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Thread: Parabolic SAR Indicator

Parabolic SAR (PSAR) indicator was developed by J. Welles Wilder.

#PSAR #Indicators #Definedge

 The calculation of this indicator is a bit complex, but the concept is extremely useful. I will try to simplify it and explain the logic. I will briefly explain the concept, calculation and reading.

Let us think about creating an indicator that shows the trend.
Using the indicator, we can identify & ride the trend using the trailing stop-loss method.

For trailing the stop in uptrend, indicator needs to be placed below the candle. Similarly, it should be placed above the candle for trailing in a downtrend. We will plot it using ‘dots’.
So, the indicator & stop-loss will be rising in uptrend & falling in downtrend.

Let us define the trend as:

If Low of the candle > Stop-loss level in bull market = Trend remains bullish.

If High of the candle < Stop-loss level in bear market = Trend is bearish
Imagine you are driving a car on highway; you would like to accelerate if the road is clear. You will slow down if the road is bumpy.
Same concept is applied here.

The indicator rises steadily if the trend is steady. If the trend is strong the indicator should accelerate, it should move faster and stop should get trailed aggressively.

What is strong trend?
Strong?
In a bullish trend if price makes a new high it is a strong bullish trend.
In a bearish trend, if price makes a new low it is a strong bearish trend.

Period?
Period for new high: since the indicator turned bullish
Period for new low: since the indicator turned bearish
Hope concept is clear.

Calculation of PSAR: EP, AF and PSAR

Extreme Price (EP) is calculated on every candle.

‘High’ price in bullish market and ‘Low’ price in bearish market is called as Extreme Price (EP).
If Bullish trend:

If new high is made -> EP = New High price
Else
EP = Prev High

If Bearish trend

If new low is made -> EP = New Low price
Else
EP = Prev Low

Period of new high or low is explained earlier.
Wilder created a method of calculating Acceleration Factor (AF) for the indicator:

> Accelerate it by 0.02 if trend is steady.
> Add 0.02 to previous speed if trend is strong.
> Maximum acceleration will be 0.20.
A = Different between extreme price and PSAR indicator price

Multiply Acceleration factor by A and add it to the previous stop-loss, you get new PSAR indicator reading.

PSAR = A x AF + Previous PSAR reading
Have a look at below image. Pink dots show PSAR indicator.

Phase A is when indicator moving at a steady speed. Phase B is when trend is strong (New high in bull market, new low in bear market) hence, PSAR is accelerating with a greater speed (0.02 being added) during B.
So, the basic reading of the indicator is:

Trend is bullish when price is above the PSAR, it is bearish when price is below PSAR. You can use it as a trend filtration method.

Indicator accelerates during strong trends. Hence, rising PSAR and Falling PSAR are also important.
The indicator is also used as a Stop & Reverse (SAR) trading system.

When trend changes, the length of the stop-loss depends on the previous high or low. Avoid the signal if initial stop-loss is not affordable. Wait for the pullback pattern that provides better risk-reward trade
I wouldn’t say PSAR is a good sup-res indicator because it’s a mathematical calc. But it offers pullback trade opportunity with better risk-reward when price comes near the indicator during strong trends.

It can be used alone or combined with other studies to design the system.
We discussed about AMA and Super trend indicator which uses similar concept. They go flat when trend is not strong. PSAR increases steadily if trend is not strong and moves fast when it is strong.

Below are some Important things about PSAR indictor:
Imp features:
• Unlike many other indicators, you do not have to define the look-back period, define the acceleration factor
• It does not use method of averaging
• It uses high, low prices to determine the trend and stop-loss level
• Indicator accelerates if trend is strong
Indicator is useful & applicable on different timeframes. 0.02 and 0.20 are recommended settings to being with. I like to explore it on Noiseless charts, objective price patterns are advantage there. Change max AF to 0.10 if you want to use it in Renko. I will talk more about it.
Is it a ‘leading’ or ‘best’ indicator? Its different & useful. ‘Leading’ comes at a cost, ‘Lagging’ can b useful as well. Major issue wid learning in d field of trading is that everything is associated wid trading it immediately. Focusing on concept would bring long-term success!

