Seeing a lot of people making triangles with just 2-3 touchpoints offlate

An ideal triangle shall have at the minimum 5 touchpoints in order to give a good trending move post that

Here are few examples 👇

#HUL

Rejection from previous resistance at 2425

Rising wedge breakdown as well

Good chances for heading down towards 2106-2047 zone atleast in June series.

#AxisBank

Seems big move coming up 👀
Looks bullish here at 751
Can do 785/795 in June series and 841 by July series
Invalid below 725

#HindCopper
#EW

Looks like 4th wave correction coming to end

If holds support zone 100-114 , can rally higher towards 200 next in 5th wave

MACD and how I use it

---THREAD ON F&O BAN---

📛 What’s F&O Ban?
Stock goes into ban when combined Open Interest (OI) of both Future & Options contracts across series & across exchanges exceeds 95% of Market Wide Position Limit (MWPL)

Reason for stock going in ban is to curb EXCESSIVE SPECULATION

📛 What happens when stock goes into ‘FNO ban’?
-One CANNOT take Fresh positions
-But CAN square off existing position

📛 Can you trade?

Yes, you can take ‘INTRA-DAY’ position ONLY if your broker allows

But If intraday position ‘NOT CLOSED ‘

Then exchange levies PENALTY of 1% of value of increased position subject to minimum penalty of 5k & max of 1 lakh

📛 When stock is in ban can you reverse an existing position in a stock that is in FNO ban?

'YES'

Example

-If you are long on 2000 Call strike of RIL
-Can reverse with opposite position by selling 2000 Call strike

📛 When does the stock come out of ban?

-When OI falls below 80% of MWPL

Note: Exchange releases MWPL data for all F&O stocks monthly

Bull Market Rotation: We all have heard about bull market rotation over last few months. 

Let's see how it looks. Below is the comparative chart of IT (candlestick chart) vs Metals (blue line chart). Let's see how it has moved from March'20 bottom till now. 

(1/4)

1) March'20 to July'20: Both going up but IT clearly outperforming metals during the period.

2) July to Aug: IT consolidating, metals outperforming.

3) Aug to Oct: IT moving up, metals under retracement.

(2/4)

4) Oct to Nov: Tables turning again in favour of metals.

5) Nov to Jan: Both moving up, but IT outperforming.

6) Jan to May: Metals outperforming IT after some initial retracement in first few weeks of Jan. Since last week of Jan to May, it's been all metals.

(3/4)

7) May to July: IT again leading, with metals consolidating.

Let's see how it turns from here.

(4/4)

Understanding HIGH & LOW VIX

VIX at 16: If you check today's IV behaviour, they were not spiking much even with decent delta move in BNF. The movement was subtle, giving some time to adjust. So someone having good adjustment mechanism can stay in the game longer.

1/

VIX at 20: The same delta move will be more fierce, coupled with rise in premiums. When premiums rise with movement, then the adjustment cost increases exponentially. The premiums can fall back at EOD, but the damage is done if caught in the spike.

2/

After talking to few traders, their backtest result was in favor of high VIX of 2020, rather than 2017-19. The key flaw in the backtest were the adjustments which are not easy to calculate. Combination of high theta & fixed SL during high VIX, the IV crush is cashed at EOD.

3/

Neutral option sellers who don't adjust & have fixed SL on a static straddle will not be able to benefit highly in low VIX. The straddle which moves away from ATM will increase no matter what. But if we keep on rolling our strikes, then we get good realisation of theta.

4/

I have made majority of my profits in option selling when VIX was at 13-15, mostly just relying on my adjustments. Since 2020 with high VIX, adjustments stopped working because of increase in the frequency of delta + IV spike combos & so had to shift to directional trading.

5/