BC THREAD
Saved by @DidwaniaSharad

I have shared multiple information related to trading and investing through my historical data analysis by writing various articles, here's the master thread that contains all my work in one place.🧵

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More from Kirubakaran Rajendran

Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A thread on Position Sizing #Trading is the only profession where you can see Doctors, Engineers, and many other successful professionals try their luck with stock market, these people excel in their own respective field but struggle a lot when it comes to trading.1/n

Unfortunately, everybody believes that a successful trader always has a secret Technical Skill. But the truth is Technical skill is the least important factor to be a superstar trader.

Then what separates a great trader from the group of average traders? Its their emotion.


This is how most traders think: They first think about the Entry point, at which price should I buy? At which level should I enter? At which point should I get into a trade?


But this is how you must think to be a profitable trader. You have to adapt to trading strategy that suits your psychology, assign trade management rules, keep position sizing and money management rules.


One of the main reason people lose money in stock market is because of their position size. Example: Vicky starts trading with a capital of Rs. 1,00,000 and he finds a trading opportunity and buys Spice Jet share for Rs. 100. At the max, he can buy 1000 shares of Spice Jet stock.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A small thread on Mindset of a successful trader. What differentiates best traders from the bad ones? Why 95% of the traders don’t make money? Trading is an unpredictable game, how could one win in that? 1/n


Many people think some magical strategy or indicators is all they need to be successful at Trading. But what really goes in the minds of a successful trader? Professor Hichman Benjelloun did a research on this.

Successful traders have poker face. If you talk to successful traders or chat with them, you can’t figure out if they are happy or sad. Having good time or bad time.

For them making money or losing money is same thing, as they say a good trader feels great after a good trade, but a great trader feels NOTHING after a great trade. They control their emotions not only in trading but also outside their trading life. They are highly disciplined

Whether they are making money or losing money, they continue with their daily routine, going to gym, cycling etc they don’t skip it because of a losing trade. It doesn’t affect them. They have probability mind set. What does that mean?
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
I have watched lot of movies but only few movies would change your perspective towards life, here’s the 10 movies that really changed my mindset

1.The Theory of Everything

Brilliant acting , truly mesmerising portrayal on life of Stephen Hawking, never felt bored even for a sec


2. Rush - it’s a film about F1 racer James Hunt & Nikki Lauda, excellent narration and incredible acting. The dialogues were truly masterpiece and it’s still stays in mind even after 9 years


3. The Founder - This movie released at the right time in my life, when I was about to quit my job and focus full time on my startup. This movie is all about single man Ray Kroc who built a billion dollar empire McDonalds. This is the best entrepreneurship movie ever made.


4. The Imitation Game - I watched this movie when I started my rule based trading journey in 2014, struggled a lot during my initial phase with code, unable to get any breakthrough, this film gave my that ray of hope. It’s about a mathematician who broke the code n won the war


5. The Pursuit of Happyness - any favourite Movie list would be incomplete without this movie. Will Smith, damn what an actor he is. I watched this movie when I was in college days, still remember the day, I was crying non stop during the interview scene. Brilliant film.
MOVIES BUCKET
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Year 2022 has been disastrous for many asset classes, the world economy is at 40 year high inflation. Are we headed for another stock market crash? Here's a detailed analysis. 🧵


Emerging markets like SriLanka is in middle of collapse, which is facing severe depression. World Bank has predicted 70 more countries might default in coming years. With so many negative news, from equity to bitcoin every asset class facing severe sell off across the globe.

Everyone is currently talking about Inflation, rise in oil prices, Russian-Ukraine war and frequent lockdowns in China which is disrupting the supply chain. These are some of the major threats which could slowdown the world economy. But will these cause a stock market crash? No!


author of The Psychology of Money was once said

"The biggest economy risk is what no one is talking about. When no one is talking about it, no one is prepared for it. When no one is prepared for it, damage is too much."

