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OK. I may get slaughtered here, but there is a kind of pundit who doesn't know what he doesn't know. I'm not talking about ordinary people on @Twitter who shoot the shit on a variety of topics, but people with millions of followers, readers. 1/

 These are usually men, who will assume expertise because they've always been told they were the smartest in the room, were given a platform because of who they are, and feel no sense of humility when they decide to ramble off and take down others. 2/
Here I am talking about @NateSilver538 @mattyglesias and @DouthatNYT who have decided they are the arbiters of truth in science and public health. 3/
It started with the #ACIP recommendations on the next phase of #COVID19 vaccination (which as far as I know is still pending). All three of them are suggesting that #ACIP doesn't know what it's doing because there are discussions happening about how to manage trade-offs. 3/
All three believe age-based allocation is the only way to triage vaccine delivery and they've been scornful of the deliberation of #ACIP for talking about things like equity, essential workers, etc. 4/
I'll wait and see how the recommendations play out, but let it suffice to say that there are complex trade-offs that have to be considered and the "certainty" of these three gentlemen, their easy derision of the process is sorta gross. 5/
Don't get me wrong. I am all for criticizing scientists. I did it for years as an AIDS activist but what I think differentiates us from them is that we dug deep into the science, had mentorship from some great researchers, took on problems, analyzed them sometimes for years. 6/
We weren't spouting off for this week's column or a series of tweets. And we got things wrong and were ruthless with each other about our failures. 7/
But now @NateSilver538 and @DouthatNYT are going after "public health," suggesting they know the contours of what is scientific and "para-scientific." Go ahead fellas. Tell us what you really feel. 8/
Nate Silver in discussing ACIP over the weekend, decides that all of public health has got it wrong. 9/
I dunno Nate, is that the basic scientists who helped sequence the #SARSCoV2 genome, developed new tests for detecting the disease? 10/
Or the biostatisticians who analyzed the vaccine trial results, the modelers who have been helping hospitals gauge ICU capacity? 11/
It's all public health. I see. Yes. Those who've made sure the water you drink is safe, that you don't get food poisoning from your local restaurant, who've kept us from having other epidemics or battled other ones for, I don't know decades? 12/
Oh but it's not you, it's them the front-line public health workers who are making sloppy decisions out there. You mean, those who've gotten death-threats, who are screamed at from left and right for doing their jobs? 13/
One day we should go all Lysistrata on you. See how well you fare if public health went on strike. We would never do that because even if we get paid terribly, work long hours, get shit thrown at us, we do our jobs, from bench to the field, in research and practice. 14/
Now for @DouthatNYT who decided that once public health leaves the laboratory, it's all political, suspect and worthy of derision as "para-scientific." 15/
Again, dear Ross has no idea what people in public health do, but go ahead just now spray paint fraud, charlatan, all over us. Because that's "para-scientific" is a fancy word for. 16/
Politics. No politics in public health please for @DouthatNYT. No conception that public health in its practice is hemmed in by politics on every side. 17/
From the politics that make us sick--we call them the social determinants of health (I just heard Ross faint) to the policies we have to fight for to keep people healthy, public health is intertwined with politics, as it is a public not private science. 18/
What sends Ross off the deep end is that racial equity is being raised in the vaccine allocation discussions. Once we talk race, then it's politics for Ross, and he gets to weigh in. Ross always gets to weigh in. 19/
So, let's talk epidemiology. There are racial disparities with #COVID19 that have not be articulated with para-science," but a tried and true method called counting the bodies. The risk of death for African-Americans is far greater than that of their white counterparts. 20/
And when young people die? They are often again from African-American, Latino communities. This is what the data shows. So discussing racial equity in health isn't a conversation about affirmative action @Harvard. It's about understanding who gets sick, who dies. 21/
Yes a strong case can be made for age-based triaging of vaccine allocation. It doesn't take a pundit to see that. 22/
But in addition to age, race/ethnicity are a strong factor in predicting death from #COVID19 in the US. It's just the facts. 23/
So if you wanted to frame vaccine allocation around preventing the most deaths, you'd go with age+race/ethnicity. 24/
But some people might say you want to prevent "premature deaths,", which might skew vaccine allocation younger. 25/
You might also make a case for instance, for keeping schools open as a social priority, and that would mean teachers would be categorized as "essential workers," and be moved ahead in line. 26/
If you believe these vaccines actually prevent transmission rather than blunting serious disease alone you might want to cluster-bust and head towards prisons, jails, meatpacking plants and Amazon warehouses. 27/
The main point here? It's complicated. But not complicated for @NateSilver538, @mattyglesias & @DouthatNYT who've got the answers and will take down an entire field, well, a diverse set of fields under the rubric of public health with their arrogance and snark. 28/
Who is #ACIP? "14 of the members have expertise in vaccinology, immunology, pediatrics, internal medicine, nursing, family medicine, virology, public health, infectious diseases, and/or preventive medicine; one member is a consumer representative." 29/
But sure, put @NateSilver538, @DouthatNYT and @mattyglesias in charge. How hard can public health be? 30/
It's hard, getting harder. 31/ https://t.co/fQwzUohiGC

