1/Today's @bopinion post is about Trump's taxes, and what they show about how America allocates capital.

We appear to have some big problems.

Today's @bopinion post is about Nigeria. I expect its conclusions will not come as a surprise to most Nigerians, but it's good for Americans to be thinking about Nigeria and its problems.

Nigeria is very dependent on oil, for its government revenues and for its foreign exchange earnings.

When oil prices fall, Nigeria's people suffer.

And like many oil-rich countries, the government tries to cushion the blow by subsidizing fuel (this is more expensive than you might think, since Nigeria can't refine all of its own oil).

When oil prices rise again, this puts a strain on govt. budgets.

Meanwhile, fewer and fewer Nigerians have jobs, which could portend a rise in social instability.

To escape the doom spiral of the Resource Curse, Nigeria should look to a country that seems to have beaten the curse:

Remember: Just because an idea is old doesn't mean it's good.

Knowing whether old ideas are more likely to be good requires understanding whether conditions have changed in important ways.

Horse archery was an amazing method of warfare for over a thousand years...then people invented guns, and suddenly this great idea that had stood the test of time became obsolete.

Then again, when underlying conditions don't change much, tried-and-true approaches are probably better.

"Learning the lessons of history" usually just means assuming ergodicity and stationarity in an informal time-series model...

(end)

1/Today in @bopinion, I discuss why America has been producing too many PhDs in recent years, and what we need to do to solve the

2/First of all, many people don't realize just how many PhDs we produce! More than almost any other rich country.

3/And we've kept ramping this number up and up.

4/But the problem begins when PhDs start looking for (usually academic) jobs.

5/The U.S. built a ton of universities and then we stopped.

Professors have tenure.

That means there are just going to be fewer new tenure-track jobs than before. Everyone in academia already knows this well.

Treasury, Commerce departments hacked. Pentagon, NASA is also compromised. This is an ongoing investigation, and will be updating. DHS once again asleep at the wheel. @realDonaldTrump needs to purge the department heads they are worthless.

A THREAD ENTITLED: HE KNEW.

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Remember this?

Among the dozens arrested were eleven senior princes, several current or former ministers, the owners of three major television stations, the head of the most important military branch, and one of the wealthiest men in the

2022 is shaping up to be a bloodbath. The Trump census cooked the numbers to advantage Republicans, and GOP statehouses are poised to redistrict in ways that will hand potentially permanent minority rule to the GOP in Congress.

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There's a potential way out: #HR1, an omnibus bill of electoral reforms that would create durable, structural protections for voting rights and a level playing field for campaigning.

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To get a sense of how urgent the looming crisis is - and of how important HR1 is - listen to @ryangrim interviewing @schwarz and Rep @JohnSarbanes [D-MD] on this week's

In theory, HR1 could be blasted through - Dems control the Senate, Congress, and the White House, and the future of the party depends on it, but I'm far from confident that they'll find the discipline and political will to make it happen.

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The Democrats keep squandering their majorities and wasting opportunities to make real change - changes that are must-haves, not nice-to-haves; changes needed to head off existential threats to the nation itself.

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1. Yes, as @danielsgoldman is talking about now on @MSNBC is playing a big part. Rep Senator reluctance to go after Trump is MUCH MORE now than mere political reluctance. And frankly Trump made these threats openly known. Yet, he had his "lists" for primaries. But there is much

2. more going on here, that I'll touch on in the article which will also include the survey results ( there is STILL TIME to get involved w the survey. It is on extremism in the GOP- focused on MTW, GA-14 but also GOP extremism broadly. Ultimately, I waited to field it until

3. after the impeachment trial bc the survey wasn't really meant to test that (trust me, the big org will cover it!) and bc I was afraid it would impact what we are trying to measure. So now its time to get this puppy in the field. UNLESS, y'all care to asses some of this stuff

4. Impeachment may or may not impact attitudes on MTG and tribalism. Lord knows it had so many elements of extremism that times in. In order to add anything I'd gave to raise more money. 10K is not enough- survey research, the kids you see in wapo and nyt and such are like 30K

5. Some quotes I get are even for 50k!!! For 10K, with me doing analysis, we'd get to ask 5 or 6 questions and the most critical demos. (If you are reading this and willing to add your won pro-bono work to mine PLEASE DM me. This isn't some silly horse race poll. The goal is to