COVID-19 no one in the world expected such a pandemic in the modern world, no one thought we would get locked down, entire world would get shut. This is mother of all surprises, no one was prepared for it.
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Earlier many traders were trading based on discretionary without any rules based approach. Now a lot of traders are ready to move to algo trading but confused with a lot of options. When you are bombarded with tons of different trading systems, how do you choose the best one?

Many traders still think winning accuracy is the most important parameter in a trading system. But is it really true? Let's check this example. Consider, we have three different trading systems.
System A,
System B and
System C.


System A has 90% winning accuracy,
System B has 10% winning accuracy and
System C has 50% accuracy.
When given a choice, most traders will opt for System A as it has the highest winning accuracy of all with 90%.

But System A is not the right choice. The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.1000, that is 90% of the time System A is capable of making Rs.1000 profit. But remaining 10% of the time when the system is making a loss, it loses a lot. So after 100 trades, net result is -10,000

System B, The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.10,000, that is 10% of the time System B is capable of making Rs.10K profit, which is ten times higher than its losing trade. The average loss in a losing trade is Rs.1,000 but 90% of the time the system will continue to lose.
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More from Thread

VatsRohit
VatsRohit
@KesariDhwaj
This is a result of credit fueled big ticket purchases of which buying a home is a big component. No amount of saving will cover the housing EMIs payable over one year. To this, add EMIs of 1 or 2 cars, and you've monthly EMIs running into 1 Lakh+. Now, add monthly house-hold +


+ expense, school fee and other sundry expenses and suddenly, you'll find a family unable to sustain itself w/o cash-flow for even 3-4 months. And most important of them all -
HAVING ASSETS IS NOT SAME AS HAVING CASH.
+

+ From personal experience, I think this is what you need to do:
- Maintain between Rs 1-2 Lakhs in emergency cash at all times.
- Use your Credit Cards wisely. They can be good source of large credit in an emergency.
- Work out your monthly house-hold expenses and EMIs
+

- Build a cash-reserve to cover your household expenses for a 6-month or 1-year period.
- Consider food, electricity, mobile/internet, your kids school fee, fuel, rent etc.
- Then work out your EMI obligations and see what level of reserves you can create for them.
- Maintain+

+ this back-up fund in cash/near cash assets.
- So, that you can utilize them as per requirement and are not subject to market forces.
THREAD
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
I gathered FREE tools for Traders.

Save ₹10,000 per month and 10+ hours each week.

Here's what they are:

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

🧵

1/ @screener_in

Stock analysis and screening tool for investors in India.

For Fundamental analysis, this is the #1

2/ @i4option

Closest tool to Opstra.

Let's you mock trade for free to get a feel for the real markets.

All features like market breadth, options and futures data etc is

3/ @tradingtick

Makes options trading easy with lots of options analysis tools.

Options data with Open Interest, FII Data, Trending OIs, heatmat etc.

Can get free Straddle charts here

4/ OptionX

Automate your option trading strategy without any coding.

Simply copy/paste their existing strategy from Stockmock and execute it with optionx
THREAD , ALL , TOOLS
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Ehden
Ehden
@eh_den
PFIZERLEAK: EXPOSING THE PFIZER MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY AGREEMENT.

(thread)

Background:
Pfizer has been extremely aggressive in trying to protect the details of their international COVID19 vaccine agreements.

Luckily, I've managed to get one.

#PfizerLeak
#Pfizer


Because the cost of developing contracts is very high and time consuming (legal review cycles), Pfizer, like all corporations, develop a standardized agreement template and use these agreements with relatively minor adjustments in different countries.

#PfizerLeak
#Pfizer

These agreements are confidential, but luckily one country did not protect the contract document well enough, so I managed to get a hold of a copy.

As you are about to see, there is a good reason why Pfizer was fighting to hide the details of these contracts.
#PfizerLeak
#Pfizer


First, let's talk about the product:
The agreement not only covers manufacturing of vaccines for COVID19 and its mutations, but also for "any device, technology, or product used in the administration of or to enhance the use or effect of, such vaccine".