More from Gregg Gonsalves

Gregg Gonsalves
Gregg Gonsalves
@gregggonsalves
One thing I will never understand. In 2020, we let ~340,000 Americans die, sometimes in the thousands per day. And we watched. There were no protests, no daily banner headlines befitting a national tragedy on this scale. It's as if we watched 9/11 in a loop for 300+ days. 1/

It was the non-chalance of all of it, the sangfroid. Yes, of course, there were stories in the media, some great ones, but we were shoving bodies into makeshift morgues in America in 2020, and it all became background noise. 2/

And no one rose up. Punctuated outrage from some. But no one on the streets in any substantial numbers asking for, demanding answers, action. 3/

If it weren't for the #BlackLivesMatter protests you'd think most of America was already dead. 4/

You don't have to ask what would I have done if I was present at one of history's great tragedies where people made choices to let barbarism flourish. We've done it now. 5/
SOCIETY
Gregg Gonsalves
Gregg Gonsalves
@gregggonsalves
I think @SamAdlerBell in his quest to be the contrarian on Fauci gets several things wrong here. 1/


First, the failure last year actually was driven by the White House, the #Trump inner circle. Watch what's happening now, the US' scientific and public health infrastructure is creaking back to life. 2/

I think Sam underestimates the decimation of many of our health agencies over the past four years and the establishment of ideological control over them during the pandemic. 3/

I also am puzzled why Tony gets the blame for not speaking up, etc. Robert Redfield, Brett Giroir, Deb Birx, Jerome Adams, Alex Azar all could have done the same. 4/

Several of these people Bob Redfield, Brett Giroir, Alex Azar were led by craven ambition, Jerome Adams by cowardice, but I do think Deb Birx and Tony tried as institutionalists, insiders to make a difference. 5/
HEALTH
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Gregg Gonsalves
Gregg Gonsalves
@gregggonsalves
Here @playbookplus goes again: ‘HOW MUCH IS BIPARTISANSHIP WORTH?’ I don't know @politico, how many more months would you like the pandemic to drag on for? How many more dead? How many more people, businesses ruined economically? I'm sorry but this is garbage framing in a crisis.

Oh but this is what powerful people are talking about in DC! Might that point itself be examined with more seriousness than taking this BS at face value? Don't you understand, we just reflect back what people are saying? We are mirrors on the world, we offer no commentary.

If "very serious people" are talking about what "nice number" would be $1.3T, 1.2T and not what we need to get out of this mess, might it be worth saying, perhaps, this conversation w/o reference to epidemiologic or economic reality is just a failure of leadership, governance?
ECONOMY
Gregg Gonsalves
Gregg Gonsalves
@gregggonsalves
And this pathetic move by @JDVance1 isn't what is so odious about him. He's just a phony, all ambition, no real interest in public service. He made a big show out of moving back to #Ohio to start a group to work on the #opioid epidemic. 1/


I work on the opioids, on research on the epidemic, its relationship with HIV/HCV, overdose. I work with data from Ohio, so care deeply about what is going on there. I was excited. Until I started digging. There's no there there. 2/

