Good to see @Marthakearney on @BBCr4today taking @pritipatel to task over the numbers of lorries in Dover - now 1,500 in Stack (M20) and Manston airfield combined - rather more than 170 that @BorisJohnson said yesterday, baffling haulage groups /1

BREAK: The UK drops all its 'law breaking' clauses - including plans for more in forthcoming taxation bill - after @michaelgove
and @MarosSefcovic agree deal on terms of implementing Northern Irish Protocol. 1/

https://t.co/MdBbcI8vjd

@MarosSefcovic This is obviously very good news - recalling that it relates to the implementation of last autumn's deal to allow #Brexit to happen without returning a trade border to island of Ireland...but leaving one in the Irish Sea. /2

@MarosSefcovic The statement says that the two sides have determined "criteria for goods to be considered 'not at risk' of entering the EU" - though the extent to which goods pay tariffs UK-EU will depend on whether we get an FTA with the EU. (Even if we do, some still will) /3

@MarosSefcovic The two sides have also agreed on the 'reachback' of Article 10 or the "application of State aid under the terms of the Protocol" which the UK govt feared could be used to constrain UK govt subsidy decisions after January 1 /4

@MarosSefcovic This was because EU state aid law applied to UK in respect of NI Goods - so risk of 'catching' a UK decision to, say, give a bank a tax break if it had NI Clients...thereby blowing hole in @BorisJohnson 'sovereign' Brexit. An understanding has been reached here. /5

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As #brexit talks drift towards the rocks, trade groups say plans for Irish Sea trade border after Brexit are ‘in a mess’ via, my latest via @FT ...this is an issue coming deal or no deal. Stay with me 1/


So to recap, under Northern Ireland protocol negotiated in the Withdrawal Agreement all goods going from Great Britain to NI must confirm with EU customs code. To avoid new border in Ireland, that means trade border in Irish Sea - new paperwork, new systems. Operational Jan 1/2

The problem is that because the FTA negotiations are stuck, the negotiations in the Joint Committee on how to implement the Protoocl (and @michaelgove is with @MarosSefcovic talking today) haven't yet born fruit. That means a LOT of uncertainty. /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic How much uncertainty? Well, as @MichaelAodhan tells me, a lot. Research by the Northern Ireland Business Brexit Working Group (NIBBWG) found only 20% of members were ready. And its not their fault: need info on tarifs, computer systems etc. And are not getting answers /3

@michaelgove @MarosSefcovic @MichaelAodhan Now. The Government has earmarked £200m for the Trade Support Service run by Fujitsu and the Customs Clearance Consortium with @ShankerASingham @RobHardyFR8 to help business process new paperwork...BUT even it cannot answer lots of Qs, and won't help with animal/SPS issues. /4

NEW. 🚨🚨🚛🇬🇧🙄🚛🚚🚨🚨 clear signs govt is preparing for coming #brexit turbulence - consulting on new fast-track scheme for food lorries returning to Europe /1



The idea is that 300 lorries a day will be granted 'fast track' permits so they can go back EU and replenish supplies...this is because (see below) the gov fears that potential for disruption is "high" /2

The 8-page consultation document notes this is both because of #Brexit but also because of #COVID19 and continued French insistence on checks on all drivers from UK. /3

Lots arriving in Kent without clear tests SO separately Dept for Transport is considering £150 fines for drivers that don't have clean tests before entering Kent - problem, say hauliers, is that this requires communicating with EU-based drivers (85% from EU) /4

The govt is worried that disruptions will risk the kind of panic-buying we saw in early #COVID19 pandemic /5

It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2

@BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3

@BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4

@BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5

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So here it is. After the euphoria, the @FinancialTimes @FTMag long read of how @BorisJohnson did his Trade deal with the EU. Tl:dr...not so much “build back better”, more “build back the borders” - stay with me/1.

@FTMag @BorisJohnson The really under-appreciated part of this story is the extent to which the Johnson government, having won its 80 seat majority promising to "Get Brexit Done" then explicitly and actively chose the hardest possible version of #brexit in defiance of commercial interests /2

@FTMag @BorisJohnson Our story begins in January last year when David Frost commenced what Whitehall insiders call a "Star Chamber" process to strip away anything that might be considered more than a "Canada-style" deal - regardless of the fact that UK doesn't trade with EU like Canada! /3

@FTMag @BorisJohnson So what did that mean in practice?

Well, for example leaving EU aviation safety agency (EASA); Chemicals agency (ECHA), not getting a waiver of 'safety and security' declarations for hauliers, not seeking special arrangements for animal products...on and on it goes /4

@FTMag @BorisJohnson Didn't industry object? Well yes it did - but those who yelled too hard found themselves shut out of the door.

Did Whitehall object? Yes it did - Defra and Beis and Treasury all tried at some level to temper the revolutionary fury. But mostly failed. /5

THREAD: CCP vs US Military, on home soil.

1. I watched the Executive Orders and I watched the media panic. I watched the MSM lies and I watched the treason. I watched the fake Russia narrative. I watched the calls for impeachment. I watched a stolen election, in full view.

(THREAD) Pre-election Russia collusion may take down Trump. It's equally possible the Trumps' pre- and post-election collusion with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel will do it—a course of collusion also connected to the Kremlin. I explain here. I hope you'll read on and retweet.

1/ I must stress how unbelievably complex the "Grand Bargain" theory of the Trump-Russia case is—a different thing from saying it's not substantiated. It's substantiated in *almost every single particular*—it just *also* happens to be very confusing. Not byzantine—just confusing.

2/ The basics: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the UAE all view Iran as their chief regional enemy. Iran is propped up by Russia. Therefore the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis all need a US government willing to find a way to get the Kremlin to *stop* supporting Iran in the Middle East.

3/ The best way to get Russia to stop supporting Iran—or reduce support—was/is to drop all sanctions on Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea, as that'd be worth *trillions* to the Kremlin over the next decade. Everyone knew that Clinton wouldn't do this—and that Trump would.

4/ Per the NYT, on August 3, 2016, Donald Trump Jr. met secretly at Trump Tower with a Saudi and Emirati emissary, George Nader, as well as an Israeli intelligence expert, Joel Zamel, with *significant* ties to both Israeli intelligence *and* Russian oligarchs allied with Putin.

1. @JonathanTurley
Trump has only been out of office and, therefore, no longer (purportedly) immunized from criminal prosecution for ~1 month. Also, because of R delay, Garland is still awaiting confirmation. Once Garland is AG, expect a thorough



2. investigation of Trump for inciting insurrection in violation of 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Once that investigation is completed, based on the information that is currently public, there is a good chance that Trump will be prosecuted for violating

3. 18 U.S.C. 2383, together with other federal crimes. Not absolutely guaranteed. But a very good chance. The only element of inciting insurrection that is open to credible dispute is Trump’s intent. Is there sufficient evidence that he intended his speech to incite imminent

4. lawlessness? As you know (or should know), criminal intent is invariably established by circumstantial evidence. That means prosecutors must analyze everything Trump did and said (and didn't do or say) before, during and after his incendiary speech.

5. That investigation takes time. Sometimes a lot of time to empanel a grand jury and begin issuing subpoenas and seeking warrants. The fact that Trump's previous crimes, including the 10 felonies outlined in Vol. II of Mueller's report, haven't been prosecuted is irrelevant.