A generation of consumers became more risk averse, business investment & productivity slumped, and a large cohort of workers witnessed real declines in nominal incomes. 2/
This chart is the clearest representation of the immense damage that emanated from the GFC on the US economy.
In the ~60 years following WWII, US real GDP seemed to grow at ~3% trend like clockwork.
2008 marked the end of this trend, with growth downshifting to ~2% since. 1/

A generation of consumers became more risk averse, business investment & productivity slumped, and a large cohort of workers witnessed real declines in nominal incomes. 2/
The Fed's own estimate of R* now sits at 2.5%, down nearly 200 bps from its estimate in 2012. 3/

I don't think this is as far fetched as conventional wisdom makes it out to be. 4/
Think of the difference between someone who lived through the great depression versus someone who survived WWII. The latter was far more risk seeking than the former. 5/
When in history have we witnessed a ~10% decline in nominal GDP and a coincident 12% INCREASE in nominal income in the same quarter?! Never... 6/

At the beginning of 2020, household debt as a percentage of disposable income was at its lowest levels in ~20 years. 7/

This sounds trite, but the pandemic is a reminder that life is short. There is little point in waiting to start a business. And with HH B/S's healthy, there is no time like the present. 8/
US business applications have surged this year following years of stagnant growth. 9/

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𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆-𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
🧵 A Thread 🧵
𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
🔸 Less Volatility
🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]
🔸 Indicator Link
🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !
🔸 https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]
Complete Backtest and Indicator link
🧵 A Thread 🧵
𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only
[2/18]
Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
🔸 Less Volatility
🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
[3/18]

🔸 Indicator Link
🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !
🔸 https://t.co/zVXavqLBto
[4/18]
𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 :
🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
[5/18]

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The entire discussion around Facebook’s disclosures of what happened in 2016 is very frustrating. No exec stopped any investigations, but there were a lot of heated discussions about what to publish and when.
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.
The story doesn\u2019t say you were told not to... it says you did so without approval and they tried to obfuscate what you found. Is that true?
— Sarah Frier (@sarahfrier) November 15, 2018
In the spring and summer of 2016, as reported by the Times, activity we traced to GRU was reported to the FBI. This was the standard model of interaction companies used for nation-state attacks against likely US targeted.
In the Spring of 2017, after a deep dive into the Fake News phenomena, the security team wanted to publish an update that covered what we had learned. At this point, we didn’t have any advertising content or the big IRA cluster, but we did know about the GRU model.
This report when through dozens of edits as different equities were represented. I did not have any meetings with Sheryl on the paper, but I can’t speak to whether she was in the loop with my higher-ups.
In the end, the difficult question of attribution was settled by us pointing to the DNI report instead of saying Russia or GRU directly. In my pre-briefs with members of Congress, I made it clear that we believed this action was GRU.