More here. 3/

You can even read their IRS-990-N filing. Sure looks like @JDVance1 tried real hard on combatting the opioid epidemic in his state. Um. Not. 4/

Now he's moved on to venture capital. Money is more interesting than the suffering of the people of #Ohio I guess. 5/
ALL
Gregg Gonsalves
Gregg Gonsalves
@gregggonsalves
I've spent the past year as angry as I've been since the early days of the AIDS epidemic when I had to bury friends in their 20s, 30s because our government didn't care if gay men lived or died from a new virus among us. 1/


Some were put off by my anger, some thought scientists shouldn't be political or if they were tone it down a bit. 2/


I work in public health. I am not a basic scientist or a theoretician. I work in a field that is hemmed in by history and politics on every side. 3/


From the 19th century onwards, we've known that who lives and who dies isn't just a function of biology. The data support this thesis, we call them the social determinants of health. 4/


My friend and colleague Paul Farmer calls out these determinants in more direct terms as pathologies of power, structural violence. 5/
LIFE

More from Twitter

Koshiek Karan
Koshiek Karan
@iamkoshiek
Here are 20 of my best threads from 2020 covering personal finance, entrepreneurship, economics & finance, investment banking ++ useful resources.

Massively grateful to everyone who took time out to read, comment & share these across the year. I really appreciate you.

[Thread]

1. Breaking-in – study notes, free textbooks & past


2. Breaking-in – the job connector


3. Breaking-in – book smart vs. street


4. Personal Finance – MEGA Property
TWITTER
Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions
Barney Panofsky's Best...
@mynamesnotgordy
What I've learnt on the Twitter this year:

1. The State of Hawaii makes Jason Kenney honorary Premier.
2. Rod Phillips and John Tory say Rod nodded off on a TTC streetcar and somehow ended up in St Barts.
3. New Conservative Task Force created to locate their MPs and staff.

4. Michelle Rempel says, because some other Conservative politicians did the wrong thing, now she can't do the wrong thing, because the media will report she did the wrong thing, and that's wrong for the media to do. That's it. That's the funny part.

5. Mike Harris awarded the Order of Ontario, which basically makes the whole thing an attendance award.
6. Doug Ford announces that a large order of McDonald's fries and a box of Philadelphia Cream Cheese will also be awarded the Order of Ontario this year.

7. UCP MLA Tracy Allard says she left the country and flew to Hawaii because her family can't celebrate Christmas properly without eggnog served in genuine coconuts.
8. UCP MLA Jeremy Nixon says he only travelled to Hawaii to personally forward a really funny email joke to Allard

9. After appearing more than an hour late for the press conference he'd called, Jason Kenney says Alberta's vaccination rates are low because Trudeau screwed up and delivered the vaccines early. That's it. That's the funny part.
10. Doug Ford sent Jason Kenney a Thank You card.
TWITTER
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Sunshiny AKA Cassandra
Sunshiny AKA Cassandra
@sunnshiiny
A lot of people are trying to figure out what UCP means by putting this biblical quote out into the twitter verse at Christmas.

Many have piped up with commentary and criticized the mix of religion and politics. A convention long held in Canada.


The quote is often repeated at Christmas. “A child is born...” makes reference to the birth of Jesus. Makes sense.

But what does it mean?

Christians (and other religious observers with their religious texts) have made an art form out of interpreting what passages mean.

To those most radically devout (some might say zealously faithful), hidden divine meanings are gleaned from “correctly” reading the bible.

That’s what Dominionists believe. That god himself wrote the bible. Through inspiration of the actual authors, & only they can interpret.

And thus, the “inerrant“ bible serves as a strict road map to save ones soul.

Many devout Christians view the passage as a prophecy made centuries before the birth of Christ. A promise made by god through one of his prophets. Jews interpret the passage very differently.

The Anglican Priest is (obviously) correct about this being supersessionism, and a form of Anti-Semitism.

