Oct 1, 2020 - Fulton CTY
"Mr. Gilstrap stated that he did not feel comfortable installing a last-minute software change, and did not want Fulton County staff to be responsible for installing it. He told us that he told Dominion to conduct this
More from Software
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms This paper gives documentation on software (with causal reasoning, assumptions reviewed in appendix) for a parametric approach to estimating either "total effects" or "controlled direct effects" with competing events and time-varying
@Iplaywithgerms Total effects capture paths by which treatment affects competing event (e.g. protective total effect of lifesaving treatment on dementia may be wholly/partially due to effect on survival). Controlled direct effects do not capture these paths
@Iplaywithgerms More detailed reasoning on the difference and tradeoffs between total and controlled direct effects and causal reasoning in the point treatment context provided here along with description of some estimators and
@Iplaywithgerms If you are familiar with more robust approaches like IPW or even better TMLE for time-varying treatment, these are trivially adapted to go after the controlled direct effect by simply treating competing events like loss to follow-up (censoring). e.g.
@Iplaywithgerms Examples of IPW estimation of the total effect of a time-varying treatment described in Appendix D of this paper:
https://t.co/RNhcgTBMkb
And here
https://t.co/rMWmwFBWwV
Others in reference lists of above papers.
@Iplaywithgerms Total effects capture paths by which treatment affects competing event (e.g. protective total effect of lifesaving treatment on dementia may be wholly/partially due to effect on survival). Controlled direct effects do not capture these paths
@Iplaywithgerms More detailed reasoning on the difference and tradeoffs between total and controlled direct effects and causal reasoning in the point treatment context provided here along with description of some estimators and
@Iplaywithgerms If you are familiar with more robust approaches like IPW or even better TMLE for time-varying treatment, these are trivially adapted to go after the controlled direct effect by simply treating competing events like loss to follow-up (censoring). e.g.
@Iplaywithgerms Examples of IPW estimation of the total effect of a time-varying treatment described in Appendix D of this paper:
https://t.co/RNhcgTBMkb
And here
https://t.co/rMWmwFBWwV
Others in reference lists of above papers.
forgive my indulgence but 2020's been a big year for @shmuplations, so here's a look back at everything that went up over the last twelve months—there's a lot of stuff I'm sure you all read & other things you'd be forgiven for missing, so let's recap (thread)
the year kicked off with shmuplations' first big video project: a subtitled translation of a 2016 NHK documentary on the 30th anniversary of Dragon Quest which features interviews with Yuji Horii, Koichi Nakamura, Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama https://t.co/JCWA15RTlx
following DQ30 was one of the most popular articles of the year: an assortment of interviews with composers Yuzo Koshiro and Motohiro Kawashima concerning the music of Streets of Rage 1, 2 & 3 https://t.co/QUtyC9W12Z their comments on SoR3 in particular were full of gems
Game Designers: The Next Generation profiled six potential successors to the likes of Shigeru Miyamoto & Hironobu Sakaguchi, some of who you may recognise: Kazuma Kaneko, Takeshi Miyaji (1966-2011), Noboru Harada, Kan Naitou, Takashi Tokita & Ryoji Amano https://t.co/lWZU3PLvwX
from the 2010 Akumajou Dracula Best Music Collections Box, a subbed video feature on long-time Castlevania composer Michiru Yamane https://t.co/NMJe4ROozR sadly, Chiruru has since passed; Yamane wrote these albums in his honor
https://t.co/orlgPTDsKK
https://t.co/QnQl8KI9IX
the year kicked off with shmuplations' first big video project: a subtitled translation of a 2016 NHK documentary on the 30th anniversary of Dragon Quest which features interviews with Yuji Horii, Koichi Nakamura, Akira Toriyama, and Koichi Sugiyama https://t.co/JCWA15RTlx

following DQ30 was one of the most popular articles of the year: an assortment of interviews with composers Yuzo Koshiro and Motohiro Kawashima concerning the music of Streets of Rage 1, 2 & 3 https://t.co/QUtyC9W12Z their comments on SoR3 in particular were full of gems

Game Designers: The Next Generation profiled six potential successors to the likes of Shigeru Miyamoto & Hironobu Sakaguchi, some of who you may recognise: Kazuma Kaneko, Takeshi Miyaji (1966-2011), Noboru Harada, Kan Naitou, Takashi Tokita & Ryoji Amano https://t.co/lWZU3PLvwX

from the 2010 Akumajou Dracula Best Music Collections Box, a subbed video feature on long-time Castlevania composer Michiru Yamane https://t.co/NMJe4ROozR sadly, Chiruru has since passed; Yamane wrote these albums in his honor
https://t.co/orlgPTDsKK
https://t.co/QnQl8KI9IX

Developer productivity, y'all. It is a three TRILLION dollar opportunity, per the stripe report.
Eng managers and directors, we have got to stop asking for "more headcount" and start treating this like the systems problem that it is. https://t.co/XJ0CkFdgiO
If you are getting barely more than 50% productivity out of your very expensive engineers, I can pretty much guarantee you cannot hire your way out of this resourcing issue. 😐
(the stripe report is here:
Say you've got a strategic initiative that 3 engineers to build and support it. Well, they're going to be swimming in the same muddy pipeline as everyone else at ~50%, so you're actually gotta source, hire and train 6, er make that 7 (gonna need another manager too now)...
...which actually understates the problem, because each person you add also adds friction and overhead to the system. Communication, coordination all get harder and processes get more complex and elaborate, etc.
So we could hire 7 people, or we could patch up our sociotechnical system to lose say only 25% productivity to tech debt, instead of 42%? 🤔
By my calculations, that would reclaim 3 engineers worth of capacity given a team of just 17-18 people.
Eng managers and directors, we have got to stop asking for "more headcount" and start treating this like the systems problem that it is. https://t.co/XJ0CkFdgiO

When people often have to spend weeks just to get a local development environment up, there is a lot to improve. \U0001f641
— Daniel Schildt (@autiomaa) December 20, 2020
If you are getting barely more than 50% productivity out of your very expensive engineers, I can pretty much guarantee you cannot hire your way out of this resourcing issue. 😐
(the stripe report is here:
Say you've got a strategic initiative that 3 engineers to build and support it. Well, they're going to be swimming in the same muddy pipeline as everyone else at ~50%, so you're actually gotta source, hire and train 6, er make that 7 (gonna need another manager too now)...
...which actually understates the problem, because each person you add also adds friction and overhead to the system. Communication, coordination all get harder and processes get more complex and elaborate, etc.
So we could hire 7 people, or we could patch up our sociotechnical system to lose say only 25% productivity to tech debt, instead of 42%? 🤔
By my calculations, that would reclaim 3 engineers worth of capacity given a team of just 17-18 people.