🚀

If you find megatrends early, it could be highly rewarding...

If you want to refresh powerful concepts of Chemical Sector...

This is must watch for you...

One of the most in-depth analysis on the sector you will ever see..!!

#investing

@Sanjay__Bakshi @iancassel Thanks Sir for amazing insights as always.

To fight some of these "bad demons" I keep doing experiments like averaging up..

Also, during feeling of high PE or market overvaluation, I try not to take profit, but trail exit and give room of 20-35% drawdown to excellent businesses

@iancassel Also, I am experimenting few indicators which will help me re-enter known great business again (even if I exited at lower price) and help remove price anchoring in objective way..

Let's see how it pans out..

But yes... ultimately anyhow we need to conquer these demons 😀

Mega thread on how the India’s Largest Telecom Operator – Reliance Jio (~35% market share) came into existence & became India’s Largest Mobile Broadband in less than 2 years.

Crazy story...no less than revolution..

Please retweet and comment below if you got blown away..

(1/n)

1 >> It was year 2011...year of spark

"The idea of Jio was first seeded by Ambani’s daughter, Isha, in 2011. She was a student at Yale (in the US) and was home for holidays. She wanted to submit some coursework and she said, 'Dad, the internet in our house sucks'," he recalled.

2) There was opportunity...

What was that?

That big thing...that will change India forever...for good..

Ambani said - Akash, at that time, stated that in the old world, telecom was the voice and people made money on calls but in the new world everything is DIGITAL...!!

3) That was it - DIGITAL

One simple but powerful idea..high speed internet is future

After the conversation, he researched more about it & found out that India was suffering from poor connectivity of data & prices were high which was not affordable to majority of Indians.

4) But it was not easy...

Dream was BIG...but it was game-changer...

After years of planning & research, Jio was finally launched on 5th September, 2016.

There was lot of competition...but Winning is their DNA..

Biggest mistake many investors make in highly cyclical sectors like steel, sugar, metals etc.

is that...during upcycle they assume earnings to be structural and get swayed away by optically low valuation thinking it as value buy..

Result... averaging down during fall n disaster

✈️🚀

What is that 1 company that you see awesome growth for atleast next 5 years?

Comment below...

#investing

Do you know below companies were Most Valuable top 10 companies in India between 1995 to 2010..??

Where are they now? What CAGR returns did they generate? Why?

- Century Textiles
- Brooke Bond
- Hindalco
- Tata Communications
- IDBI Bank
- Indian Hotels
- Satyam Computer

(1/2)

- NIIT
- Zee Entertainment
- Indian Oil
- Himachal Futuristic
- Reliance Infra
- RCOM
- Suzlon Energy
- DLF
- Unitech
- Reliance Power
- Sterlite
- Jindal Steel
- Cairn India
- Coal India

This is how survivorship bias can be studied..

#investing #TechnoFunda

(2/2)

For almost seven years, I have tracked the hotels space very closely.

While everyone wants to jump on the 'unlock trade' bandwagon, I do not feel it's a great idea because the business model in itself is a little flawed.

Here's a thread 👇 (1/n)

Let's first start with the industry overview.
The whole industry works on one and one thing only. Revenues. (Let's call this A)

Are you capable of charging higher Revenues from your customers on a regular basis?

Are you able to maintain your Revenues if not increase them? (2/n)

Why is this relevant?
Well, think of a regular business selling goods / services.
Typically, when you're not able to sell something, you keep it for the next day or hold it in your 'inventory'.
Typically you have a certain level of demand estimation before you manufacture(3/n)

Whether you manufacture a product or sell a service, you do a certain degree of demand planning.

In the context of hotels, this would be based on the location, the demand of tourist arrivals and accordingly the number of keys (hotel rooms).

(4/n)

The only catch here is the fact that you only have a 24 hour window to sell a day's inventory.

Taj Mahal Palace in Mumbai only has a 24 hour window on a daily basis to sell 560 room nights.

Once the day gets expired, the inventory is gone. (5/n)

Shuchi Nahar's Weekend Blog! : Ethanol - Demand, Market Size, Opportunities & New Government Policies https://t.co/ehAP1CNsiM
#ethanol #fermentation #chemical

Learn about the STEEL SECTOR in this thread

The demand for steel is generally only 1.2 times the GDP & there is no significant growth in our GDP but still the sector has rallied relentlessly, lets try & understand

Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors (1/22)
#Investing

The metal sector is broadly divided into 2,
-Ferrous is a category of metal that has Iron in it, Steel as an example
-Non-Ferrous is a metal, which does not have Iron content, Aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, Zinc etc.
This thread focuses on Ferrous & hence Steel (2/22)

To start, lets understand with how steel is made (its important).
Iron ore is mined, it is then first converted to Iron & Iron is then converted to Steel. There are 3 processes of making steel
-Blast Furnace
-Scrap Metal
-DRIP/Sponge
We will discuss all three (3/22)

A basic premier on the banking sector, demystifying commonly used terms,
CASA
Wholesale Banking
Net Interest Income (NII)
Cost of Liability
Advances Growth
Gross v/s Net NPA
Provisions
SLR/CRR
Capital Adequacy Ratio
Net Interest Margin (NIM)

Do hit the 're-tweet' (1/n)

Banking, as a business is simple to understand, you borrow money (liability for the bank as the bank needs to pay back) and lend (asset for the bank as the bank is expected to receive it bank), the difference between the borrowings & lending is banks income (2/n)

Where all can they borrow from?

(a) Savings Account (SA)
(b) Current Account (CA)
(c) Fixed Deposit (FD)
(d) Recurring Deposit (RD)
(e) Certificate of Deposits (CD)
(f) Bonds etc. (3/n)

Whom do they lend?
(a) Retail - Housing loan, auto loan, personal loan etc.
(b) Wholesale (Institutional Lending) – Commercial Papers (CP) & other Corporate Loans

P.S. – “HDFC Bank is now increasing focus on wholesale lending”, hope you now understand what that means (4/n)

How does the bank profit?

So lets say the average borrowing cost of the bank (also know as the cost of liabilities) is 4.54% & average lending cost is 8.54%, the difference 8.54% - 4.54% = 4% is called the Net Interest Income (NII). HDFC Banks Cost of Liability is 4.54% (5/n)

In a business where the buying & selling price is fixed by the government, how is that the sugar stocks are rallying so much?

A thread 🧵 to learn how the sugar sector works. Do re-tweet and hence us educate more investors (1/n)

- Sugar is made out of Sugarcane
- The government fixes buying price (FRP – Fair & Remunerative price) for the mill from the farmers at 2.850/Kg
- Selling price is also fixed at Rs. 31/Kg (MSP – Minimum selling price) (2/n)

Lets understand the sector,

- Sugarcane purchased by the mill is crushed to remove the juice (exactly like you have sugarcane juice at a hotel)
- Juice is heated & boiled to remove sugar (3/n)

- The juice can be boiled upto 3 times to remove sugar. Each time it is boiled, sugar is removed, than some water is added and boiled again to remove more sugar (4/n)

- There are 2 by-products as well. The residue left behind after the boiling process is over is like a gum/paste called molasses & the fiber/stem of the sugarcane after juice is extracted (5/n)