1/Lots of tech companies and workers are making noises about leaving San Francisco, LA, NYC, and other "superstar" cities.

Some are predicting a shift to remote work and distributed companies.

Let's take a hard look at what that would actually

2/We're all familiar with the trend of tech companies and other knowledge industries (finance, biotech, etc.) piling into a few tech hubs, raising rents and house prices.

Now some think the advent of Zoom, Slack, etc. might reverse this trend.

https://t.co/nQVCJrKvrB
3/But escaping the superstar cities is going to be tough.

The forces keeping tech companies in places like SF are so strong that these regions have essentially become prisons for these companies.
4/In order to escape the prison of the superstar cities, tech companies and other knowledge industries will have to overcome the Four Jailers of Industrial Clustering:

1. In-person office productivity

2. Thick market effects

3. Knowledge spillovers

4. City life amenities
5/I'm actually pretty optimistic that companies can find ways to make remote work productive.

Studies show that working from home *some* of the time actually tends to raise productivity.

https://t.co/HK9DW99qAl
6/Does that mean people can work productively away from the office ALL of the time?

It's not clear yet. But remember, in order to shift out of top cities, tech companies only need to shift PART of their workforce to 100% remote.

That seems very doable.
7/Then there's the "thick market" effect.

Lose your engineering job in SF, and it's easy to find another nearby.

Lose your engineering job in Tulsa and you're in trouble.

Same goes for companies who need to find new employees.
8/To beat the thick market effect, companies and workers will need to learn to do 100% remote job search and hiring. They'll need to get comfortable working closely with people they've never been in a room with.

That seems like a difficult but doable shift.
9/VCs will also have to get used to investing in companies remotely.

In fact, this was a shift that needed to happen long ago, because VCs' cultural preference for in-person investing means that a lot of cities unfairly lose out.
10/But remote work, hiring, job search, and investing are all things that are possible as technology improves.

Companies will look for solutions, and they will find solutions.

But a harder challenge will be replacing the good things about cities that companies DON'T generate.
11/One of those good effects of cities is knowledge spillovers.

Many economists believe that when knowledge workers (like engineers) live in close proximity, they exchange ideas that boost their productivity.

https://t.co/hROA2pMOsw
12/No one company is responsible for knowledge spillovers. They happen outside the company.

So companies can't really replace this benefit of cities.

Maybe the internet will naturally replace knowledge spillovers. Maybe Stack Overflow is all we really need.

...Maybe??
13/Maybe universities, or industry associations, or other actors can try to recreate virtual spaces where engineers can mix, mingle, and share ideas? Just spitballing here.

Anyway, this going to be a taller order than switching companies over to Zoom/Slack.
14/Now we come to the fourth benefit of cities, and the most difficult to replace.

Cities are great places to meet people and do fun stuff.
15/Here's an important but subtle point:

If distributed remote work means that tech workers just move to DIFFERENT SUPERSTAR CITIES, you haven't really changed anything!
16/To really distribute the workforce, you need more than for San Franciscans to work in Tokyo and New Yorkers to work in LA.

You need to get knowledge workers to work in Tulsa, Oklahoma and Cleveland, Ohio.
17/One function of cities -- dating -- actually seems somewhat easy to replace, since it's basically just a 1-to-1 matching process.

But social discovery -- meeting whole groups of friends online -- is a problem that no social media company seems to have solved yet.
18/And restaurants will be even harder. I can't even think of how cities like Tulsa will be able to achieve the variety and quality of dining options of cities like Los Angeles.

Maybe there is a way, but it'll take some creative supply chaining and matching!!
19/Anyway, so there you have it. To escape the prison that cities like San Francisco have become, knowledge industries will need to UNBUNDLE THE CITY completely, for the first time in human history.

It's a tall order. We'll see if they can do it!

(end)

https://t.co/3XYIftJAHd
20/Oh and if you like stuff like this, make sure to sign up for my free email list, so you can get my newsletter delivered directly to your inbox! :-)

https://t.co/FGppA1M8W6

More from Noah Smith 🐇

1/I'm thinking about the end of Apu in the context of the national debates on immigration and diversity.


2/Apu's presence in Springfield represented a basic reality of America in the late 20th and early 21st century: the presence of nonwhite immigrants.

3/As Tomas Jimenez writes in "The Other Side of Assimilation", for my generation, immigrants from India, China, Mexico, and many other countries aren't strange or foreign. On the contrary, they're a

4/But that America I grew up with is fundamentally ephemeral. The kids of immigrants don't retain their parents' culture. They merge into the local culture (and, as Jimenez documents, the local culture changes to reflect their influence).

5/Simpsons character don't change. But real people, and real communities, do. So a character who once represented the diversity that immigrants brought to American towns now represents a stereotype of Indian-Americans as "permanent foreigners".
Time for panel #3: Big Tech and regulation!

I will be live-tweeting again, and you can also watch video at either the Twitter or Facebook links below!


Kaissar: Every industry gets regulated when it gets big. The question is what kind of regulation Big Tech will get,and whether the companies will be proactive in shaping it.

Kaissar: More profitable companies have higher returns. Why? Maybe it's a risk factor, because more profit = higher risk of getting regulated.

Bershidskyis showing a diagram of GDPR complaince pop-ups. What a massive ill-conceived bureaucratic mess.

Ritholtz: It's 2018 and we're still talking about Facebook privacy settings?! If you're still giving your personal data to Facebook, you just don't care about privacy!

More from Society

The UN just voted to condemn Israel 9 times, and the rest of the world 0.

View the resolutions and voting results here:

The resolution titled "The occupied Syrian Golan," which condemns Israel for "repressive measures" against Syrian citizens in the Golan Heights, was adopted by a vote of 151 - 2 - 14.

Israel and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/HoO7oz0dwr


The resolution titled "Israeli practices affecting the human rights of the Palestinian people..." was adopted by a vote of 153 - 6 - 9.

Australia, Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No' https://t.co/1Ntpi7Vqab


The resolution titled "Israeli settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, and the occupied Syrian Golan" was adopted by a vote of 153 – 5 – 10.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/REumYgyRuF


The resolution titled "Applicability of the Geneva Convention... to the
Occupied Palestinian Territory..." was adopted by a vote of 154 - 5 - 8.

Canada, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and the U.S. voted 'No'
https://t.co/xDAeS9K1kW

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1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.

Please add your own.

2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you


3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.

“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”

“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”

4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:

“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”

“What’s end-game here?”

“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”

5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:

“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Still wondering about this 🤔


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