@Iplaywithgerms This paper gives documentation on software (with causal reasoning, assumptions reviewed in appendix) for a parametric approach to estimating either "total effects" or "controlled direct effects" with competing events and time-varying

@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms Total effects capture paths by which treatment affects competing event (e.g. protective total effect of lifesaving treatment on dementia may be wholly/partially due to effect on survival). Controlled direct effects do not capture these paths
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms More detailed reasoning on the difference and tradeoffs between total and controlled direct effects and causal reasoning in the point treatment context provided here along with description of some estimators and code.
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms If you are familiar with more robust approaches like IPW or even better TMLE for time-varying treatment, these are trivially adapted to go after the controlled direct effect by simply treating competing events like loss to follow-up (censoring). e.g. see
https://t.co/kew3HltAev
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms Examples of IPW estimation of the total effect of a time-varying treatment described in Appendix D of this paper:
https://t.co/RNhcgTBMkb
And here
https://t.co/rMWmwFBWwV
Others in reference lists of above papers.
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms As discussed here
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
even when treatment is time-fixed, hazard ratios (whether cause-specific or subdistribution) do not quantify causal effects (even when counterfactual contrasts) except in special circumstances that will not hold in most studies
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms These circumstances can fail even when the study is a perfectly executed trial (no loss to follow-up, perfect adherence to the treatment assignment) and even when the treatment does not affect the competing event.
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms More recent work on the separable effects provides notions of mechanism in this setting that, unlike controlled direct effects (effects under eliminating competing events), have real-world, clinical relevance. This does not accommodate t-v treatments (yet, in the works).
@JuliaLMarcus @Iplaywithgerms Here are some papers on the separable effects for point treatments (Epidemiology commentary forthcoming focused on fertility trials that is less technical):
https://t.co/35OJDe8dD6
https://t.co/O08FNqPWWb
https://t.co/wKCrItvNhT

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Developer productivity, y'all. It is a three TRILLION dollar opportunity, per the stripe report.

Eng managers and directors, we have got to stop asking for "more headcount" and start treating this like the systems problem that it is. https://t.co/XJ0CkFdgiO


If you are getting barely more than 50% productivity out of your very expensive engineers, I can pretty much guarantee you cannot hire your way out of this resourcing issue. 😐

(the stripe report is here:

Say you've got a strategic initiative that 3 engineers to build and support it. Well, they're going to be swimming in the same muddy pipeline as everyone else at ~50%, so you're actually gotta source, hire and train 6, er make that 7 (gonna need another manager too now)...

...which actually understates the problem, because each person you add also adds friction and overhead to the system. Communication, coordination all get harder and processes get more complex and elaborate, etc.

So we could hire 7 people, or we could patch up our sociotechnical system to lose say only 25% productivity to tech debt, instead of 42%? 🤔

By my calculations, that would reclaim 3 engineers worth of capacity given a team of just 17-18 people.
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The Great Software Stagnation is real, but we have to understand it to fight it. The CAUSE of the TGSS is not "teh interwebs". The cause is the "direct manipulation" paradigm : the "worst idea in computer science" \1


Progress in CS comes from discovering ever more abstract and expressive languages to tell the computer to do something. But replacing "tell the computer to do something in language" with "do it yourself using these gestures" halts that progress. \2

Stagnation started in the 1970s after the first GUIs were invented. Every genre of software that gives users a "friendly" GUI interface, effectively freezes progress at that level of abstraction / expressivity. Because we can never abandon old direct manipulation metaphors \3

The 1990s were simply the point when most people in the world finally got access to a personal computer with a GUI. So that's where we see most of the ideas frozen. \4

It's no surprise that the improvements @jonathoda cites, that are still taking place are improvements in textual representation : \5

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