A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over t…

The Black share of in-person early voters was basically identical to the general election over the first few days of voting, but that began to diverge late last week--and even more so over the weekend, which is typically a strong period for Black turnout in Georgia

As most of you know, the Black turnout in Georgia (and nationwide) was relatively weak v. other groups in the general election. That's been a matter of some consternation for progressives who wish it weren't so, but it's also the big source of upside for Democrats in this runoff

At the moment, the higher Black share of in person early voting is enough to cancel out the smaller share of mail-in absentee voters, who were overwhelmingly Democratic in the general--giving Democrats, in my view, a slightly more favorable electorate at this stage of voting

Looking ahead, we're about to lose a certain amount of clarity in our day-by-day comparison, since the holidays will dampen (and outright eliminate) turnout on GOP-friendly days. We'll probably watch the Dems expand their lead v. the general, and then the GOP try and claw it back

At this stage of early voting, we also now have a new tool for analyzing the vote: our NYT/Siena data, linked to absentee records. We now have 384 respondents who have voted early, which can help us untangle ways that these voters are unique, controlling for demographics/method

It can also help us synthesize some of the conflicting bits of info (what wins out if you have an older electorate v. a slightly more diverse electorate, etc.; lower absentee voting but no change in dem pct, etc.)

Over all, NYT/Siena respondents who have voted early in the runoff are Biden 57, Trump 35 in Sept/Oct., which is about the same as our respondents who voted early by this point of the general election

Using this data and the voter file, our estimate is that the voters who have turned out so far would have voted essentially identically to the same point in the general election (Biden 59.4 v. 59.3), despite all the various demographic shifts and changes in vote method

Democrats are now doing notably better in in-person voting, with Biden winning an estimated 57% of in-person early vote v. 53.5 percent at this stage of the general election. But absentee voters represent a lower share of the vote to all but perfectly cancel it out

Of course, in the end the Democrats will probably need to do better in advanced voting than they did in the general, simply to makeup for their deficit in the general. And even then, election day could be more GOP to cancel it out

A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over the last few days, as they are now running ahead of where they stood at a similar point of the general election--thanks to a stronger Black turnout

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