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Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Central Pivot Range (CPR)

CPR is another popular tool. Three lines are plotted on the chart when we plot CPR.

The three lines are: CPR, TC and BC.

Let’s understand the calculation.


You may recall that I explained the calculation of Pivot levels in an earlier thread. CPR stands for Central Pivot Range. It is always a center line of the three lines that gets plotted in the chart.

CPR is a Pivot price. Pivot is average of HLC as explained in the prev thread.


We also discussed about Mid-range of the session. Mid-range is average of High and low price of the session.

The mid-range of the bar is known as BC in the CPR calculation. BC stands for Bottom central pivot.


Pivot level captures the relationship of the closing price to the range of the session.

Pivot price above mid-price = bullish pivot
Pivot price below mid-price = bearish pivot


So, CPR line is Pivot and BC line is Mid-range.

What is the difference between both?
Mid-range is average of High and Low.

Pivot is average of High, Low and Close.
What will make the difference between the two?

Close.
FINANCE , LEARNING
Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Nifty and RSI divergence. It is all about knowing your indicator well. Quick video (Hindi) :-)
STOCKLEARNINGS
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Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Alligator indicator

#Alligator #Indicators #Definedge


Alligator indicator is created by Bill Williams. He was a popular trader and author.

Before we discuss the indicator, let us understand an important concept.

Here is a chart showing 10 day moving average at bar A. Price of the stock is 100, Moving average price is 90.


What if we shift this moving average to 5 bars further? See the chart below.

Moving average at bar B is moving average price of bar A (5 candles behind). This is shifting of moving average price. What does it mean?


Simple explanation is – shifting the moving average can help one compare current price with past period moving average easily. It results in smoothening instead of increasing the moving average parameter. This is also known as Forward Displaced moving average.
STOCKSLEARNINGS , ALL , MARKETLEARNINGS
Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Decoding 2-period RSI

#trading


2-period RSI is a popular concept introduced by Larry Connors.

Many traders are using this method in their strategy.

There are two simple rules in the strategy that Larry Connors explained.

For buying:
• Price should be above 200-DMA (Long-term trend is up)
• 2-period RSI should be below 10 (better below 5)

For selling:
• Price should be below 200-DMA (Long-term trend is up)
• 2-period RSI should be above 90 (better above 95)

He also recommended exiting trades in profit. Exit if stock goes above 5 DMA after buying and exit of stock goes below 5 DMA after shorting. You can use DMA, higher period RSI such as 5 period or 14 period, ADX, Super trend etc. Possibilities are endless.

Bottom line is that he recommended exiting into profit instead of trailing. He did not recommend stop-loss because it can hurt the overall profitability according to him.

Let’s focus on the 2 rules stated above.

What is the logic of the system? It is a pullback trading system.
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Prashant Shah
Prashant Shah
@Prashantshah267
Thread: Darvas Box Theory

#Darvas #knowledgesharing #Definedge


Nicolas Darvas (1920 – 1977) was a professional dancer and he travelled around the world. He founded a Dance company in 1950s. Someone offered him shares against his Dance programme and that is how he came across stock market and the business of trading.

He reportedly turned thousand dollars into millions in the late 1950s.

He wrote a popular book during 1960 “How I made $2000000 in Stock Market” in which he explained his Box theory. It is a must read.

He used a combination fundamental and technical approach for investing.

He believed in investing in only growth stocks. I think he did not explain a few things in his book, and I found some difference in interpretation of box-theory at various places because of that. This post is my interpretation of his theory.