Troublesome as it is for a Canadian provincial govt to be tweeting out Anti-Semitic propaganda, that’s not the only meaning this passage has for Dominionist Christians.
TWITTER
Barney Panofsky's Best Intentions
Barney Panofsky's Best...
@mynamesnotgordy
What I learnt on the Twitter this week:

1. Well I know I learnt a lot more on Twitter this week than Trump did.
2. After Covid numbers skyrocket in Ontario for past four months, Doug Ford says the data modelling suggests he might have to stop his cross-province campaigning soon.

3. After the assault on the Capitol this week, the CPC finally pulls camou MAGA hats from online merch shop.
4. With pictures of the CPC's Deputy Leader wearing a camou MAGA hat circulating, Michelle Rempel expresses outrage that Candice Bergen getting more attention than she is.

5. UCP MLA Pat Rehn issues statement after return from Xmas trip to Mexico. Says he is sorry, but also very excellent.
6. Jason Kenney says he knows he's failed Albertans and that's why he moved up to the Sky Palace to help him see things from the everyday people's perspective.

7. Westjet insists Kenney government provide more notice of planned out-of-country travel next time so airline can be sure to have enough planes ready.
8. Blogger Karen Bexte travels to DC for insurrection, asks to speak to Canada's manager after he's asked to take a Covid test.

9. Trump says the crowd he got to attack the Capitol was far larger than any crowd Obama ever got to attack the Capitol. Huge crowd. Tremendous crowd of terrorists.
10. After being shut down on every major social media platform, Trump seen at Radio Shack haggling over a CB radio.
TWITTER
Growth Tactics
Growth Tactics
@GrowthTactics
Twitter is, by far, the fastest way to build a high-quality audience.

Why?

It's quicker to write insightful tweets than it is to produce 10min YouTube videos or 1400-word blog posts.

Here's a thread of actionable tactics from studying the fastest-growing Twitter accounts.

2/ Fast-growing accounts have two things in common:

1. They spend 30+ minutes per day sourcing and refining 1-3 daily tweets. They don't wing what they say, and they typically sit on each idea for a few days.

2. Key: They write tweets that get *retweeted.*

3/ Retweets bring followers.

We polled people to ask why they retweet. They said:

1. "Retweeting is my bookmarking system for ideas."

2. "I retweet when someone's put elegant words to my thoughts."

3. "I want my followers to know I relate to this statement."

4/ So, to get more RTs:

1. Tweet referenceable content that people will refer back to later.

2. Challenge the status quo with elegance and wit.

3. Pick a debate and argue your side with a novel take.

The most RTed tweets? *Threads with advice like this.*

5/ How to write a tweet:

• Open with a hook: Make it counterintuitive or counter-narrative.
• Concise body: Satisfy the craving your hook created.
• End with a punchy zinger: Summarize implications of your finding and what it means for the reader.
TWITTER , ALL

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s. e. smith
s. e. smith
@sesmith
Oh are we talking about Sheryl Sandberg again? Well, your reminder that disabled feminists, LGBQT feminists, and feminists of color criticised her ‘lean in’ deal from day one. Don’t let anyone retcon that out of existence.

Like, a pretty narrow slice of feminists actually endorse and support corporate feminism, they’re just white, nondisabled, straight, cis, and noisy so their voices have a bigger reach.

So if your impression is that ‘feminism’ gave her a ‘free pass’ maybe you should question your overall impression of feminism rather than continuing to centre a handful of people as ‘thought leaders’ or whatever.

Critics within feminism have been doing this work for a long time and have been getting shat on it for about as long and I'm tired of seeing them erased. But what do I know — I am, after all, not a feminist.

But I WILL say, from my not-a-feminist perspective, that people who aren’t feminists who are criticising feminism should maybe understand the movement more deeply beyond a handful of high profile celebrity feminists.
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Sam Dylan Finch \U0001f937\U0001f3fb\u200d\u2642\ufe0f
Sam Dylan Finch 🤷🏻‍♂️...
@samdylanfinch
I had the most bizarre experience outside of a bar yesterday, which my partner very aptly described as "toxic mask-unlinity." (A Thread.)

I was standing outside, waiting for a lyft to get home, when two cis men came out of the bar to smoke cigarettes. They're discussing the masks that folks are wearing in California at the moment because of the very dangerous air pollution from the fires happening.

