BC SOCIETY
Saved by @SteveeRogerr

A few weeks ago @ClareCraigPath, @RealJoelSmalley and I wrote a short piece on endemic Covid, and what it might look like.

It seems particularly relevant to current

 Consider the possibility that all our naso-pharynxes together make up a single ecosystem, in which only one predator can be completely dominant.

We are not saying that this has definitely happened with Covid - but it would explain the disappearance of flu this year.
Every winter, we see "excess deaths" in the sense that more (mainly elderly) people die in the winter than in the summer.

This is a worldwide phenomenon.
It is now thought that all or nearly all of the extra deaths in Winter are due to infection with winter respiratory viruses, mainly influenza:

https://t.co/xOHDcSRgGB
However, we do not - and never have - extensively tested for the presence of such viruses in the critically ill elderly population, so we really have no idea how frequently infection is present, or in fact what its contribution to death is.
In 2017, researchers at 2 morgues in Spain swab-tested a series of recently deceased elderly individuals and found respiratory viruses in 47% of them. In only 15% of these had a diagnosis been made prior to death.

https://t.co/PBUnIfLtaf
The death certificates for all these individuals featured the usual wide range of pathologies that would be expected in this age group, but viruses were detected (post-mortem) across all categories of causes of death.
For this cohort - presumably representative of similar cohorts of subjects across Europe - what would the mortality picture have looked like had we applied a policy of recording the detected respiratory virus as the cause of death, irrespective of other pathologies?
That is, in effect, what we might be doing now, to some extent - Covid taking the place of other viruses (particularly influenza).

In other words, might some of the Covid deaths we are now seeing be those that would have sadly died in a normal winter anyway?
As is usually the case, the picture is more complex and there are probably a number of other factors contributing to the current mortality picture.
Firstly, there will of course be some additional "pure Covid" deaths as the virus moves into its endemic rather than pandemic stage.

This was seen in the year following the Swine flu pandemic:

https://t.co/uIB5lF7CKU
Secondly, there is increasing evidence of deaths being caused by nearly a year of restricted access to healthcare.

In fact, given the nation's state of health and presence of multiple diseases, it would be more surprising if there was no such effect.
That attendances at A&E departments making up the Syndromic Surveillance System (currently covering 82 hospitals in England) are running below the same period last year is consistent with this:
Ambulance calls for cardiac/respiratory arrest calls are high, yet calls for chest pain appear to be lower than average.

This is worryingly consistent with a picture of reluctance to seek help in time.
This would be highly unlikely to result in no excess deaths.

The numbers involved are not small, the arrest calls appear to be ~50-75 more than expected (daily), but chest pain calls ~250 per day fewer than expected.
Surprisingly, attendances for acute respiratory infections are well below average for the entire Autumn and Winter so far; although rising recently they are still below average.

This is consistent with the point made above - ie could Covid be replacing flu this year?
Some have previously claimed that this category does not include Covid, but the notes in the report seem quite clear that it does.
Finally, it must be acknowledged that the emergence of Covid is currently causing significant strain on our NHS, although it is worthwhile acknowledging that several reasons must contribute to this.
Firstly, it appears that treating Covid patients is more complex and onerous than treating those who would previously have been patients with a variety of other
- mainly undiagnosed - respiratory viruses.
Secondly, the reduction in beds available for a growing and ageing population is a major problem; they fell from 240,000 in 2000 to under 165,000 in 2019.

The figure fell by a further 10,000 beds to allow for social distancing between patients in hospital.
The need to segregate suspected Covid from confirmed Covid and non-Covid patients has a detrimental effect of bed management, as does the need for smaller bay sizes to accommodate distancing.

A&E departments can easily become clogged up by delays in finding beds for patients.
In some hospitals patients are not being discharged until their Covid test returns as negative.

Clearly returning patients to care homes during the window of infectivity would be a bad idea.

Beyond that this policy is surely inadvisable.
It should be recalled that some patients continue to test PCR positive for weeks or even months after infection, as experienced by the unfortunate British students stuck in Italy last summer:

https://t.co/qaIsjDD5Mm
PCR testing has led to a staffing crisis, as asymptomatic staff - even those who must be immune through known prior exposure - are made to self-isolate for two weeks.

50,000 NHS staff are absent for Covid reasons, out of 100,000 total absences.

https://t.co/qgpc00Otie
Finally, it should be acknowledged that staff are having to work in PPE and change it frequently, adding a significant additional burden to an already heavy workload.

More from Society

Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

Educating local kids is good for the nation, but doesn't help a region much.

The way a university helps a region is through

4/Undergraduates usually leave town after graduation.

But university RESEARCH pulls in OTHER smart people from other regions, and they stay there.