Darvas was tracking stocks only making new high. I do not think he really talked about 52-week high. He mentioned about stocks breaking 2-3 year high. But 52-week high is mostly tracked for this theory so let us keep it that way to begin with for the sake of objectivity.
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THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played
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JayneshKasliwal
JayneshKasliwal
@JayneshKasliwal
𝗡𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆-𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗻𝗶𝗳𝘁𝘆 𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆

Complete Backtest and Indicator link

🧵 A Thread 🧵

𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗽:
🔸 Monthly Option Buying
🔸 50 ema on 3 min timeframe
🔸 Supertrend 10 , 3
🔸 Chart : Banknifty , Nifty Futures as we backtested on futures
🔸 Entry 9:20 to 3:00
🔸 Max 3 Entries per day
🔸 Premium nearest to 200 Rs only

[2/18]

Why Monthly Option buying ?
🔸 Less theta decay compared to weekly options
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🔸 Supertrend and MA Settings
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🔸 Click on the below 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘬 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘵𝘰 𝘍𝘢𝘷𝘰𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘴 -> 𝘈𝘥𝘥 𝘰𝘯 𝘊𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘵 from favourites and start using it !

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🔸 Max 6 Trades per day ( Both CE and PE buy)
🔸 Timings 9:20 am to 3:00 pm
🔸 Supertrend : 10,3
🔸 Moving Average 50 ema
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ALL , TRADING , A OPTION BUYING INDICATOR
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Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗢𝗣𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡𝗦 𝗧𝗛𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗-𝟮
So we had discussed a few pointers in the previous thread about options,its time now we discuss further implications and applicability in this thread which will help you in NEW YEAR.
Let’s go and dive into the world of options trading.

-The amount of decay can be measured by theta. This is why you can be right on stock price direction and still lose money. The time decay portion of the option price overpowers the directional move in the underlying stock price.

-During result days due to the heightened uncertainty, there is opportunity for options sellers because of the expensive premium. When entering into an earnings trade, it is optimal to initiate the trade as close in time to the event as possible.

-Keep some cash on sidelines. This would help in adjustments,margin expansion,face losses and also during new opportunities which suddenly arise. A lot of people do the mistake of going all in and regretting later.

-Everything in trading has a trade off.

Unlimited profit comes at the expense of low probability of profit. Give up some profit potential, and you gain a higher probability of profit.
-By using portfolio beta weighted delta, you can accurately gauge your overall portfolio risk. If your portfolio is leaning too far in..
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Ray \U0001f981
Ray 🦁
@RayTL_
10 truths I wish I knew when I started trading:

Trading always was, is, and will always be a game against yourself. Nobody can make it happen for you, and there’s nobody to beat.

Your only chance of winning is to practice being a better version of yourself today than you were yesterday.

/1

Traders waste so much energy lamenting on "I missed this" - if all that energy was spent on fixing a problem they just identified — many of them would be better off than they are today.

Be a good problem solver, not a complainer. That negative energy is no bueno.

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Performance is a byproduct of position sizing.

Position Sizing stems from conviction.

Conviction is built by doing deep dives and studying specific setups in the markets, especially ones that tap into its structural tendencies consistently.

/3

Have a few setups you know really really well.

I have hundreds of examples on each, done deep dives & can trade them when I see them instinctively.

You have to know exactly what ur looking for…so u can repeatedly execute those setups & make them sources of income.

/4
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Richard Chu
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@richard_chu97
1/ I used to think that the biggest gains had to come from stocks that no one knew about

One of the harder lessons for me to internalize has been that oftentimes, unknown stocks stay unknown for a reason and you can still earn attractive returns from stocks everyone's bullish on

2/ While I’m not contrarian just for the sake of being contrarian, I do think it’s important to question everything.

When I started out, I would buy "quality" stocks like FB or TSLA without doing much research.

But an opinion being consensus doesn’t make it the truth.

3/ So owning the most popular stocks made me nervous. If a winner is so obvious then either it's priced in or maybe I'm missing something?

I preferred owning stocks that others weren’t aware of or were bearish on for the wrong reasons (more room for upside surprises).

4/ But there are degrees

Despite being widely popular, stocks like SHOP have been some of the best performers because they exceeded even the most bullish projections

And some stocks like TSLA are partly popular because they are great consumer products which is an important sign

5/ On the other hand, while the biggest winners can be found in micro-caps, many of which started out very undervalued with no analyst coverage, on average, they tend to underperform larger caps

Picking out the big winners earlier on is very difficult and there is no set formula
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H was always unseen in S2NL :)

Those who exited at 1500 needed money. They can always come back near 969. Those who exited at 230 also needed money. They can come back near 95.

