Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

1/7

The seemingly convincing breakout retest structure in abv daily chart takes a cocpletely different picture in u open the chart in weekly TF

shooting start at the resistance line of a triangle and at a major supply zone

2/7
Major stocks such as heromoto, maruti, eichermot and babajauto are already trading below the breakout level it established on monday when sector broke out

3/7
This poses a serious question on the risks associated with breakout.

Popularity behind the breakout is the fact that it doesnt need any skills to spot it, even a 90% blind man can spot it in any chart, because the price just sticks out from the rest by a very big margin

4/7
But think about a completely diffferent method where the price makes a clean move and the risks assicated with it is cubstantially less.

Price available so cheap and at support

5/7
Here the price was caught at reistance and when everyone is interested in breakout, u can smoothly exit in silence with filliing the limit orders in profit booking

6/7
These charts of cnxauto were posted live. It was not postmortem analysis to justify a done move.

The moral of the story is mean revrsion which demands better skills and insights offer much bigger advantage compared to the popular version of brekaout trading

7/7

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#Freetip
Today's move is an example of this tweet. Save this chart for future ref. https://t.co/amUhSLrET3
Should you add more in Equity or redeem right now?

A thread 🧵to guide retail on why & what should they do at these historic market highs.

Do ‘re-tweet’ and help us educate more retail investors (1/n)

#investing #StockMarket

Some investors feel that markets are trading at a PE of 27 vs 10 years historical average of 20 and a market-cap to GDP of 105 vs historical average of 79 and hence markets look expensive (2/n)


But, in such crazy liquidity driven markets, prices can move much ahead of the fundamentals & suddenly we start hearing commentaries of how the market is pricing in the earnings of FY 22 & 23 to justify the rally

If you r new to fundamentals, 👇 can help


Results for Q4 have come out very well but that is also because of the lower base effect of the last year.

Over the last many years, markets have corrected 10-15% each calendar year. Can it happen this year as well? Can very much and that can be a great entry point. Why? (4/n)


There are a lot of over hangs in the near term,
-Crude going up
-$ index moving up
-Inflation moving up
-COVID uncertainties
All of the above are –ve for markets & liquidity on the other side driving markets up, its impossible to judge the near term movement of the markets (5/n)

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॥ॐ॥
अस्य श्री गायत्री ध्यान श्लोक:
(gAyatri dhyAna shlOka)
• This shloka to meditate personified form of वेदमाता गायत्री was given by Bhagwaan Brahma to Sage yAgnavalkya (याज्ञवल्क्य).

• 14th shloka of गायत्री कवचम् which is taken from वशिष्ठ संहिता, goes as follows..


• मुक्ता-विद्रुम-हेम-नील धवलच्छायैर्मुखस्त्रीक्षणै:।
muktA vidruma hEma nIla dhavalachhAyaiH mukhaistrlkShaNaiH.

• युक्तामिन्दुकला-निबद्धमुकुटां तत्वार्थवर्णात्मिकाम्॥
yuktAmindukalA nibaddha makutAm tatvArtha varNAtmikam.

• गायत्रीं वरदाभयाङ्कुश कशां शुभ्रं कपालं गदाम्।
gAyatrIm vardAbhayANkusha kashAm shubhram kapAlam gadAm.

• शंखं चक्रमथारविन्दयुगलं हस्तैर्वहन्ती भजै॥
shankham chakramathArvinda yugalam hastairvahantIm bhajE.

This shloka describes the form of वेदमाता गायत्री.

• It says, "She has five faces which shine with the colours of a Pearl 'मुक्ता', Coral 'विद्रुम', Gold 'हेम्', Sapphire 'नील्', & a Diamond 'धवलम्'.

• These five faces are symbolic of the five primordial elements called पञ्चमहाभूत:' which makes up the entire existence.

• These are the elements of SPACE, FIRE, WIND, EARTH & WATER.

• All these five faces shine with three eyes 'त्रिक्षणै:'.