BC POLITICS
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the New Congress Starting Today and the Election for Speaker.

 2) Starting the new Congress is inherently messy in a pandemic. The House of Representatives implemented “remote voting” in the spring.
3) That’s where the House permitted members who were at high risk, quarantining, tested positive or caring for someone who is ill could “phone in” their vote. The Hse will vote on Monday on a new “rules package” to begin the new Congress which will include a remote voting option
4) But in the House, you can’t carry over rules from the 116th Congress to the 117thCongress.

That’s why everyone has to show up at noon today.

This poses an interesting, ethical question:
5) Is it appropriate for members who have tested positive, have been in quarantine or been exposed, be present today?

Here’s what to expect in the House today.
6) First, the House must take care of old business. The House meets, for the last time at 10 am et and adjourns the 116th Congress. The new, 117th Congress starts at noon et, per the Constitution.
7) Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), an ordained United Methodist pastor, will lead the opening prayer to begin the new session.

Nothing has constituted the House at that point. There is no Speaker. Clerk of the House Cheryl Johnson presides.
8) The first order of business is a quorum call to get everyone there – pandemic style.

Under normal circumstances, all 435 House members-elect would crowd into the chamber to vote electronically and record their presence.
9) But during coronavirus, the House will summon members to the chambers in seven groups of about 72 persons. The first tranche starts with Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC) and runs through Rep. Michael Cloud (R-TX).
10) The seventh and final group stretches from Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) through Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY).

Members are instructed to report to the chamber, record their presence and depart. We expect it will take until a little after 2 pm et to get the quorum there.
11) Watch to see exactly how many members show up for the quorum. This will be crucial because it will dictate the size of the House to begin and how many votes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.
12) Watch to see exactly how many members show up for the quorum. This will be crucial because it will dictate the size of the House to begin and how many votes House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) needs to return to the Speaker’s suite.
13) The House will entertain nominations for Speaker around 2:30 pm et. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will nominate Pelosi. House Republican Conference Chairwoman Liz Cheney (R-WY) will nominate House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).
14) The House will then begin a manual roll call with members filing into the chamber, again, in groups, and verbally announcing their vote. This will take until 5:30 pm et or later.

We expect the election of the Speaker sometime between 5:30 and 6 pm et.
15) Presumably, Pelosi wins and will be sworn-in by the Dean of the House (the longest-serving member), Rep. Don Young (R-AK). Pelosi in turn swears-in Young and begins swearing in members in groups of 72 members.
16) The House will observe a moment of silence to note the death of the late Rep.-elect Luke Letlow (R-LA).

The House should start at 432 members and three vacancies: 222 Democrats and 210 Republicans.
17) The vacancies are from New York’s 22nd District, Louisiana’s 5th District and Florida’s 27th District – but the latter will be filled soon. There is still no race call in the contest between current Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D-NY) and former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY).
18) Letlow died from complications related to coronavirus. Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) indicates she will not be present to take the oath office. So that’s how we get to at least three vacancies to begin the new Congress. Possibly more.
19) Salazar could be sworn-in as soon as her health allows. And, the House could approve a resolution later this week allowing Salazar to be sworn-in outside of the Capitol. That’s happened before.
20) Pelosi indicated she will seat Rep.-elect Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) after her six-vote victory over Democrat Rita Hart. But Hart has asked the House Administration to probe the outcome in that contest.

This is where it could get interesting.
21) You take the field today with the players you have available. That’s why, in the age of a pandemic, it’s possible - possible - that if Democrats don’t have the right numbers, Republicans could - could - actually have the majority.
22) We always say it’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math. Well, the math really matters today. Whichever side has the most members present today is in the majority.

Period.
23) The only thing which really matters as to which side has more votes is what comes next: election of the Speaker.

Nothing can happen in the House until it elects a Speaker.

Nothing.
24) And anything can happen during a pandemic. Even Pelosi has said that her foe in the Speaker’s race is COVID.

The successful Speaker candidate secures an outright majority of the entire House. Not the most votes.
25) So, if the House starts at 432 members and everyone is there, Pelosi needs 217 members vote for her. So if Democrats are at 222 and everyone shows up, the Speaker can only lose five votes. Pelosi lost 15 votes in the Speaker’s contest in January, 2019.
26) Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted present in 2019. But Cooper now says he will vote for Pelosi. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) voted “present” in 2019. Slotkin says she can’t support Pelosi.
27) Reps. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) and Jared Golden (D-ME) voted for Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-IL) two years ago.

