@Iplaywithgerms This paper gives documentation on software (with causal reasoning, assumptions reviewed in appendix) for a parametric approach to estimating either "total effects" or "controlled direct effects" with competing events and time-varying
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
https://t.co/kew3HltAev
https://t.co/RNhcgTBMkb
And here
https://t.co/rMWmwFBWwV
Others in reference lists of above papers.
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
even when treatment is time-fixed, hazard ratios (whether cause-specific or subdistribution) do not quantify causal effects (even when counterfactual contrasts) except in special circumstances that will not hold in most studies
https://t.co/35OJDe8dD6
https://t.co/O08FNqPWWb
https://t.co/wKCrItvNhT
More from Software
Eng managers and directors, we have got to stop asking for "more headcount" and start treating this like the systems problem that it is. https://t.co/XJ0CkFdgiO

When people often have to spend weeks just to get a local development environment up, there is a lot to improve. \U0001f641
— Daniel Schildt (@autiomaa) December 20, 2020
If you are getting barely more than 50% productivity out of your very expensive engineers, I can pretty much guarantee you cannot hire your way out of this resourcing issue. 😐
(the stripe report is here:
Say you've got a strategic initiative that 3 engineers to build and support it. Well, they're going to be swimming in the same muddy pipeline as everyone else at ~50%, so you're actually gotta source, hire and train 6, er make that 7 (gonna need another manager too now)...
...which actually understates the problem, because each person you add also adds friction and overhead to the system. Communication, coordination all get harder and processes get more complex and elaborate, etc.
So we could hire 7 people, or we could patch up our sociotechnical system to lose say only 25% productivity to tech debt, instead of 42%? 🤔
By my calculations, that would reclaim 3 engineers worth of capacity given a team of just 17-18 people.
Here are some Google Chrome extensions that can make you better in 2021. 🔥🍀
(Thread) 🧵👇
1. https://t.co/zGir5E5U0J: https://t.co/PVx1wlX0Se is the easiest way to stay updated on the latest programming news. Get the hottest dev news from the best tech blogs on any topic you can think of.
2. CSS Peeper: CSS Peeper is a CSS viewer tailored for Designers. Get access to useful styles with our Chrome extension. Its mission is to let Designers focus on design, and spend as little time as possible digging in a
3. UX Check: UX Check makes heuristic evaluations quick and easy. The extension will open up Nielsen's Ten Heuristics in a side pane next to your website.
4. Checkbot: Checkbot finds critical SEO, speed & security problems before your website visitors do
Tests 100s of pages at once for broken links, duplicate titles, invalid HTML, insecure pages, and 50+ other
The Great Software\xa0Stagnation https://t.co/A6peSPERaU
— Jonathan Edwards (@jonathoda) January 1, 2021
Progress in CS comes from discovering ever more abstract and expressive languages to tell the computer to do something. But replacing "tell the computer to do something in language" with "do it yourself using these gestures" halts that progress. \2
Stagnation started in the 1970s after the first GUIs were invented. Every genre of software that gives users a "friendly" GUI interface, effectively freezes progress at that level of abstraction / expressivity. Because we can never abandon old direct manipulation metaphors \3
The 1990s were simply the point when most people in the world finally got access to a personal computer with a GUI. So that's where we see most of the ideas frozen. \4
It's no surprise that the improvements @jonathoda cites, that are still taking place are improvements in textual representation : \5
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