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Amy Maxmen, PhD
@amymaxmen 4 years, 4 months ago 769 views

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Azar just released a delusional, alternative history of Covid testing in the US. I’m mad because our testing failures allowed this outbreak to blow-up. We can’t fix our system if we ignore where it is broken. I suspect @PublicHealth agrees.

My fact-check on remarks @HHSGov 🧵

“It is indisputable that the United States has built the most extensive testing system and strategy of any major country,” says Azar.

False. Several countries have had percent positivity ~1% whereas US has never been below 5% and is >10% today. Refs KCDC & USA @JohnsHopkins

"The federal government got out of the way of test development in safe and sensible ways,” says Azar.

False. In Feb, CDC & FDA blocked labs from testing as the disease spread exponentially. I broke this story👇🏼& wrote more like it as the year wore on. https://t.co/5zbGfZaSry

Azar defends questions about why the CDC refused an early German test vetted & distributed by WHO, by saying it was ‘unapproved’ & beneath us.

False. Top US researchers in my stories vetted several tests as early as Feb,& found that the one recommended by WHO was ideal.

Azar refuses to concede that other countries handled Covid better. He attributes Koreas success to less travel, invasiveness & private sector.

False. Korea's gov't marshaled the private sector & tracing success was largely from hiring tons of tracers. https://t.co/Ad1D1kpd6Q

Here's a nugget of truth. The FDA held back academic labs from testing, and have been unclear. Researchers testing like @srikosuri @UrnovFyodor may be interested in this part of the discussion.

Azar asserts "There is a myth out there that, if only we’d had a superior testing system, we simply could have caught any cases and isolated them."

False (except for it being simple). Any outbreak specialist tells you that early days matter most. That's THE time for containment.

I need to get back to work but the speech goes on. I'll try to return to this later. In the meantime, here's my piece with @jefftollef about testing failures and why they matter so much. https://t.co/7pL6SzLvNc

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$\U0001f6f8\U0001f48eTooTallRN\U0001f48e\U0001f6f8\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f\u2b50\ufe0f$

🛸💎TooTallRN💎🛸⭐️⭐️⭐️...
@VeteransAlways_

The number 666 relates to the carbon atom, and man. Carbon-12; one of 5 elements in the human DNA is composed of 6 protons, 6 electrons and 6 neutrons, which equates to 666.
.@realDonaldTrump
.@GenFlynn
.@RudyGiuliani

10-K Diver
@10kdiver

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Binomial Thinking.

The future is always uncertain. There are many different ways it can unfold -- some more likely than others. Binomial thinking helps us embrace this view.

2/

The S&P 500 index is at ~3768 today.

Suppose we want to predict where it will be 10 years from now.

Historically, we know that this index has returned ~10% per year.

If we simply extrapolate this, we get an estimate of ~9773 for the index 10 years from now:

3/

What we just did is called a "point estimate" -- a prediction about the future that's a single number (9773).

But of course, we know the future is uncertain. It's impossible to predict it so precisely.

So, there's a sense of *false precision* in point estimates like this.

4/

To emphasize the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a better approach is to predict a *range* of values rather than a single number.

For example, we may say the index will return somewhere in the *range* of 8% to 12% (instead of a fixed 10%) per year.

5/

10 years from now, this implies an index value in the *range* [8135, 11703]:

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Lea Kissner
@LeaKissner

Next up at #enigma2021, Sanghyun Hong will be speaking about "A SOUND MIND IN A VULNERABLE BODY: PRACTICAL HARDWARE ATTACKS ON DEEP LEARNING"

(Hint: speaker is on the

In recent years ML models have worked from research labs to production, which makes ML security important. Adversarial ML research studies how to mess with ML

For example by messing with the training data (c.f. Tay which became super-racist super-fast) or by foiling ML models by changing inputs in ways humans can't see.

Prior work considers ML models in a standalone, mathematical way
* looks at the robustness in an isolated manner
* doesn't look at the whole ecosystem and how the model is used -- ML models are running in real hardware with real software which has real vulns!