#PfizerLeak
#Pfize


If you were wondering why #Ivermectin was suppressed, well, it is because the agreement that countries had with Pfizer does not allow them to escape their contract, which states that even if a drug will be found to treat COVID19 the contract cannot be voided.

#PfizerLeak
#Pfizer
THREAD , ALL
Navroop Singh
Navroop Singh
@NavroopSingh_
Shakuni is considered a villan in Mahabharat, some one who was responsible for Vinash of Kuru Vansh. But y was he after Kuru Vansh when her own sister was maharani of Bharat Varsha at that time. A story many dont know.

When Gandhari was born in her a Kundli there was a yog that her first husband would die & 2nd one would survive. Hence Gandhari's first marraige was done with a goat was later sacrificed removing the dosh in her Kundli.

Gandhar king got the proposal of Dhritrashtra for Gandhari. Gandhari got to know about blindness of Dhritrashtra & yet accepted the marraige proposal to keep the word of her father. Shakuni was unhappy with her beloved sister marrying a blind king.

After marraige when Dhritrashtra got to know that Gandhari had the Mrityu dosh in Kundli, the army of hastinapur attacked the Kingdom of Gandhar & making all male members of Gandhar vansh bandhis.

The Gandhar King's family was hardly given anything to eat with one serving of rice to entire clan. The family decided to feed their heir Shakuni who cud live & destroy the Kuru vansh.
THREAD
Alex Lieberman \u2615\ufe0f
Alex Lieberman ☕️...
@businessbarista
The Olympic Games are controversial.

They're amazing for unity & entertainment.

But they're a horrible business.

THREAD: A story of billions in costs, misaligned incentives & crippling debt. 🧵

172%.

Any guesses what that represents?

That number is % over budget.

Since 1960, the Olympics have run over-budget by 172%.

And no Olympics have ever run under-budget.


The Olympics have the highest cost overrun of any mega project in the world.

Olympics: 172%
Mega dams: 90%
Trains: 45%
Bridge & tunnels: 34%
Roads: 20%

The 2021 Tokyo Games is no exception.

2013: bid projected $7.4 billion of costs

2019: official budget of $14.6 billion

2020: budget revised to $15.4 billion

2021: government auditors project total spending will be $28 billion.


Tokyo is the 2nd most expensive Olympics ever.

At $28 billion, it's more than the GDP of:

- Uganda
- El Salvador
- Iceland
- Jamaica
- Madagascar
- Fiji
THREAD

You May Also Like

Kevin Murphy
Kevin Murphy
@kwmurphy
Okay look - I didn’t grow up with comic books. But I read stacks of science fiction digests and I kit-bashed model cars into fantasy rods, and just tried to maintain a low profile until I could get out of the house. So you could say I’m a distant cousin of the comic book fan. /1

And sometimes one’s childhood passion follows them into adulthood, sometimes not, sometimes as an adult one finds a passion they never had as a child and embraces it. For me, that must include getting involved with a puppet show at the age of thirty. /2

So who’s to say whose passion’s legitimate and whose is bogus? Nobody. Someone might indict your passion but they have no ground to stand on and should be dismissed out of hand. /3

Maybe they’re envious that you have a passion, maybe they think that their passion is cooler than yours, or maybe they’re just insecure, who knows. Doesn’t matter. /4

What matters is that if something gives you joy, and in the process doesn’t hurt others, then by all means follow it. It’s how we explore our secret hopes, our shadow sides, our inner character. /5
CULTURE
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Some people really benefit from hearing advice that everyone knows, for the same reason we keep schools open despite every subject in them having been taught before.

In that spirit, here's some quick Things Many People Find Too Obvious To Have Told You Already.

Your idea is not valuable, at all. All value is in the execution. You think you are an exception; you are not. You should not insist on an NDA to talk about it; nobody serious will engage in contract review over an idea, and this will mark you as clueless.

