BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1/ Equity crowdfunding or equity investment marketplaces failed. Full stop. Didn’t work.

Here is my synopsis on why the industry hasn’t taken off. Lots of reflection and painful lessons I hope others can learn from.

 2/ Reason #1: The financial feedback loop for vc takes yrs. If you want one core reason the industry has not succeeded, it is this. Time between when an investor writes a check and gets confidence she should write again- is way too long to encourage repeat investment
3/ If you are ever at a YC event and some entrepreneur pitches you on a marketplace that helps private companies raise money…..ask how they will solve this issue.

[imagine being at a cocktail event again?]
4/ I missed this point when we started. Frankly the 60+ investors that passed on us also missed it- or at least it never came up as a key concern. Not once.

The difference between credit, with financial feedback loops that took days or months, and equity is huge.
5/ In private investments it is typically >5 yrs before you see the financial feedback. Win or lose thats a long time for most people. If you’re running a VC fund you’re making $ along the way with management fees, but angel investors….are just shelling out checks.
6/ That’s the key problem. How many checks will you write through an online investment marketplace before you see a return? That is the financial feedback loop- or lack thereof.
7/ We tried non-financial feedback loops. Information feedback loops (“look the co. is growing revenue- that’s great”) and product feedback loops (“look here is the new product from the company”). Nothing was powerful enough to matter when the financial feedback loop took years.
8/ Long feedback loops, along with many other things on this list, made generating non-institutional repeat investor demand on the marketplace extremely difficult.
9/ Reason #2: The Psychic Feedback Loop isn’t close to strong enough. So many people would say “if Kickstarter could help a watch brand raise millions of $, surely an equity marketplace would be even more successful because you’re getting equity.”

No.
https://t.co/sOaWIadAZb
10/ @kickstarter delivered physical products when someone would give tens or hundreds of $. That’s a dramatically different value prop to asking someone to *invest* tens of thousands of dollars (or millions) in exchange for equity. It is like comparing Apples and Beef Jerky.
11/ Reason #3: Misaligned incentives. Too many equity marketplaces were set up as “Heads we win, tails you lose.” Some sites allowed people to form deal-level SPVs, charge mgmt fee and/or carry on deal by deal, without transparency on their track record.
https://t.co/Ef4ZgAyPKr
12/ To quote a former #1 syndicate lead, who no longer runs these SPVs: “dont invest into my [SPVs], I put my worst deals there.”
13/ The sites themselves also had misaligned incentives. They knew they got valued off of volume (GMV). They often received revenue off of that GMV. Some didn't see incentives to ensure strong investor performance over the long-term.
14/ To be explicit- that means that some marketplaces put bad deals on the platform and didn’t care because they wouldn’t have to answer for those bad deals.
15/ Reason #4: Lack of transparency. How did the deals on the site perform last year? How did the deals for a given SPV lead perform? Can we get direct access to the CEO, to their financials? How is the platform getting compensated?

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So..had a great conversation last night with older investment types, old friends whom I traded with/against and managed money against or for. Age diff from me is > 10+ years so the takes were interesting but the common theme was a little disturbing (depends on your view)

Was looking at the landscape of the world & quite concerned where we are (I do not share your optimism for a shinny happy future). I am a Bond guy + Cycles & my view approach is ALWAYS what is the worst that can happen (that is how I was taught to trade & manage money) As a Bond

Money manager you never every want to apologize for a negative year, most people don't understand bonds can lose lots and lots and lots of money. So my view on life is always negative & fuck you approach.

The others are similar but have more equity exposure and FX, one other is really good via commodities so the conversation was from a top down look with some bottom up approaches. So.....after looking at the notes of the great conversation this is how it looked:

basically the world changed 2007/2008 especially North America. The GFC set in motion financial engineering games and here we are. The issues pre this (2000 to 2007) set ALL this up so lots of blame to go around but to pin point certain things the real problems started with QE &
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@10kdiver
1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand Geometric Expectations.


2/

Imagine we have an investment opportunity.

If the investment goes well, we get to double our money.

But if it goes badly, we'll end up losing three fourths of it.

There's a 50/50 chance of either outcome.

The question: is this a good bet or not?

3/

A simple way to approach this question is to calculate the bet's "expectation".

For every $1 we bet, there are 2 possibilities:

1. The lucky case, where we double our money and end up with $2, and

2. The unlucky case, where we lose (3/4)'th to end up with just $0.25.

4/

Each of these outcomes is equally likely.

So, on *average*, every $1 we put in turns into ($2 + $0.25)/2 = $1.125.

This is a *positive* 12.5% return.

Such bets are called *positive expectation* bets. On average, we expect to *make* (rather than *lose*) money on them.

5/

Suppose we could take many turns betting at these odds.

In any one turn, we could of course lose money.

But because our bet has positive expectation, *over time* we expect to make money.
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@Abhishekkar_
𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐎𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬
The entire thread will have some quick pointers on options trading. These bullet points are based on experience and learning and even if you are completely new,will help you to build some perspective. So,lets go :

-When new,prefer trading monthly options over weekly options to reduce risk
-Set up your trades with greater than 50% Probability Of Profit
- Use implied volatility in your decision making process
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-Don’t adjust losing defined risk strategies. A lot of people get into the bad habit of averaging and run the risk of losing a lot
-Diversify your portfolio across product, direction, and time,this has to be considered while you are planning to put in multiple strikes in folio

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-Trade small, trade often to increase your number of occurrences. Some might deny but this works
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@GordunGekko
A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %


gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%
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Varsity
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@ZerodhaVarsity
A 🧵on the basics of block and bulk deals.

Block and bulk deals are large purchases of stocks by investment banks, mutual funds, hedge funds, pension funds, FIIs, and promoters. Tracking block and bulk deals can help give you a sense of what these large players are thinking.

A single transaction where shares more than Rs 10 crores or the number of shares traded are more than 5 lakh is considered a block deal.

Block deals are carried out in separate trading windows. This trading window operates in two shifts of 15 minutes each:

Morning trading window from 8:45 AM to 9:00 AM.
Afternoon trading window from 2:05 PM to 2:20 PM

Block deals happen in different windows to reduce volatility and sudden price movements. Given that they are traded in a separate window, they do not show up on the volume charts.

Brokers facilitating the transaction are required to inform the exchange. You can track bulk and block deals on NSE & BSE:
https://t.co/pwTyzWTnUL

https://t.co/g9BbHiEag3
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