BC TECH
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Well, we’re between coup attempts and attempts to throw out a seditionist president, so I’m going to take the opportunity to describe this research that was recently accepted in @SERestoration for the grassland ecology SF.

 Led by @Blackburn_RC and in collaboration with @barberecology and others not on the Twitters, this work was from Ryan’s MSc research @NIULive. I say research and not thesis, dear reader, bc it didn’t make it into his thesis.
Truth be told, this was an epic battle of computer vs researcher and many times, it felt like computer won. I encourage students in my lab pick a risky part and less risky part of their research. Drone imagery was Ryan’s risky part.
As sometimes happens w the risky part, this one didn't go in the thesis, but Ryan persevered to get it published nonetheless.
More times than not, in fact, it felt like the drone work went like this:
Ask @Blackburn_RC for the tale of the battle because today, I’m just going to stick to the findings. We wanted to see whether drone imagery could accurately predict the fine-scale ecological data we were gathering @nachusa, a tallgrass prairie #restoration.
We used a fixed wing @Parrot DiscoProAg drone paired w Sequoia sensor, which collects green, red, red-edge and near-infrared bands of wavelength.

Parrot provided this drone to us via a climate change grant (thanks, Parrot!).

Here is how takeoffs are supposed to go, btw.
Ryan flew this puppy over all of Nachusa (how many flights, Ryan?), and we compared indices arrived f the sensor (e.g. NDVI and many others) to the plant/soil data we’d collected at the local scale.
Our broad question was: Could we use indices collected by drone imagery to predict soil nutrients, plant biomass, plant composition or functional traits?
A lot of research has shown in monocrops, drone imagery can be used to approximate leaf N content, biomass, etc. But what about in one of the most diverse grasslands?
Of the 66 responses we measured (b/c we looked at max/min/mean/variance of various responses, response numbers blew up quickly), four worked when predicting the data values from the training sets we used to generate predictions.
Specifically, mean graminoid (grass-like stuff) cover, dead aboveground biomass, dry biomass, and mean soil K were predicted with multispectral drone imagery! This is cool bc multi spec sensors are cost effective compared to hyper spectral sensors which are super expensive.
Another note is that bc we chose which sites to use for the test data randomly, our only remnant in the study and a woodier site ended up in the test data set.
That meant we were using drone indices f restoration sites that were much different, to try to predict soil, plant, and biomass dynamics of pretty different sites ecologically.
What’s that mean? I think that if we had better paired sites ecologically, perhaps even more biodiversity indices could have been predicted, even in the super heterogenous landscape pictured.
So, take home: Drones w relatively cheap multispectral sensors might be a good tool to predict landscape-scale changed in ecological data, that it’s too time and cost-intensive to measure over such large scales.
Another take home: Drone image processing, stitching, etc. can be a huge pain in the butt.
Lastly, we used Ridge Regression to analyze the tons of independent variables we had (24 indices and all their mins/maxes, variances, means medians, etc - more than the dependent variables), and that tool is underutilized in drone studies, but we found it to be effective.
So...any of y'all looking for the riskier sides of projects, give drone imagery a try...it will give you endless data, punctuated with a few headaches, but also lots of fun new stats and questions to ask. /end
And...just in case you all missed it, in typical Ryan fashion, he did better at me in conveying the drone launch fail: https://t.co/gIC5gLJ4vn

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Venkatesh Rao
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There are only 3 real challenges to free speech at the tech level a) the need for CDNs at scale b) distortions of net neutrality c) nation-state firewalls.

All other claims are about social governance on private sites, where applying free speech doctrine is a stretch at best

Baseline free speech has expanded modestly since 1776 or whatever your reference point is.

About 20% beyond core case of government-critical speech in formally public spaces and media I'd say.

You can (for example) have more kinds of conversations in a bar without getting punched or kicked out by other patrons or management. You can teach more things in colleges than 100 years ago.

That's a genuine de facto increase in practical, informal free speech/expression.

But online free "speech" is, as @reneed has pointed out, not an expansion of free speech at all, but an expansion of reach. It is like the secondary freedom of the press to print as many copies as they can afford, not primary freedom to say what they want

If a newspaper wants to print more copies it has buy more printing equipment and front more upfront costs. Reach for a paper publication is not "free", but a function of desired circulation, which in turn is a function of demand prediction etc. But that logic is obscured online.
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foone
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I got a Toshiba T1200, which has a bad screen, and a dead CMOS battery, and I thought the hard drive was broken too...


but I rebooted it and heard a KTHUNK and a really loud spin-up noise and holy shit, the hard drive works!


and it still has files on it. the newest date is January 1994.


It's a 21mb hard drive, with ~37k of bad sectors.

This fucker is never going to spin up again, so I better go find some serial cables and copy shit off now.


The backlight is fucked so I'm shining a flashlight on it.
without it, it looks like this.
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Simon Wardley #EEA
Simon Wardley #EEA
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X : Our executive team is concerned that we need to up our game in order to out innovate Amazon.
Me : Do you map?
X : Yes
Me : Like this?
X : No. What's that?
Me : A map of a tea shop.


X : Why is that a map?
Me : Long story, all to do with how space has meaning. To keep it short, maps help people to focus on user needs, the components involved, to communicate missing components and scenario play ideas like staff becoming robots.


Me : They’re also good for measuring and managing capital flow, making investment decisions, removing bias and getting rid of duplication.
X : I don’t see how that helps with innovation?


Me : Well, innovation is a tricky word because we use it to describe many things. If you’re talking about differentiation with the adjacent unexplored then you’re experimenting in the “uncharted” space e.g. immortality with magic provided by the special custom built kettle.