Technologists tend to severely underestimate the difficulty and expense of creating software, especially at companies which do not have fully staffed industry leading engineering teams ("because software is so easy there, amirite guys?")

Charge more. Charge more still. Go on.

The press is a lossy and biased compression of events in the actual world, and is singularly consumed with its own rituals, status games, and incentives. The news necessarily fails to capture almost everything which happened yesterday. What it says is important usually isn't.

Companies find it incredibly hard to reliably staff positions with hard-working generalists who operate autonomously and have high risk tolerances. This is not the modal employee, including at places which are justifiably proud of the skill/diligence/etc of their employees.
TECH
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Jonathan Ware
Jonathan Ware
@ReassessHistory
So when it first appeared in Normandy, the Sherman Firefly and it's meaty 17 pounder represented an ideal combo of reliable chassis, great gun and devastating firepower right?

Ummm...

Truth is a bit more complex. /1
#WW2 #SWW #History


Deliveries of Firefly to units only commenced in April 1944,
just a few weeks before Overlord & left minimal time for familiarisation.

Armoured Regiments mostly utilised Fireflies on a basis of 1 per troop of 4 tanks. /2


Finally each armoured regiment troop had access to integral, meaty, anti-tank firepower capable of dealing serious damage to any German AFV likely to be encountered. /3


The dual purpose 75mm gun was quite capable of laying down a reasonable HE shell or AP round for dealing with Panzer III or IV.

Firefly's 17 Pounder had.... problems with HE, but excelled at tank killing. So Tigers and Panthers would need to be wary. /4


Firefly's design history dated back to March 1943 when the General Staff published "Policy on Tanks" which effectively stated the majority of tanks should have a good HE weapon and...

[See image below] /5
HISTORY
Billy Bostickson \U0001f3f4\U0001f441&\U0001f441 \U0001f193
Billy Bostickson 🏴👁&👁 ...
@BillyBostickson
1/x Fort Detrick History
Mr. Patrick, one of the chief scientists at the Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md., held five classified US patents for the process of weaponizing anthrax.

2/x
Under Mr. Patrick’s direction, scientists at Fort Detrick developed a tularemia agent that, if disseminated by airplane, could cause casualties & sickness over 1000s mi². In a 10,000 mi² range, it had 90% casualty rate & 50% fatality rate


3/x His team explored Q fever, plague, & Venezuelan equine encephalitis, testing more than 20 anthrax strains to discern most lethal variety. Fort Detrick scientists used aerosol spray systems inside fountain pens, walking sticks, light bulbs, & even in 1953 Mercury exhaust pipes


4/x After retiring in 1986, Mr. Patrick remained one of the world’s foremost specialists on biological warfare & was a consultant to the CIA, FBI, & US military. He debriefed Soviet defector Ken Alibek, the deputy chief of the Soviet biowarfare program
https://t.co/sHqSaTSqtB


5/x Back in Time
In 1949 the Army created a small team of chemists at "Camp Detrick" called Special Operations Division. Its assignment was to find military uses for toxic bacteria. The coercive use of toxins was a new field, which fascinated Allen Dulles, later head of the CIA
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Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
A thread on HN about bad code in legacy projects both makes me think how little we've learned as a discipline over the years and, honestly, how little credit we give ourselves for some pretty major

Fun going down this list and thinking: "Hmm, plausible at a well-run modern software shop", "Hmm, possible, but requires implausible tradeoffs", "Literally disallowed by languages", and "If you were to attempt doing that our test suite wouldn't let you merge."

I think we as an industry celebrate (not quite the right word) failure too much and don't celebrate success nearly enough. There is no DailyWTF for competent execution, word of which generally stays pretty local to the source while incompetence passes into legend.

Alrighty let me try to thread the needle on being the change I want to see in the world while not giving away anything that will get me in trouble:

Ruby has wonderful developer ergonomics. Typed languages are easier for machines to guarantee the correctness of. We built a type checker for Ruby (and I believe it is slated for OSS release sometime).

c.f.
TECH