Here's a paper showing that this is the main way universities increase a region's human capital:

5/Research also pulls in business investment.

Companies want to partner with university labs, so they can commercialize the technologies the labs produce. So they invest in the labs, and sometimes they even put their offices in the town.
SOCIETY
XVIII Airborne Corps\U0001f409
XVIII Airborne Corps🐉...
@18airbornecorps
1 of 16: WE ARE ALL JEWS HERE: THE STORY OF RODDIE EDMONDS

One of the most moving and relevant stories of the Battle of the Bulge, or any American Soldier in any war, is that of Master Sergeant Roddie Edmonds, a Knoxville, Tennessee native, who served with the 106th Infantry.


2 of 16:

Roddie was captured early on in the Battle of the Bulge, on December 19th, when Panzer forces plowed through his unit.

He, along with almost his entire regiment, was forced to surrender.


3 of 16:

The men were transported to the Stalag IX-A POW camp in Ziegenhain, Germany.

Roddie was the senior enlisted American Soldier at the site. As such, he was the conduit between all American Soldiers and their German captors.


4 of 16:

In late January, the camp’s commandant, Major Siegmann [pictured here], ordered Roddie, a Christian, to identify all Jewish Soldiers and order them to stand in formation by themselves the next day.

[Jewish Soldiers were a minority within American units]


5 of 16:

Throughout WWII, captured Jewish Soldiers were often tortured and then killed by their German captors.

In fact, Jewish Soldiers had been told to bury their dog tags before capture. The dog tag identified Jews with the letter “H” for Hebrew.
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Caroline - Real Feminists XX \U0001f1ff\U0001f1e6
Caroline - Real Femini...
@radicalhag
I think the UK trans debate has teased out the sticking points for feminists, and it might be useful to lay them out given that the battle in the US, with a very different legislative environment, is just starting.

The GRA of 2004 gave trans people the ability to change legal sex via a GRC, but only if they had a psychiatric diagnosis of dysphoria and only after having lived in role for 2 years. The spousal veto gave spouses a chance to annul or obtain a favourable divorce.

While this ultimately created the loophole in women's rights that we've been fighting against in the last few years, it catered for a tiny number of dysphoric transsexuals and so did not have an enormous impact.

Discussions with trans friends and allies make it clear that, although surgery wasn't a requirement for a GRC, the diagnostic procedures were expected to trap and exclude males who did not want surgery, thereby preventing fetishists and opportunists from exploiting a GRC.

The Equality Act of 2010 defined the various protected characteristics, including both sex and 'gender reassignment', and provided for sex-based exemptions, under the auspices of which it is legal to exclude trans people from some single-sex spaces and services.
SOCIETY
Austin Energy
Austin Energy
@austinenergy
WATCH LIVE: The City of Austin to address the ongoing severe weather and its impact on Austin and Travis County residents, utilities, and service. Follow this thread for live

City Manager Spencer Cronk: This storm is stressing our entire community in ways we can never imagine. We are so sorry for the continued hardships so many in our community have had to endure the past several days. We are getting resources that can help you.

Palmer Events Center is full.
However, there is still limited room available at:
•Del Valle High School, 5201 Ross Road, Del Valle, TX 78617 
•Mendez Middle School, 5106 Village Square, 78744
•Reilly Elementary School, 405 Denson

Cronk: @AustinISD has warming centers. Place for people to warm up and charge essential medical Open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.
•Lee ES - CENTRAL 3308 Hampton Road
•Murchison MS -  3700 N. Hills Drive
•Joslin ES – 4500 Menchaca Road
•Barrington ES – 400 Cooper Dr,

Austin Water Director Greg Meszaros: We're sorry for the hardships people are experiencing. we never imagined a day hospitals wouldn't have water, large customer base wouldn't have water. We're committed to restoring our system as safely and rapidly as we can.
SOCIETY
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
We finally have the U.S. Citizenship Act Bill Text! I'm going to go through some portions of the bill right now and highlight some of the major changes and improvements that it would make to our immigration system.

Thread:


First the Bill makes a series of promises changes to the way we talk about immigrants and immigration law.

Gone would be the term "alien" and in its place is "noncitizen."

Also gone would be the term "alienage," replaced with "noncitizenship."


Now we get to the "earned path to citizenship" for all undocumented immigrants present in the United States on January 1, 2021.

Under this bill, anyone who satisfies the eligibility criteria for a new "lawful prospective immigrant status" can come out of the shadows.


