https://t.co/xvP6tVlIaE
Quite a surprise. Ferguson isn’t qualified to comment on such things. He lacks understanding of basic biological concepts, partly explaining why his predictions are often so extreme.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErhWZ-FW8AAnAjn.jpg)
I’ll get to London & here immunity. But those wavering about the evidence about lockdown in spring really will benefit from cogitating on this graph.
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErhWbLOXYAEToKY.jpg)
What this means is that almost all of U.K. experienced what’s called unmitigated...
Back to London. Three months ago, I wrote a detailed article which contained several predictions.
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErhWcS6XUAAFCuz.jpg)
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErhWdDlXIAE_W95.jpg)
SAGE’s errors unfortunately have been compounded & their mistaken narrative is gradually destroying
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ErhWeDcXYAEKPTZ.jpg)
More from Yardley Yeadon
I urge all followers who have read my criticisms of PCR mass testing in U.K. to carefully read Mr Fordham’s carefully worded letter. Note that the innovation minister in the Lords, Lord Bethel, already admitted that the PCR system doesn’t have the equivalent of an MOT. https://t.co/zXzeDMKCBb
Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.
As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...
...we are sure Hancock told a lie is that they have never known the FPR. Those including Hancock who believe that the oFPR can be estimated by inspection of the lowest positivity ever recorded, while logical, is completely wrong. Changes in personnel, throughout, testing...
...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EpBm7JNXUAEhxEV.jpg)
So I wrote back to @lucyfrazermp for another go. Here\u2019s my letter.
— Edmund Fordham (@EdmundFordham) November 28, 2020
They don\u2019t understand how serious this is.
If they can\u2019t tell us the oFPR, our PCR testing is worthless. (thread) pic.twitter.com/zHJ8SJCzf1
Without this information it’s impossible to interpret any result. If the oFPR is 4%, for example, and if the true prevalence is 0.3% (it’s probably less), then for every 10,000 tests, 400 positives would be false & 30 positives would be genuine. So 93% of positives are false.
As Mr Fordham points out, almost all policies pivot on PCR mass testing. Hancock previously admitted on talkRADIO to Julia Hartley-Brewer in late summer that the FPR was “just under 1%”. That was a flat lie (possibly inadvertent but he’s never corrected the record). The reason...
...we are sure Hancock told a lie is that they have never known the FPR. Those including Hancock who believe that the oFPR can be estimated by inspection of the lowest positivity ever recorded, while logical, is completely wrong. Changes in personnel, throughout, testing...
...architecture & the like can radically alter the oFPR. Since Hancock’s remark in late summer, PCR mass testing has moved into the Lighthouse Labs & this creates a new & urgent need to continually assess oFPR. I’ve good reason to believe it’s now VERY much higher now that the...
@ukiswitheu I invite people to run the thought experiment: “what if the ‘cases’ data is inaccurate?”
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:
Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”
I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being
https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
Ignore ‘cases’, look instead only at excess deaths (per M Levitt’s tweet). Does that look characteristic of an epidemic? It’s completely diff from spring or any winter flu outbreak.
London:
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqyIlcvXAAAfCdp.jpg)
Can anyone explain why there is no ‘2nd wave’ of excess deaths in London, without invoking herd immunity?
It’s not lockdown. See NW England:
This is the largest #SecondaryRipple (which I predicted).
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqyJL90W8AAn3iY.jpg)
https://t.co/b0rT5Lq9HI
Now check the 3 predictions I made months ago. They’ve all happened. Compare predictions from SAGE’s statements: they’re all wrong.
Even neutrals at this point might ask themselves “if he’s been right on all predictions, maybe he’s correct now?”
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqyJ-EaXYAAB82h.jpg)
I’ve been saying since the Lighthouse Labs got up & running that I’m deeply sceptical about the trustworthiness of their ‘cases’ data. I showed how, at low virus prevalence, the PCR mass testing data was throwing out potentially 90% positives being
https://t.co/t4qQN4rH0u
I got ‘fact checked’ a LOT over that statement. This paper just published, about precisely that time period I speculated about. Turns out that high-80s% of Dr Healy’s positives by PCR were FALSE. This alone is sufficient in my view to throw severe doubt...
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I wish I had this... — don't excuse yourself. Forget about what you can't and focus on what you can.
Stop comparing yourself to others, come from the point of what you have, know and have: "I can... so I will do..!" #MyMindset
BTW this was an update of one of the previous tweets. And I'm continuing this thread today!
Do something for the long-term. Everything else is a distraction. 🛑 Nowadays I always check if the thing I'm doing aligns with my long-term plans. If not — that is probably not the best thing to do at the moment. #MyMindset
The only way to get more done is to have less to do. Eliminate your obligations, say "no" to things that are not important, stay minimal in what you do, focus. Being busy is not equal to getting things done. #MyMindset
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dq2NvR8XgAAfZMY.png)
I wish I had this... — don't excuse yourself. Forget about what you can't and focus on what you can.
Stop comparing yourself to others, come from the point of what you have, know and have: "I can... so I will do..!" #MyMindset
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DrOzl0vX4AAhyva.png)
BTW this was an update of one of the previous tweets. And I'm continuing this thread today!
Focus only on positive things! These include what *you* have, know and can do. If you don't have, know or cannot do something either get it or ignore it. Don't think about it and don't use it as an excuse.
— Gleb Sabirzyanov (@zyumbik) October 17, 2018
I've been struggling to follow this principle for a long time. #MyMindset pic.twitter.com/SK5vtwHs3G
Do something for the long-term. Everything else is a distraction. 🛑 Nowadays I always check if the thing I'm doing aligns with my long-term plans. If not — that is probably not the best thing to do at the moment. #MyMindset
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dsyvma2WsAEY8f2.png)
The only way to get more done is to have less to do. Eliminate your obligations, say "no" to things that are not important, stay minimal in what you do, focus. Being busy is not equal to getting things done. #MyMindset
![](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds3Oh_NWoAE93Gy.png)