This talk focuses on hardware-level vulnerabilities. This is particularly interesting because these can break cryptographic guarantees (because those are outside of their threat models)
e.g. fault injection attacks, side-channel attacks

Matthew Salganik
@msalganik

Announcing the 2021 Summer Institutes in Computational Social Science. #SICSS is for grad students, post-docs & beginning faculty. Free for participants. @chris_bail and I are happy to tell you about all 20 locations. https://t.co/wolhtZIMc5 [thread]

SICSS brings together social scientists & data scientists interested in computational social science for 1-2 week events with intensive study & collaborative research.

Topics covered include automated text analysis, web scraping, non-probability sampling, digital experiments, ethics & much more.

All education materials created for SICSS are available open-source so that people who are unable to participate can still learn. You can also use them in your teaching. Here are materials from previous years:

Because of COVID, all SICSS locations will be online only in 2021.

Benedikt Kuhnhaeuser
@BenKuhnhaeuser

The calamoid palms 🌴 have over 500 species spread across the world, but their higher-level relationships were a bit of a mystery. Until now.

Out today in #MolecularPhylogeneticsAndEvolution:

A robust phylogenomic framework for the calamoid palms https://t.co/JiCbSUlheH

1/10

First some background info, so that you know what we are talking about:

Calamoid palms look a bit like snakes 🐍 (don't they!?!), because their fruits are covered in overlapping scales. And with their often fierce spines, they are equally fearsome. 😱

2/10

They are classified into 17 genera, 10 subtribes and 3 tribes. They have an amazing variety of growth forms, from stemless to climbing to tree habit. 🌱🌴

3/10

But as I said, their relationships have been a bit of a mystery. Here's the varying relationships previous studies found over the last 20 years.

4/10

We tackled this mystery with a phylogenomic approach: we sampled almost a thousand genes (a hundred times more than previous studies!) of 75 species representing all calamoid tribes, subtribes and genera.

The resulting data matrix is pretty massive...

5/10

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Priyanka (Astrology Gu...
@AstroAmigo

1

From today, we will memorize the names of 27 Nakshatras in Vedic Jyotish to never forget in life.

I will write 4 names. Repeat them in SAME sequence twice in morning, noon, evening. Each day, revise new names + recall all previously learnt names.

Pls RT if you are in.

2

Today's Nakshatras are:-

1. Ashwini - अश्विनी

2. Bharani - भरणी

3. Krittika - कृत्तिका

4. Rohini - रोहिणी

Ashwini - अश्विनी is the FIRST Nakshatra.

Repeat these names TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon and evening. Like this tweet if you have revised 8 times as told.

3

Today's Nakshatras are:-

5. Mrigashira - मृगशिरा

6. Ardra - आर्द्रा

7. Punarvasu - पुनर्वसु

8. Pushya - पुष्य

First recall previously learnt Nakshatras twice. Then recite these TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet only after doing so.

4

Today's Nakshatras are:-

9. Ashlesha - अश्लेषा

10. Magha - मघा

11. Purvaphalguni - पूर्वाफाल्गुनी

12. Uttaraphalguni - उत्तराफाल्गुनी

Purva means that comes before (P se Purva, P se pehele), and Uttara comes later.

Read next tweet too.

5

Purva, Uttara prefixes come in other Nakshatras too. Purva= pehele wala. Remember.

First recall previously learnt 8 Nakshatras twice. Then recite those in Tweet #4 TWICE now, tomorrow morning, noon & evening in SAME order. Like this tweet if you have read Tweets #4 & 5, both.

Talha
@dhiblawe1990

Thread: History of Mogadishu and it’s conquest by Imaam Al Yaqubi

One of the First Imaams of the Hiraab Imamate was Mohamed Ibn Imaam Ahmed ibn Imam Ahmed Ibn Imaam Mohamoud Ibn Imaam Cumar Halol Al Yacquubi (Abgaal) during the year 1097 hijri.

