⭐️ What We Learned ⭐️

1: 2020, a thread. Like everyone, B4B faced countless curve-balls in 2020. Here are some things we learned, that helped us increase our influence in the toughest year we have lived through /

2: Act quickly: As Covid fears grew, we had a contingency plan ready by March 2, long before lockdown was a threat. By March 12, work from home was a thing, and on March 15 we closed the office completely /
3: Put the team first: In a crisis, you need the team more than ever. We got our staff from overseas back home early, trialled work-from-home early, put health (inc mental health) and working policies in place early, so everyone was clear what was happening /
4: Use the tech. Our team was already using Zoom, Slack and various other tools but they really came into their own to do the heavy lifting of working remotely, before the Covid nervousness became a full-blown crisis /
5: Keep the team vibe: Daily team Zooms – a huddle to get things going in the morning, an update in the afternoon, & always a willingness to use some of the time for social chit-chat & the small-talk that we take for granted in an office. /
6: Don’t wait for the Govt to act: a) Because, you know, sloooowness b) You’ll find yourself in a mad rush with everyone else in the Last Minute Lounge /
7: Spot the opportunities: With Westminster bars and coffee shops shuttered, everyone was trying to find a ‘new normal’. We worked hard to become part of that new normal /
8: Look out for each other: It’s good to talk, as they say. And, when it’s your turn to struggle a little, work should ease the pressure, not ramp it up /
9: Have a support network: If you work by yourself anyway, all of the above applies, but of course you‘ll need to have an external support network – FB groups, regular work contacts, whatever it takes not to disappear into a communications hole /
10: Biscuits: They’re the answer to so many problems /ends

More from Society

I've seen many news articles cite that "the UK variant could be the dominant strain by March". This is emphasized by @CDCDirector.

While this will likely to be the case, this should not be an automatic cause for concern. Cases could still remain contained.

Here's how: 🧵

One of @CDCgov's own models has tracked the true decline in cases quite accurately thus far.

Their projection shows that the B.1.1.7 variant will become the dominant variant in March. But interestingly... there's no fourth wave. Cases simply level out:

https://t.co/tDce0MwO61


Just because a variant becomes the dominant strain does not automatically mean we will see a repeat of Fall 2020.

Let's look at UK and South Africa, where cases have been falling for the past month, in unison with the US (albeit with tougher restrictions):


Furthermore, the claim that the "variant is doubling every 10 days" is false. It's the *proportion of the variant* that is doubling every 10 days.

If overall prevalence drops during the studied time period, the true doubling time of the variant is actually much longer 10 days.

Simple example:

Day 0: 10 variant / 100 cases -> 10% variant
Day 10: 15 variant / 75 cases -> 20% variant
Day 20: 20 variant / 50 cases -> 40% variant

1) Proportion of variant doubles every 10 days
2) Doubling time of variant is actually 20 days
3) Total cases still drop by 50%

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