What is a True Market Leader / TML (Thread)

(And how to find them)

In one sentence a TML is an institutional quality stock in a leading industry group with superior fundamentals and technicals

These are monster stocks which over the course of weeks and months increase +100% to +5,000%
TMLs are popular with traders/investors whose methodology is based on the CANSLIM system developed by William O'Neil.

He called them Model Book Stocks. Huge winners worth studying to identify common characteristics that they all share
O'Neil studied over 1000 model book stocks going back to the 1880s.

Many are shown and discussed in these must read books

How To Make Money in Stocks, O"Neil
https://t.co/S2sShZedUm

Monster Stocks, John Boik @monsterstocks1 https://t.co/Cw1O9ZazGO

https://t.co/1iAGYk6Brs
A Few Examples courtesy of @SystematiCK_

Pic N Save 1979

https://t.co/d03nEEF4Eq
Netflix 2009

https://t.co/Q7hI22VoMT
Home Depot 1982

https://t.co/hd5c3rm0Si
So what are the Fundamental characteristics of a TML?

Superior:

Quarterly Sales Growth > 25% YoY
Quarterly Earnings Growth > 25% YoY
Pre+After Tax Margins >20% Recent Quarters
ROE >17%
Annual Earnings Ests for the next year > 25%

Story- A new and innovative product or service
Not every TML will have all of these criteria, but in general their record should be outstanding with regards to most of them.

The higher these values the better. Earnings and Sales growth over 100% QoQ is ideal. Annual Estimates for next year over 100% would be exceptional
TMLs are also often in the Top 20 Industry groups at the times of their runs.

The TML is the leader of an overall top group which is riding the tailwinds of changing environments.

Recent examples $SE $SHOP $AMZN Retail-Internet
$TSLA $NIO Electric Vehicles (Auto Manufacturers)
Additionally base liquidity is required for these stocks to be institutional quality.

Dollar Volume > $30 Million is essential and most should have DV much higher than that

@Upticken Likes greater than $100 Million
Accumulation by big hedge funds and mutual funds like Fidelity Contrafund are what move the markets. They won't touch a promising stock unless it has liquidity.
Now for Technical Characteristics of TMLs:

Above a Rising 30 Week Moving Average
Breaking out of a Stage 1 or Stage 2 Base
Trending above Key Moving Averages (10, 21ema, 50sma)
Volume and Price contractions within bases
Up/Down Vol> 1.2
Huge gaps up on volume after Earning Beat
And most importantly they must be showing Relative Strength, meaning they are outperforming the vast majority of stocks in the market.

This. is. vital.

RS Rating over 97 is ideal
During corrections and overall market weakness they should be near all time highs, above their longer term moving averages

They should be standing out like a sore thumb.

@duckman1717 compiled a great resource for relative strength clues

https://t.co/zy3RUEYF9B
During Market Uptrends they should be trending above the shorter term moving averages, forming sideways shelfs during small pullbacks and then breaking out again.

Most stay above their 50 SMAs and even 21 emas for extended periods of time.
So how to scan for them.

Use @MarketSmith, the IBD Stock Screener, Finviz, or another screener

and screen for the fundamental criteria mentioned above
combined with the stock over the 200+50 SMA
It's helpful to have multiple screens splitting up the criteria for instance one scan for the earnings and one for sales.
On Fintwit we also have great traders who share their screens + focus lists.

@PatternProfits
@TMLTrader
@dennisc230
@alphacharts365

are a few who help keep me focused on TMLs
Along with the key books mentioned previously

The Lifecycle Trade by

@EBoboch
@KGD_Investor
@EricKrull1
@Top_Dog_102

Is a great resource which studied recent IPO super growth stocks and compared different rule sets to trade them

https://t.co/Ka6g7ND4uU
And Finally here is a good list of recent TMLs.

Study their charts, where you would have entered and exited given your rules

$LVGO 2020
$TSLA 2019, 2020
$DOCU 2020
$FSLY 2020
$PTON 2020
$SHOP Any recent year
$AMD 2018
$ZM 2020

More from Richard Moglen 📽️🦁🚢

The Importance of Trading Rules (Quick thread)

Last week I sent out this poll asking if people have a written


Over 60% of people said they did not have one.

It's now one of my main goals to get as many people as possible to commit to writing their own rules which codify their goals and methods.

I strongly believe that writing down your strategy especially if you are a new trader/investor will lead to improved and more consistent performance in the stock market.

Trading the markets is a tough business, money is on the line and emotions can run high.

Preparing ahead of time is essential so that in the moment you are just executing your plan.

This is the best way to stay in the game for the long haul
How to time the market (thread)

There is the old saying that “Time in the market beats timing the market” The chart below from Dr. Wish’s @WishingWealth presentation at the @TraderLion_ conference shows that to be false.

Full presentation:
https://t.co/o2f21GBXci


The green line is unattainable realistically, however, missing volatile times during corrections yields better performance than buy and hold and we can aim for the green line.

Investors usually only show the gray and red results.

More

There are many strategies for investing/trading in the stock market operating within different timeframes and with different objectives.

That is of course what creates a market and opportunity. Timing the market may not be what works for you or what fits your goals/lifestyle.

However, everyone involved in the market is here to make money over time and corrections can cause huge drawdowns in the high alpha names negating incredible performance during strong market uptrends.

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