After the collapse of the Ajuuran Abgaal nomads from the interior had started moving to take over the strategic port town of Mogadishu which was then under the muzzafar dynasty. By the 1600s Abgaal warriors had captured the city and set up their base in shingaani.

Mogadishu at the time was a large and well known port town. The Abgaal clan taking over control allowed them to obtain political power and world wide recognition.

Under Imaam Yaqubi’s time in power it’s reported that French merchants had arrived at the port in 1701
and stayed for 11 days. They had attempted to take the city but were successfully repulsed.

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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

So the cryptocurrency industry has basically two products, one which is relatively benign and doesn't have product market fit, and one which is malignant and does. The industry has a weird superposition of understanding this fact and (strategically?) not understanding it.

If everyone was holding bitcoin on the old x86 in their parents basement, we would be finding a price bottom. The problem is the risk is all pooled at a few brokerages and a network of rotten exchanges with counter party risk that makes AIG circa 2008 look like a good credit.
— Greg Wester (@gwestr) November 25, 2018

The benign product is sovereign programmable money, which is historically a niche interest of folks with a relatively clustered set of beliefs about the state, the literary merit of Snow Crash, and the utility of gold to the modern economy.

This product has narrow appeal and, accordingly, is worth about as much as everything else on a 486 sitting in someone's basement is worth.

The other product is investment scams, which have approximately the best product market fit of anything produced by humans. In no age, in no country, in no city, at no level of sophistication do people consistently say "Actually I would prefer not to get money for nothing."

This product needs the exchanges like they need oxygen, because the value of it is directly tied to having payment rails to move real currency into the ecosystem and some jurisdictional and regulatory legerdemain to stay one step ahead of the banhammer.

Brittany Packnett
@MsPackyetti

We should stop confusing what someone was doing when we became aware of them with all they are capable of, interested in, or ever hope to be

Let folks have their many talents, interests and gifts. Life is far more fun with variety, loves.

A lot of folks have come to know me as an activist & I’m grateful that folks care to know me at all.

But I wasn’t born in 2014. I was a whole teacher, executive, policy person, speaker, arts and culture lover, reader, writer, woman of faith, fashion and more before 4 yrs ago 🤷🏾‍♀️

We rightfully complain that marginalized people are not allowed to be fully human.

But we internalize and transfer our oppression daily. It’s a smog. We all breathe it in & act it out.

And then tell WoC “girl ain’t you supposed to be a _______? Why you doing ____?”

Can I live?

And don’t go reading anything personal into this-this isn’t about me necessarily and it’s no subtweet (I try hard not to do that.)

I’ve just been observing that behavior more and more lately. Especially when it comes to marginalized folks.

Evolution should be our aspiration.

“Can’t knock the hustle” should be our anthem.

As long as someone isn’t bringing active and continual harm, why can’t they explore their many sides?

$The Astro Sapien\u2728$

The Astro Sapien✨
@TheAstroSapienn

Here is my Thread on 'Ketu (South Node) Through Nakshatras' The 27 Constellations 🙏❣.

Do check your “Past life Mastery” which KETU Represents🤞🏻.

1. Ketu in Ashwini Nakshatra:

Here native is Great at Financial Planning, Face reading, understanding other’s mind and intention, Driving Fast they don’t like but they are wayyy smooth over driving Fast. This is also great position which can make native Great Surgeon,

Neurologist, Psychologist.
These natives are Selfless and Sacrifice self for others. They gets Fame and Success but they just don’t care.

2. Ketu in Bharani Nakshatra:

They are good at Flirting, Attracting opposite sex, studing ancient subjects. They are also Great at Creativity and Artistic activities. The are lazy but they are really open minded who handles situations really well.

In Past life they have handles many things which is now helping them to make things easier in this life. They are great Leaders too.

They are really good at Hard work and Smart work both. And yes just as Ashwini they don’t much care about Fame and Success!