Those who sold L @ 660 can always come back at 360. Those who sold S last week can be back @ 301
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Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
12 TRADING SETUPS which experts are using.

These setups I found from the following 4 accounts:

1. @Pathik_Trader
2. @sourabhsiso19
3. @ITRADE191
4. @DillikiBiili

Share for the benefit of everyone.

Here are the setups from @Pathik_Trader Sir first.

1. Open Drive (Intraday Setup explained)


Bactesting results of Open Drive


2. Two Price Action setups to get good long side trade for intraday.

1. PDC Acts as Support
2. PDH Acts as


Example of PDC/PDH Setup given
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Angad Singh
@Singh7575
𝙎𝙝𝙖𝙧𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙢𝙮 𝙬𝙞𝙨𝙙𝙤𝙢 𝑾𝒐𝒏'𝒕 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒓𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒆𝒅 𝒊𝒇 𝒕𝒐𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒓𝒐𝒘 𝒖 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒔𝒕𝒖𝒇𝒇 𝒊𝒏 50𝒌 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒌𝒔𝒉𝒐𝒑 𝒐𝒓 𝒔𝒐𝒎𝒆𝒐𝒏𝒆 𝒎𝒂𝒏𝒂𝒈𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒆𝒚 𝒘𝒊𝒕𝒉 𝒔𝒂𝒎𝒆 𝒍𝒐𝒈𝒊𝒄
Simple and effective way 2 make Money


Idea 1:- Use pivot level like 14800 in case of nifty and sell 14800straddle monthly expiry (365+335) exit if nifty closes on daily basis below S1 or above R1

After closing below S1 if it closes above S1 next day or any day enter the same position again vice versa for R1

Idea2:- Use R1 and S1 corresponding strikes multiple
Incase of R1 15337 take 15300ce
N in case of S1 14221 use 14200pe
Sell both and hold till expiry or exit if nifty closes below S1 or above R1 around closing
If the same bounces above S1 and falls below R1 re-enfer same strikes

Use same criteria for nifty, usdinr and banknifty

(This is must)Use this margin rule for 1lot banknifty pair keep 4Lax margin
For nifty one lot keep 3Lax
For usdinr 100lots keep 4Lax

I bet you if you do this on consistent basis your ROI will be more than 70% on yearly basis.

Couldn't explain easier than this

Criticisms are most welcomed.
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , MONTHLY OPTIONS SELLING , OPTIONS LEARNING
Jaya_Upadhyaya
Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1
NARHARI AND BHAGWAN PANDURANG/VITTHAL

Once a goldsmith by the name of Narhari lived in Pandharpur. He excelled in his craft. He had vowed not to look at Pandurang or visit his mandir ever, as he was a Shiva Bhakt.
One day, a wealthy merchant visited him.


He wanted a gold girdle studded with precious gems, to be made for Prabhu Vitthal. Narhari refused to make it as it was for Vitthal.
After many requests, he agreed to make the girdle but asked the merchant to bring the measurement from the mandir as he himself would not go there


The measurement was given n he made the girdle. When the girdle was put on Vitthal, it was loose. Narhari had to shorten it. Now the girdle became tight. So Narhari was forced to take measurement on his own. He had to go to the mandir but went blindfolded to avoid seeing Vitthal


In the Mandir, when blindfolded Narhari touched Vitthal, he felt as if he was touching Shiva with matted hair, the moon, snake in His neck and Trishul in His hand. Ecstatic with joy, he removed the blindfold to see Shiva but he found the murti of Vitthal with Rukmini there.


He realised the truth that there was no difference between Vitthal and Shiva. Narhari at once fell at the feet of Panduranga. He then took the measurement of the waist of Vitthal and this time the ornament fit the Murti perfectly.

Narayan Hari🙏🏻
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Shaun Russell
Shaun Russell
@_ShaunRussell
"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.

And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.

They find their own way.
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