BC PRINCIPLES
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Most people suck at decision-making.

Let's change that.

Here are 15 of the best decision-making mental models I've found 🧵

 The Inside-Outside View

We have a natural tendency to favour the inside view—our own independent solution to a problem that incorporates all of our hidden biases.

To make better decisions, we should favour the outside view—one that incorporates the best available data.
Ladder of Inference

Describes the thinking process we go through—often subconsciously—to get from a fact to a decision or action.

To make better decisions, we should move slowly and deliberately from the bottom of the ladder to the top of the ladder.

h/t (image) - @amrancz
@amrancz Confidence Determines Speed vs. Quality

The more confidence you have in the importance of a problem and your understanding of its solution, the more you should focus on quality.

However, if you need to learn more, move fast and break things.

h/t - @BrandonMChu
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Devil’s Advocate Position

The antidote to confirmation bias.

It involves forcing yourself to view a decision from the opposite viewpoint or finding people who disagree with you.

It forces you to create a more compelling argument.

Don't take my word for it:
@amrancz @BrandonMChu Pre-Mortem

Involves assuming that your decision has failed and working backwards to determine what the potential causes were.

This process has multiple benefits:
• Removes overconfidence and irrational optimism
• Reveals blind spots
• Simplifies thinking

h/t @KleInsight
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Post-Mortem

Regardless of success or failure, this can be used to drive continuous improvement in your decision-making.

Here, you ask:
• What went well?
• What went poorly?
• What can be improved next time?

With the answers, future decisions will be better informed.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Decision Trees

These are tree-like graphs with the branches showing results of possible choices for a given decision or action.

The decision tree allows options to be compared against each other, for both risk and return.

They're particularly helpful for financial decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Information Overload

Information overload is when you have too much information at hand.

This causes decisions to take too long.

It also leads to 'analysis paralysis' where your decision-making suffers paralysis because you over-analyze the body of information available.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Analysis Paralysis

It's the paradox of choice: having too many good options slows us down because the best one isn't clear.

Remember: by not making a choice, you are actually making a choice: the status quo.

A model to cope with this: reversible vs. irreversible decisions.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Reversible vs. Irreversible Decisions

Irreversible decisions are 'one-way doors.'

They must be made slowly and deliberately.

Reversible decisions are 'two-way doors.'

These decisions can and should be made quickly.

https://t.co/IEwHegYCyB
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Luck Razor

If stuck with 2 equal options, pick the one that feels like it will produce the most luck later down the line.

Should I stay in tonight or should I go and meet this interesting stranger?

Choose to increase your surface area of luck when you have the choice.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight Make Proud Decisions for Your 80-Year Old and 10-Year Old Self

Your 80-year-old self helps you makes decisions you won't regret when you're old.

Your 10-year-old self reminds you to stay foolish and have some fun along the way.

h/t - @SahilBloom
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Minimize Unforced Errors

A concept from tennis, 'unforced error' is a metaphor for any situation where an avoidable mistake is made.

The first goal of decision-making should always be to minimize unforced errors.

How?

Sound judgement and decision making techniques.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom Outcome Blind

The biggest mistake when judging performance is only looking at the outcome.

Instead, we should focus on the process used.

It's possible to win with a bad decision making process (luck) or lose with a good process.

What's important is knowing the 'Why.'
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom 10/10/10 Rule

We're all guilty of making decisions without thinking about long term consequences.

To avoid this, ask:
• How will I feel about this 10 minutes from now?
• 10 months from now?
• 10 years from now?

This helps clarify the decision that results in a win/win/win.
@amrancz @BrandonMChu @KleInsight @SahilBloom That's 15 of the best decision-making models I've found.

Tell me, what would you add?

If you enjoyed this thread:

1. Follow me @_alexbrogan for more mental models, concepts, and frameworks

2. RT the tweet below to share this with others who might enjoy it :) https://t.co/DUuiG7bnyY

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25 freakishly effective mental models that will save you hundreds of hours of your life:

Decomplication

We’ve been led to believe that our everyday problems—weight loss, productivity, saving money—require complex solutions.

This is called ‘artificial complexity.’

Decomplication is the process of boiling problems down to their simplest form.

h/t @nateliason


Via Negativa

When we have a problem, our natural instinct is to add a new habit or buy a solution.

