🇳🇮🇳

Sajal Kapoor
@unseenvalue

@rwind78 @sahil_vi @AdityaKhemka5 @soicfinance #SeQuent is investing in enhancing the terminal value of the business. This should provide better valuations fresh entry next year. Given the fact that it was 40+ in 2018, even a 400+ by 2028 would mean a very healthy 25-26% CAGR ex dividends.

D: Invested. Add more next year.

Syngene Intl
@SyngeneIntl

Syngene is delighted to share that we are part of Fortune India’s Top 100 Wealth Creators list for 2021.
The criteria involved being a listed company with a 5-year CAGR of 7.5% plus in terms of market cap, revenue &profit (2017-21).
#FortuneIndia #Syngene #FortuneList #CDMO
1/5

Those incurring a net loss in any of the 5 fiscals (2016-20) were filtered out. The final 100 were based on firms having revenues of Rs 300 crores or more in FY20.
2/5

Key to our success has been our growing clientele who regard us more as a strategic partner with flexibility to work across a spectrum of clients -MNCs to start-ups. We also have a consistent client retention rate of 90%.

#strategicpartnership #clientele #USA #Europe #Japan
3/5

On the range of #scientific work being done at Syngene, our CEO, #Jonathan_Hunt is quoted as saying: “The minute you come into our campus, you can travel the world, scientifically – we do that degree of knowledge-intensive work here”.
#Biopharma #CRO #CDMO #CMO #CRDMO
4/5

Our winning formula? Capability to offer integrated services across the #DrugDiscovery, Development, Mfg continuum under one roof; Lean Sigma way of operations; Quality of our work. All this built on the foundation of world-class talent.
#DrugDevelopment #Scientists
5/5

In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.

In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.

This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.

In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.

Erik Torenberg
@eriktorenberg

1/“What would need to be true for you to….X”

Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?

A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody:

Next level tactic when closing a sale, candidate, or investment:

Ask: \u201cWhat needs to be true for you to be all in?\u201d

You'll usually get an explicit answer that you might not get otherwise. It also holds them accountable once the thing they need becomes true.
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) February 27, 2018

2/ First, “X” could be lots of things. Examples: What would need to be true for you to

- “Feel it's in our best interest for me to be CMO"
- “Feel that we’re in a good place as a company”
- “Feel that we’re on the same page”
- “Feel that we both got what we wanted from this deal

3/ Normally, we aren’t that direct. Example from startup/VC land:

Founders leave VC meetings thinking that every VC will invest, but they rarely do.

Worse over, the founders don’t know what they need to do in order to be fundable.

4/ So why should you ask the magic Q?

To get clarity.

You want to know where you stand, and what it takes to get what you want in a way that also gets them what they want.

It also holds them (mentally) accountable once the thing they need becomes true.

5/ Staying in the context of soliciting investors, the question is “what would need to be true for you to want to invest (or partner with us on this journey, etc)?”

Multiple responses to this question are likely to deliver a positive result.