So, what are the eligibility criteria for becoming a "lawful prospective immigrant status"? Those are in a new INA 245G and include:

- Payment of the appropriate fees
- Continuous presence after January 1, 2021
- Not having certain criminal record (but there's a waiver)


After a person has been in "lawful prospective immigrant status" for at least 5 years, they can apply for a green card, so long as they still pass background checks and have paid back any taxes they are required to do so by law.

However! Some groups don't have to wait 5 years.
SOCIETY , IMMIGRATION

You May Also Like

Pulp Librarian
Pulp Librarian
@PulpLibrarian
Due to the pandemic you may not have visited your local library in a while. So come with me on a virtual library tour, courtesy of stock photography, to see what we do for a living...


Libraries are of course information resource centres, but in many ways they are so much more. To get the best out of them you need to really know your way around the stacks.


The enquiries desk is normally your first stop in a library, and this is where you will meet The Angry Librarian! Why is she angry? Because you keep asking her stupid questions!


"Are you open?"
"Do you have a toilet?"
"That chair's wobbly!"
"Why isn't it available in audiobook?"
"Someone else is on the computer and that's not fair!"

On and on it goes...


And that's why in the library we insist on silence. It's the only way to stop us swearing at all the idiotic things you ask us. And we've looked up a lot of old swear words: beardsplitter, bescumber, rantallion, smellfungus etc. We're such muckspouts...
ALL
Matt Fuller
Matt Fuller
@MEPFuller
They’re shooting into the chamber.
POLITICS
Advertisement
Anu Satheesh
Anu Satheesh
@AnuSatheesh5
Dhanwanthari Temple, Nelluvai
Thrissur District, Kerala.🚩🚩

ॐ नमो भगवते वासुदेवाय धन्वन्तरये अमृतकलश हस्ताय
सर्वामय विनाशनाय त्रैलोक्यनाथाय श्री महाविष्णवे नमः
#temples

Dhanwanthary Moorthy temple in Nelluvai is one among the ancient temples in Kerala.


Dhanwanthari is the Deva of Ayurveda. It is said that the murthy at the temple was installed by Ashwani Devas and it was the same idol worshipped by Sri. Vasudevar in the Dwapara Yuga. The Dhanvanthari Moorthi is facing towards the west
@SriramKannan77


Smrata-Matrarti-Nasanah', Srimad Bhagavatam states that the one who remembers the name of Dhanwantari will be cured and protected from all the diseases. Temple is known for its Oushada Prasada with Ayuvedic medicinal values, called Mukkudi.


Mukkudi Nivedyam is a very special offering to Dhanwantari. It is prepared by using dry ginger, pepper, pomegranate peel, cumin seed, turmeric, rock salt and other medicinal items. It is offered during 'Usha- Pooja', and is later on distributed to the devotees present there.
ALL
Engineer Who
Engineer Who
@Engr_Who
A long but must read thread. Udaybhan Rathore and myth making in Maratha history: An analysis. This is the thread on Udaybhan Rathore, who he was and how over the time period, his life was portrayed in maratha chronicles and pseudo history. (1/n)

Udaybhan rathore was the head of Bhinai thikana (84 villages) in Ajmer. He was the direct descendant of the famous Rao Chandrasen, Raja of Marwar (4th generation) who resisted Akbar all his life and never made any alliance with mughals like Maharana Pratap. (2/n)

Later in 1783, Maharaja of Jodhpur gave title of Raja to Bhinai family for their military service. Bhinai family and their direct descendant Raja Sh Mayuraj Singh still lives in Ajmer. Anyway coming to Udaybhan Rathore and story of Tanaji. (3/n)

Jai Singh's march on Shivaji and treaty of Purandar (1665) is a well known episode to repeat here. After getting the hill forts from Shivaji under the treaty, Jai Singh didn't have enough man-power to man every one of the small forts because of his next (4/n)

campaign against Bijapur. Jai Singh personally took over a couple of important forts like Kondhana (Sinhgarh), Purandar etc. Others were given to some mughals or their fortification walls destroyed. Jai Singh died in 1667 near Burhanpur while enroute to the north. (5/n)
INDIA
Kanekoa
Kanekoa
@KanekoaTheGreat
*The Evidence Collection*

There is overwhelming evidence of election fraud. Therefore it is the duty of the Executive, Legislative, & Judicial branches to throw out the fraudulent votes & to honor their oath to protect & defend the Constitution of the USA.🇺🇸🦅

A list below.🔻


1/ Navarro Report: The Immaculate Deception - Six Key Dimensions of Election Irregularities -

2/ Analysis of 3,000 U.S. counties shows Joe Biden received 5.6 % more votes in counties using Dominion Voting Systems (Video) -

3/ Antrim Michigan Dominion Voting Systems Forensics Report -

4/ Evidence Grows: ’20 Election Was Rigged -
POLITICS , ALL