But usually, you improve your life by subtracting instead.

The foods you avoid are more important than the foods you eat.

Subtracting distractions is the key to productivity.

Speed Matters

The faster you do things, the less activation energy is required to do any one thing.

To avoid procrastination, keep the activation energy low by shortening the timeframe for the work that needs to be done, and work faster.

h/t @jsomers


@jsomers Hourly Aspirational Rate

Figure out how much an hour of your time is worth: Your 'aspirational hourly' rate.

When deciding whether or not to do a task, ask whether it's worth more or less than your rate.

If it's worth less than your rate, outsource, automate, or delete it.
SELFHELPGETTINGMOREDONE

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10 HARDCORE LIFE LESSONS FROM FRIEDRICH NIETZSCHE:

1) Govern yourself

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Most people need an external force to motivate them into action, or to keep them in check morally.

Freedom is the will to be responsible to oneself.

It’s imperative that a man learns to be his own leader, to act in accordance with his own beliefs, and to use his own values as a moral compass.

Such a man becomes elevated from a yes-man to a Superman.

2) Follow your own path

Nietzsche said:

“You have your way, and I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way, and the only way, it doesn’t exist!”

The lesson here is that no one has the license to dictate your life’s trajectory.

Never let anyone interfere with your life, and you should never interfere with anyone’s life.
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1. "The darker the night, the brighter the stars, The deeper the grief, the closer is God!"

- Fyodor Dostoevsky

2. "The mystery of human existence lies not in just staying alive, but in finding something to live for."

- Fyodor Dostoevsky

3. "Pain and suffering are always inevitable for a large intelligence and a deep heart.

The really great men must, I think, have great sadness on earth."

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4. "Nothing in this world is harder than speaking the truth, nothing easier than flattery."

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= THREAD =


1. Anchoring bias

This is when you base all your decisions on the first information you receive

If I told you my service was $1000

Then you came back a week later and I said $500 you would think you were getting a deal

You can use this to sell your product to anyone

2. Availability heuristic bias

You overestimate the importance of the mainstream media

People make decisions based more on stories and news than real information

If people see there is a problem with public school

Then they will start homeschooling their children

3. Bandwagon bias

You will believe something not because of what you believe but because you want to be part of the majority

This is dangerous

Avoid groupthink and speak up in situations where you feel pressured to agree with everyone else

4. Choice supportive bias

You have the tendency to defend something just because you chose it

Think about IPhone users

They only see the good and avoid the negative sides

If you avoid this you can use it as an advantage to those who can’t

Don’t be a consumer, be a creator
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1. Ikigai


2. Shikita ga nai


3. Wabi-sabi


4. Gaman
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20 ideas I can’t stop thinking about:

The Feynman Technique

To learn anything:

Step 1: Identify a topic
Step 2: Try to explain it to a 5-year-old
Step 3: Study to fill in knowledge gaps
Step 4: Organize, convey, and review

True genius is the ability to simplify, not complicate.

Simple is beautiful.

Intellectual Sparring Partners

Most of us need fewer friends and more intellectual sparring partners.

Friends are easy to come by.

Intellectual sparring partners are harder to find.

They will call you on your BS, question your assumptions, and push you to think deeply.

Boredom Alpha

Experiencing regular periods of boredom is a competitive advantage.

Your most creative moments come during bouts of boredom.

In the shower, on a walk, at a dinner by yourself.

You’re bored, your mind wanders, and creative insight strikes.

Boredom creates alpha.

Paths Open vs. Closed

Black Lines = paths closed
Green Lines = paths open

We spend too much time focusing on what might have been (black) and not enough time focusing on what may be (green).

Never underestimate the density of opportunity that lies ahead.

(h/t @waitbutwhy)
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Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
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Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is located in Samayapuram of
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Amman vigraham here is made of sand and clay so


no abhishekam done to the main vigraham. Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is one of the famous Shakthi Sthal of Tamilnadu.

Story says that paramashiva created Kali, out of the poison that he drank during samudra mathanam.  As Devi originated from the Kaalakoota/ halahala poison,


thus the name Kaali. Mariamman is believed to be a form of Kaali, and is also known as Mahamayi. It is also believed that Maharaja Dasharatha offered his prayers here.

