BC PRINCIPLES
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Most people suck at decision-making.

Let's change that.

Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵

 The Inside-Outside View

We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.

To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Ladder of Inference

Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.

To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.

h/t (image) - @amrancz
@amrancz Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality

The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.

However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.

h/t - @BrandonMChu
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Devil’s Advocate Position

The antidote to confirmation bias.

It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.

It forces you to create a more compelling argument.

Don't take my word for it:
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Pre-Mortem

Involves assuming that your decision has failed and working backwards to determine what the potential causes were.

This process has multiple benefits:
• Removes overconfidence and irrational optimism
• Reveals blind spots
• Simplifies thinking

h/t @KleInsight
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Post-Mortem

Regardless of success or failure, this can be used to drive continuous improvement in your decision-making.

Here, you ask:
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can be improved next time?

With the answers, future decisions will be better informed.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Decision Trees

These are tree-like graphs with the branches showing results of possible choices for a given decision or action.

The decision tree allows options to be compared against each other, for both risk and return.

They're particularly helpful for financial decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Information Overload

Information overload is when you have too much information at hand.

This causes decisions to take too long.

It also leads to 'analysis paralysis' where your decision-making suffers paralysis because you over-analyze the body of information available.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Analysis Paralysis

It's the paradox of choice: having too many good options slows us down because the best one isn't clear.

Remember: by not making a choice, you are actually making a choice: the status quo.

A model to cope with this: reversible vs. irreversible decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions

Irreversible decisions are 'one-way doors.'

They must be made slowly and deliberately.

Reversible decisions are 'two-way doors.'

These decisions can and should be made quickly.

https://t.co/IEwHegYCyB
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Luck Razor

If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

Should I stay in tonight or should I go and meet this interesting stranger?

Choose to increase your surface area of luck when you have the choice.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Make Proud Decisions for Your 80-Year Old and 10-Year Old Self

Your 80-year-old self helps you makes decisions you won't regret when you're old.

Your 10-year-old self reminds you to stay foolish and have some fun along the way.

h/t - @SahilBloom
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Minimize Unforced Errors

A concept from tennis, 'unforced error' is a metaphor for any situation where an avoidable mistake is made.

The first goal of decision-making should always be to minimize unforced errors.

How?

Sound judgement and decision making techniques.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Outcome Blind

The biggest mistake when judging performance is only looking at the outcome.

Instead, we should focus on the process used.

It's possible to win with a bad decision making process (luck) or lose with a good process.

What's important is knowing the 'Why.'
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom 10/10/10 Rule

We're all guilty of making decisions without thinking about long term consequences.

To avoid this, ask:
• How will I feel about this 10 minutes from now?
• 10 months from now?
• 10 years from now?

This helps clarify the decision that results in a win/win/win.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom That's 15 of the best decision-making models I've found.

Tell me, what would you add?

If you enjoyed this thread:

1. Follow me @_alexbrogan for more mental models, concepts, and frameworks

2. RT the tweet below to share this with others who might enjoy it :) https://t.co/DUuiG7bnyY

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If you want to win an argument, don't make these mistakes:

First things first: The best way to win an argument is to not enter one in the first place.

However, we don't always have that luxury and can sometimes find ourselves needing to defend a point of view.

If this happens, here are 15 logical fallacies to avoid:

Anecdotal (vs. Empirical Evidence)

Using a personal experience or an isolated example to try and prove a point instead of empirical or more compelling evidence.

Humans tend to believe and relate to stories, but don't fall into this trap.

What's true for you isn't always true.

Likely or Plausible Fallacy

Likely: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is possible means that it is likely.

Plausible: Incorrectly assuming that just because something is plausible means that it is true.

Begging The Question

Involves presenting a circular argument where the conclusion is included in the premise.

Examples:

1/ "Of course smoking causes cancer. The smoke from cigarettes is a carcinogen."

2/ "Circular reasoning is bad mostly because it's not very good."
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2) Attach new memories to old memories

3) Make information vivid and exciting

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Memory Palace

1) Prepare an organised location (E.g. your house layout)

2) Create markers in this location in an easy to follow order

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The Textbook Method

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The Question-Book Method

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This thread shares my framework—built through personal struggle—for finding and operating in your Zone of Genius:

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1) Govern yourself

To quote Nietzsche:

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Most people need an external force to motivate them into action, or to keep them in check morally.

Freedom is the will to be responsible to oneself.

It’s imperative that a man learns to be his own leader, to act in accordance with his own beliefs, and to use his own values as a moral compass.

Such a man becomes elevated from a yes-man to a Superman.

2) Follow your own path

Nietzsche said:

“You have your way, and I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it doesn’t exist!”

The lesson here is that no one has the license to dictate your life’s trajectory.

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▸ Earned 59 Nominations
▸ Won 26 Academy Awards

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1. Follow Your Heart:

“All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them."

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Lesson:

Trust your gut & pursue your goals alone.

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| Thread


1. "A great man is hard on himself; a small man is hard on others."

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2. “He who conquers himself is the mightiest warrior.”

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First, by reflection, which is noblest;
Second, by imitation, which is easiest;
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10 harsh truths society won't teach you.

1. Nobody is going to help you.

When you rise high, people will clap for you and when you fall down, people laugh at you.

But nobody will come to save you from adversity.

If you're strong, you'll get up again and again on your own.

2. Your 20s are not for settling down.

This is the beginning of your financial and mental growth.

If you chase a stable job, then you'll lose the chance of being rich and wise.

It's time to take more risks and play different games(not video games).

3. Your college life isn't the best phase of your life.

Most people will tell you that these college days are not going to come back.

But in reality, if you work on yourself, you'll see amazing days in your life.

Don't waste your college days partying and chilling all day.

4. Your degree is not going to make you rich.

This is the biggest truth.

Fu*k your degree and focus on skills.

Learn skills that are important in the world:

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- Writing.
- Designing.

There are many more important skills that can make you rich.
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Surkanda devi mandir is a famous shrine of Hindus located near Kaddukhal distt of Uttarakhand, 11 Km from the town of Dhanaulti and 35 Km from Mussoorie.
The Temple is one of the 51 Shakti Peethas spread all over Indian Subcontinent and is dedicated to Goddess Surkanda.


Nestled on a Hill at an Altitude of 2700 m approx, the place offers a splendid view of the snow capped mountains, the picturesque scenic beauty that offers an experience of the lifetime.
The Temple build in the traditional Garhwal style exuberates the Architectural splendour.


The origins of the Surkanda Mata Mandir is attributed to Goddess Sati, consort of Bhagwan Shiv who in a rage immolated herself in her arrogant Father Daksha's Yajna Kund bcoz he didn't invite Bhagwan Shiv in the Yajna.


Devastated by the death of Sati Shiva wandered all over the cosmos performing Tandava-The Dance of Cosmic Destruction.Fearing the total annihilation of cosmos, Gods requested Bhagwan Vishnu to pacify Shiva.Bhagwan Vishnu then used his discuss to destroy the burning corps of Sati.


The pieces of Sati Mata's body then got scattered all over the region which were later established as Shakti Peethas by Bhagwan Shiva himself.Its believed that the head of Sati fell here and it was called Sirkhanda Mata Temple before, but with passage of time it became Surkanda.
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