That’s why some wonder if it could possible for the House to elect McCarthy or someone else as Speaker.

That scenario is unlikely. But it will come down to the math.
28) What if no candidate secures 217 votes? The House keeps voting until it picks a Speaker. A vote for Speaker hasn’t gone to a second ballot since 1923. House Speaker Frederick Gillett (R-MA) finally prevailed on the fourth ballot.
29) The House burned two months and 133 ballots in 1856 before finally deciding Nathaniel Banks of Massachusetts was fit to be Speaker.

We just know it will take a long time to wrap all of this up. But we are advised that Sunday could be a very long day.

More from Chad Pergram

Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Get used to the following term: “budget reconciliation.”

This is the special parliamentary process President Biden and Congressional Democrats plan to use to advance the next coronavirus relief package. It will likely take a few weeks just to move such a COVID-19 measure.

2) But an understanding of the process may shed light on the policy – and the political realities of Capitol Hill.

President Biden and Democrats in Congress have long memories about how Republicans responded to big legislative initiatives in 2009.

3) The country reeled after the financial crisis. But many Republicans made a pact to reject a stimulus package to help boost the economy. Later that year and in early 2010, Republicans also voted nearly in lockstep against Obamacare.

4) Right or wrong, Democrats felt they waited for Republicans to help out. But were met with blockades and political opposition at every turn. Democrats are wary that they can count on GOP support this year. They still feel the sting of 12 years ago.

5) And that’s why Democrats may go it mostly alone on their next COVID-19 relief measure.

That’s where budget reconciliation kicks in.

Republicans are already complaining that Democrats aren’t working with them on the next COVID bill.
ECONOMY
Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
A) This is “Capitol Crunch.” Congress often faces an avalanche of activity in December as lawmakers try to wrap up for the year. And the challenges this year are particularly acute.

B) Talks go on behind the scenes about a potential coronavirus relief package. We truly don’t know the size of the final product. But we keep hearing that the bipartisan “baseline” will be a little more than $900 billion.

C) But there are still major sticking points over liability protections and money for state and local governments.

D) It appears that the only way to advance any sort of coronavirus bill will be to latch it to the big, $1.4 trillion, omnibus spending bill which leaders and appropriators have been working on for weeks. But that’s far from settled, too.

E) Issues still remain regarding migrant detention policy and money for the wall.

Frankly, it’s going to take until at least early next week to get a coronavirus bill which can jell – let alone, the bill to avoid a government shutdown at 11:59:59 pm et on December 11.
POLITICS
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Washington is staring at the potential of a government shutdown Monday night. This is grim. Congress has approved four temporary spending bills since the end of the government’s fiscal year in September to prevent a shutdown.

2) The most recent stopgap measure was a seven day plan this week. Mbrs knew that the COVID/coronavirus bill was so large, it would take several days to send to the White House. Yes, that bill funds the government until next fall. But it isn’t law until the President signs it.

3) So, the most recent Band-Aid measure was the equivalent of fiscal grout. The House will approve another emergency measure on Monday. But there's doubt the Senate will do anything before then. And, it’s unclear if President Trump would sign anything. That means a shutdown.

4) A shutdown is always dangerous. It could be more dangerous during a pandemic. And it’s unclear if a shutdown could have devastating impacts on distributing the vaccine.

5) It takes a two-thirds vote of both the House and Senate to override a presidential veto. With 359 House yeas and 92 Senate yeas on the COVID/omnibus bill, both bodies have way more than a supermajority to override a presidential veto.
GOVERNMENT
Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) Urgent: the $2,000 stimulus check bill & veto override effort on the defense bill

The House of Representatives meets today in a rare session between Christmas and New Year’s. Two things on the docket today.

2) A bill to authorize $2,000 direct payment checks, in accordance with the President’s push last week and an override attempt of the annual defense bill.

We don’t expect any action in the House until the late afternoon and no votes before 5 pm et.

3) First up, the House debates the bill to provide $2,000 direct payment checks. The House will treat this bill as a “suspension” measure. That means they can rush it to the floor. But the trade off is a 2/3 vote for passage.

4) Note that many Republicans opposed such a plan for direct payments. Fox is told by a member of the GOP leadership that the House will likely get the 2/3 vote necessary for passage.