I happen to be wearing one of those masks, because I think lungs are important and I like breathing. I dunno. One of the men notices me standing there, and says, "Like this f*cker right here. What is this shit?"

He goes on a homophobic rant about me, the pansy with a mask, and what a Very Manly Man he is because he's not afraid to smoke a pack of cigarettes while California is on fire. He doesn't need a mask, because something-something-heterosexual-something.

And part of me is just... impressed by the fact that this dude thinks he's Owning The Gay Libs by not wearing a mask to protect his lungs from smoke and particles in the air that are literally DANGEROUS... while chain-smoking. Outside of a bar.
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Marc K\xf6hlbrugge
Marc Köhlbrugge
@marckohlbrugge
💬 I often get Q’s like these:

How did you get your first customers for WIP? How did you grow BetaList’s traffic? Etc.

Makers are looking to reverse-engineer success. I see it everywhere.

I don’t think it works that way and the answers to those questions are mostly useless. 💥

I have built dozens of different products over the last couple of years. The vast majority failed. 😭

Surely if I know the answers to these questions, but still fail over and over again, these answers aren’t that useful. 🤷‍♀️

So what’s a better question to ask? 🤔

99.9% of the questions I receive are about the products that did well. In a way that makes sense, because we quickly forget about those that didn’t succeed.

🧠 This is known as survivorship bias.

Focusing on what survived, while ignoring what made it survive in the first place.

The real question, what you really want to know, is this:

What makes @WIP, @BetaList, and to some extent @AllStartupJobs succeed where my countless other attempts failed?

What separates a failed product 👎 from a successful product 👍?

Honestly, I don’t know. I wish I did.

It’s like Steve Jobs said “I’ll know it when I see it.” 👀

Same is true when we make products. We don’t know upfront what will work. But once we see an inkling of a product that does have potential, it’s not that hard to spot.
STARTUPS
Techno Funda Investing
Techno Funda Investing
@TechnoFunda6
Thread 🧵explaining #ROE & #ROCE and its use in #FundamentalAnalysis

(Must read for #FA learners)

🙏Like & RT to spread learning with all 🙏

Views Welcome 👉 @dmuthuk @Vivek_Investor @datta_arvind @caniravkaria @FI_InvestIndia @AdityaD_Shah

#FundamentalAnalysis #StockMarket


1⃣

Return on Equity (#ROE) and Return on Capital Employed (#ROCE) are two important Financial Ratios used in #FundamentalAnalysis of Stocks.

#StockMarket #Investing

2⃣

Return on Equity (ROE) is the ratio of Net Income (Net Profit) of a company and it’s Total Equity (Shareholder's Equity).

Here - Shareholders Equity = Share Capital + Reserves & Surplus.

#StockMarket #Investing #FundamentalAnalysis


3⃣

#ROE is a measure of how much net profit a company is making for every rupee invested by its shareholders in the company.

It can be said that higher the ROE, better it is for the equity shareholders. It tells shareholders about how effectively their money is being used.

4⃣

However, you should not trust high ROE blindly. Biggest drawbacks or weaknesses of ROE is that it completely ignores debt.

Hence for companies having high levels of debt, ROE will give a higher but misleading value & therefore we need to look at #ROCE along with #ROE.
ACCOUNTING , FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS , ROE VS ROCE ANALYSIS
Mitesh Patel
Mitesh Patel
@Mitesh_Engr
How to sell option?
Here let me explain through simple math.
Say BN at 30000
30000 straddle trading at combine premium 800 ( based on current volatility)
Put at 400
Call at 400
You don’t know direction. Sold both.

If move will not come than both will decrease gradually.

At day end it will come down to 720-740 if move will not come. Difference is your profit.

Now case 2:
Move started.
At one points combine premium will start increasing.
Say 810.
Exit immediately. No need to do adjustment.
Let market settle.

Sell again straddle once market settle.
Now repeat same thing.

Straddle selling webinar over.
Good luck.

One can keep SL 550 for both strike to escape from sudden movement.
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