X : That sounds like nonsense.
Me : A lot of what people think will be the next great innovation is nonsense. Actually, most of it is. That’s the nature of the uncharted space, it’s experimental, high risk and generally results in failure.
X : We need more reliable innovation.
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I am grateful to @slatestarcodex for taking the time to respond to my critique of technocracy. There is a lot there to respond to and in general I think the exchange speaks for itself. However, I think there are few points where clarification is important for the exchange to be

productive, which I'll briefly address here. I suspect many fellow travelers (e.g. @audreyt @dsallentess @JohnnieM @MichelleRempel @VitalikButerin @mds49) will find the exchange fairly ironic/revealing. I'll post this as a response on this blog as well.

1. Let me start with concessions. There are many points where @slatestarcodex correctly highlights various areas where my grasp of beliefs and facts are limited or wrong, especially in the depth of my grasp of the views of the rationalist community.

I freely admit that there are serious limits to how much I've been able to research the views of people in this community and I certainly hope they are not as I characterized them, though as I will point out below many elements of @slatestarcodex's response confirm my concerns.

2. Given the last point, I fully acknowledge the danger of throwing stones lest I shatter my own glass house. However, leaving aside any blame, I think to make sense of my piece and @slatestarcodex's response requires a bit of context that clearly he lacked. First, outside
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James Felton
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The Phantom of Heilbronn (or how for 16 years the German police hunted a serial killer who didn't exist)

(Thread, non sweary version here: https://t.co/iDOIhaFgIT)


Between the years of 1993 and 2009, police in Heilbronn, Germany were tracking just about the most elusive serial killer since Ted Cruz.

Known as the Phantom of Heilbronn, or occasionally The Woman Without A Face, she was implicated in so many crimes that the police eventually put out a reward of €300,000 for any information leading to her arrest.

The case that brought her to the media's attention and earned her two ridiculously badass nicknames

(honestly, if you don't want people to do murders you're going to have to come up with less glamorous nicknames - what's wrong with Jack Shitshispants or the Zodiac Cuck)
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An interesting set of games that I've been vaguely interested in since I was a kid, after seeing one at a friend's house and never being able to find it again, was the BATTLES IN A DISTANT DESERT/BATTLES ON DISTANT PLANETS series.


These are turn-based wargames for windows 3.x, sharing the same engine.
Battles in a Distant Desert is from 1992, and is based on the first Iraq war (Desert Storm)


and Battles on Distant Planets is from 1991, and takes place in SPACE!
I'm pretty sure this is the one I played as a kid.


They've got 3 options to play with:
* Player vs. Player
* Player vs. Computer
* Computer vs. Computer

So it's a 0-2 player game!


They also did a DOS strategy game called "STARDATE 2140.2: GALACTIC CONQUEST" in 1990, but it seems to be lost.
All the games share an experimental AI system based on neural networks.
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foone
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So I was talking to @gewt about Job: A Comedy of Justice and I came up with a theory that I think explains why Heinlein's late-period work is so kinda-terrible and why I still enjoy it so much


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It probably comes from how much of his early stuff was short fiction

And I think what happened with a lot of his longer works is that he'd just start writing fun bits and hope it would end up going somewhere or having a bigger plot by the end. like eventually he'd figure out where this was going, then go back and rewrite it into a cohesive whole

and I'm sure he had editors that'd help this process. No editor would let you publish something as rambly and changing-gears-every-other-chapter as The Number Of The Beast, for example... unless you were God-King Of Science Fiction 1980s Robert Heinlein.

so basically I think what happened is that by the 80s (when he was in his seventies!!) he lost the drive to go back and rewrite and he was too Untouchable for editors to make him.
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Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
शमशान में जब महर्षि दधीचि के मांसपिंड का दाह संस्कार हो रहा था तो उनकी पत्नी अपने पति का वियोग सहन नहीं कर पायी और पास में ही स्थित विशाल पीपल वृक्ष के कोटर में अपने तीन वर्ष के बालक को रख के स्वयं चिता पे बैठ कर सती हो गयी ।इस प्रकार ऋषी दधीचि और उनकी पत्नी की मुक्ति हो गयी।


परन्तु पीपल के कोटर में रखा बालक भूख प्यास से तड़पने लगा। जब कुछ नहीं मिला तो वो कोटर में पड़े पीपल के गोदों (फल) को खाकर बड़ा होने लगा। कालान्तर में पीपल के फलों और पत्तों को खाकर बालक का जीवन किसी प्रकार सुरक्षित रहा।

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नारद बोले - बालक तुम कौन हो?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चहता हूँ ।
नारद - तुम्हारे जनक कौन हैं?
बालक - यही तो मैं भी जानना चाहता हूँ ।

तब नारद ने आँखें बन्द कर ध्यान लगाया ।


तत्पश्चात आश्चर्यचकित हो कर बालक को बताया कि 'हे बालक! तुम महान दानी महर्षि दधीचि के पुत्र हो । तुम्हारे पिता की अस्थियों का वज्रास्त्र बनाकर ही देवताओं ने असुरों पर विजय पायी थी।तुम्हारे पिता की मृत्यु मात्र 31 वर्ष की वय में ही हो गयी थी'।

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नारद - शनिदेव की महादशा।
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EVERY SINGLE THING HE’S DONE since taking office is to achieve those purposes—that and to enrich himself personally.

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1/ His entire family is part of this. Melania is a fucking crook. Ivanka is a fucking crook. Junior and Gums are fucking crooks. They will all die in prison, except for Kushner, who, if he really *did* trade US intel for money, should be executed for espionage.

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3/ Trump steals. He takes taxpayer money—your money and mine—and lines his pockets with it. He exploits his office to make himself richer. This is all he cares about. Why are Republican citizens, you “fiscal conservatives,” not more angry about this? Riddle me THAT, #MAGA.

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