Mariamman is Parashakti herself who blesses with prosperity and she is believed to cure all diseases.


Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva are believed to have taken blessings of Mariamman here.

Om Shakti Para Shakti
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Brown insinuates with no real evidence whatsoever that the Epoch Times is 'Falon Gong-linked'.

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सा विद्या या विमुक्तये...
@raghav_aanya
#ज्योतिष_विज्ञान #मंत्र_विज्ञान

ज्योतिषाचार्य अक्सर ग्रहों के दुष्प्रभाव के समाधान के लिए मंत्र जप, अनुष्ठान इत्यादि बताते हैं।

व्यक्ति के जन्म के समय ग्रहों की स्थिति ही उसकी कुंडली बन जाती है जैसे कि फ़ोटो खींच लिया हो और एडिट करना सम्भव नही है। इसे ही "लग्न" कुंडली कहते हैं।


लग्न के समय ग्रहों की इस स्थिति से ही जीवन भर आपको किस ग्रह की ऊर्जा कैसे प्रभावित करेगी का निर्धारिण होता है। साथ साथ दशाएँ, गोचर इत्यादि चलते हैं पर लग्न कुंडली का रोल सबसे महत्वपूर्ण है।


पृथ्वी से अरबों खरबों दूर ये ग्रह अपनी ऊर्जा से पृथ्वी/व्यक्ति को प्रभावित करते हैं जैसे हमारे सबसे निकट ग्रह चंद्रमा जोकि जल का कारक है पृथ्वी और शरीर के जलतत्व पर पूर्ण प्रभाव रखता है।
पूर्णिमा में उछाल मारता समुद्र का जल इसकी ऊर्जा के प्रभाव को दिखाता है।


अमावस्या में ऊर्जा का स्तर कम होने पर वही समुद्र शांत होकर पीछे चला जाता है। जिसे ज्वार-भाटा कहते हैं। इसी तरह अन्य ग्रहों की ऊर्जा के प्रभाव होते हैं जिन्हें यहां समझाना संभव नहीं।
चंद्रमा की ये ऊर्जा शरीर को (अगर खराब है) water retention, बैचेनी, नींद न आना आदि लक्षण दिखाती है


मंत्र क्या हैं-
मंत्र इन ऊर्जाओं के सटीक प्रयोग करने के पासवर्ड हैं। जिनके जप से संबंधित ग्रह की ऊर्जा को जातक की ऊर्जा से कनेक्ट करके उन ग्रहों के दुष्प्रभाव को कम किया और शुभ प्रभाव को बढ़ाया जाता है।
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Numberonepal
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1/ Stolen from the greatawakening(DOT)win...

I will only be making one post here. Do not ask who I am. Do with this information as you please.

The Trump Card is being played. It's much simpler than you all realize. Some of you have gotten it right.
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Bharadwaj
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Today is Jayanti of Ahilyabai Holkar

She was a widow who became Malwa's greatest queen. Defended our country & personally led armies into battle.Never plundered anyone. Developed Malwa into a prosperous kingdom. Rebuilt temples destroyed by Mughals. Built Dharmashalas at Tirthas


Unfortunately, her memory has been blemished by inaccurate representations in modern popular media.

The serial "Punyashlok Ahilyabai" depicts her as ultra secularist feminazi icon who questions Hindu rituals & Pandits while patronising Sufis.

This is far from historical truth!


Ahilyabai was born on May 31 1725 to Patil Mankoji Shinde.

She was from Dhangar clan(classified as OBC today). While Dhangars were traditionally into herding, they took up arms & held several military /civil roles in various eras of history(especially during Maratha resurgence)


In 1737, when she was 12, Ahilyabai Holkar was married to Khanderao , son of Subedar Malhar Rao Holkar.

By the time she was married, fortunes of Holkar family had already waxed.

Malhar Rao was a Subedar of territory comprising 30 Parganas yielding a revenue of at least 7 Lakh


In 1741, when Ahilyabai was newly married, her father -in-law Malhar Rao Built Indore palace & ordered the kanungo to populate the settlement with a promise of protection to traders.

This began rise of Indore from its background as modest trading town Indrapuri to a great city
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