THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/

We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/
https://t.co/ND85PXV9MB
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
For every major resource that we as humanity rely on, we are in overshoot. This means unless we make radical, major changes to our way of life (PIVOT) society risks collapse as the overshoot catches us up. Lett me ask you fellow citizens - is there anything unclear here? 6/
Right! Citizens understand the need to address overshoot the next thing is what do we demand be done about it? We COULD not demand anything - and watch ours and coming generations deal with more and more early death. A real option taken by many civilisations before us 7/
There ARE examples of where citizens have handled overshoot, but only in circumstances where groups of them have looked after a common piece of land or seawater. Thomas Princen's book has examples. 8/ https://t.co/yRpDZnDWvV
We let it happen or we enter a process where we as citizens deliberate. What are we willing to give up in order to open up to get something better for us and coming generations? Then we need to act. That is Pivot. 9/9 https://t.co/DV8mu5BBlg

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@danielashby @AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd I'll bite. Let's try to keep it factual. There's a reasonable basis to some aspects of this question, that it might be possible to agree on. Then there are other, more variable, elements which depend on external factors such as transport and energy policy. /1

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd First up, we know reasonably well how much energy it takes to propel a high-speed train along the HS2 route. We can translate that into effective CO2 generated by making some assumptions about how green the electricity grid is. /2

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Secondly, we have a reasonable grasp of how much CO2 is going to be generated by building HS2 - there are standard methods of working this out, based on the amount of steel, concrete, earthmoving, machine-fuelling etc required. /3

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd Thirdly, we can estimate how much CO2 is generated by cutting down trees, and how much is captured by planting new trees. We can also estimate how much CO2 is needed to keep the railway running and generated by maintaining the track /4

@AdamWJT @Greens4HS2 @TheGreenParty @GarethDennis @XRebellionUK @Hs2RebelRebel @HS2ltd We know how much CO2 is saved by moving goods by freight train on the lines freed up by moving the express trains on to HS2, rather than by truck. /5

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