5) Watch to see how many Republicans, who were against additional direct payments, will now support the President on this issue.

Also in the queue is a vote to override the President’s veto of the annual defense bill. That will entail a debate and then a vote.
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Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram
@ChadPergram
1) A LOT of balls in the air today on Capitol Hill, as is per usual here in December.

The House is expected to vote on a short-term spending bill today to avoid a government shutdown this weekend. Remember, this was supposed to be the easy part of the puzzle.

2) There are dozens of unresolved issues. So the new deadline for government funding will be 11:59:59 pm on December 18.

It’s possible the Senate could take up the stopgap funding bill today. But unclear. That may have to wait until tomorrow.

3) The Senate could also vote today to align with the House and pass the final version of the defense bill. But that could wait until tomorrow or even next week.

A veto override fight is brewing on this with President Trump.

4) The House scored WELL above the two-thirds necessary to override Mr. Trump’s threatened veto. In fact, the vote total last night went well above what the House had to approve the initial version of the legislation in the summer.

5) Based on the Senate’s vote total on the original version (86 yeas), senators should have the necessary votes to sync with the House and override the President later this month.

Congress has never overriden one of President Trump’s eight vetoes.
POLITICS

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🚨 Thread: It’s Happening!

1. This may be the most important thread I’ve put together, yet. This is truly an exciting time for America. We are about to witness history in the making. It will, in fact, be Biblical. Not just for Us, but for the world.
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Larry Schweikart
Larry Schweikart
@LarrySchweikart
1) FL absentees, early voting:

*Dems as expected ("souls to the polls Sunday") had a good day and FINALLY take the early walk-in vote lead by 6,100 votes.

Rs total: 1,151,593
Ds total: 1,092,547

Rs +59,046 combined lead. This is very good for this point in the campaign.

2) At this point in 2016, Rs only led by 40,000. I could be mistaken but I think yesterday was the last day polls were open on Sunday, so the final "souls to the polls" Sunday.

3) As of yesterday, four red counties were yet to report. That would likely boost the lead back to 70k

4) I don't think the FL Rs in their wildest dreams expected to lead this late in the campaign.

5) Likewise in NV:
Clark (with its union "encouragement" for members turned out big yesterday and added net 6,000 voters.

However---big however---neither Washoe nor the rurals . . .

(5) contd. . . were open yesterday. My guesstimate is that would slice that number in half.

While this helped, the NV Ds are still looking at a significant--to potentially massive--shortfall from their 2016 numbers coming out of early voting.

6) Gotta make sure you compare days to days. Calendars and voting days differ.
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David Bier
David Bier
@David_J_Bier
My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."

Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh


"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."

Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”

My conclusion:
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Jeff Cortese
Jeff Cortese
@jeffreycortese
1/9 Impeachment fun fact: sitting Congressman #AlceeHastings, participating in current #impeachment, was himself impeached. He was fed judge convicted on 8 articles related to bribery/lying under oath. 4-years later, he was in #Congress. Following is from

2/9 “In 1981, a fed grand jury indicted Judge Hastings along with his friend William Borders, a D.C. lawyer. Hastings was charged with conspiracy/obstruction of justice for soliciting a $150,000 bribe in return for reducing the sentences of two mob-connected felons.” #corruption

3/9 “A year after Borders was convicted, the result of an FBI sting, Hastings's case came before the criminal court. Despite Borders’ conviction, and the fact that Hastings had indeed reduced the sentences of the two felons, he was acquitted...and returned to his judicial post.”

4/9 “Subsequently, suspicions arose that Hastings had lied and falsified evidence during the trial in order to obtain an acquittal. A special committee of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals began a new probe into the Hastings case.”

5/9 “The resulting three-year investigation ended with the panel concluding that Hastings did indeed commit perjury, tamper with evidence, and conspire to gain financially by accepting bribes. The panel recommended further action to the U.S. Judicial Conference...”
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Feisty Cat\U0001f339 (@FeistyCat on GAB)
Feisty Cat🌹 (@FeistyCa...
@CHHR01
An orders list will be coming out Mon. Per Lin: likely a ruling in the PA case with GA and MI granted cert with/reversal and remand to follow law in PA case. Then we move on to another Conference next Friday with those orders issued Mon Mar 1st.🙏
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