1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?
Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?
RAJINIKANTH's POLITICS
I have tried to answer many questions individually through DM, but looks like it's better to do a thread and post it publicly.
This thread only looks at TN Politics through Rajini's entry angle. Will do a detailed post on the whole of TN pitch later.
1. Why is he in Politics?
2. What will be his strengths?
3. How will the pitch change?
4. What will be his challenges?
Thread 1 - Why is Rajini in Politics and What are his strengths?
24 years ago, when he first considered politics, TN was a nasty scene with both Dravidian parties neck deep in corruption.
That was the first time Rajini openly participated in the political process, voicing against the corrupt regime of JJ.
When JJ died, he saw opportunity to reset the fate of TN. His intentions seem to be great.
A. Sharp organisational acumen, leadership, vision, deep intelligence, and astute character.
He has done a lot of homework and organisation build in the three years from 2017.
The structure, the rules, and the democratic processes of empowerment will protect him to an extent from undesired elements subverting his party.
He has been studying the governance, political and social issues and thinking of solutions. His prep work is similar (in different ways) to the work done by @narendramodi long before he became the PM.
C. Superstar image which is a key influencer in TN politics. This is his most visible capital. His organisational and leadership skills are either hidden or are inferential.
i. Swing voters who always vote for a regime change
ii. Anti-incumbency or tired voters who want a radical change
iii. Anti-DMK voters who are tired of DMK's
iv. Gen X and Gen Y who just like exciting things in general
v. Voters who vote for caste-neutral leaders like MGR
vi. Voters who are generally enchanted by movie stars
BJP has delayed its goal of power capture. BJP is only aiming for four things this election.
ii. Achieving double digit presence in the opposition bench or in administration
iii. Gaining as many Rajya Sabha seats from the 9 seats from TN
iv. Ensuring a govt in TN which will cooperate in implementing centre's schemes
All others are sunset parties. Since these growing parties don't and won't get along, it's impossible for them to form a third front unless all of them join Rajini front.
He also seeks and gains support of @sgurumurthy Ji.
I know personally that Rajini has an ability to thin-slice people and positions. He has remarkable intelligence.
G. Rajini's campaign will be star-studded. The film industry will back him more than they support anyone else. Knowing TN's obsession with movie stars, this will be a great advantage.
3. How will Rajini change the pitch?
A. He will make the election multipolar unless he agrees to form an alliance with AIADMK. But that's not easy. AIADMK has declared EPS as CM candidate and this will be a constraint on Rajini.
B. He will break the caste barriers which hitherto decided huge swings in certain areas like Western and Northern parts of TN.
I am talking of those who fall through the cracks. I am not risking a speculation of percentages yet as this has a lot of ifs and buts.
They will go on attack mode and will reset based on Rajini's response.
ii. If Rajini uses attack politics of offensive defence, then DMK will focus on breaking Rajini's credibility by raising the discovery questions - such as,
Subverters will be planted in MSM and SM disguised as genuine Rajini supporters who will raise these dying questions
iv. They will recalibrate approach to AIADMK based on intelligence on Rajini's winnability
v. Fifth column within DMK will aide Rajini secretly as they don’t wish Stalin as CM
vii. DMK will prompt Shashikala and TTV relaunch to split anti-DMK votes and to stop them from going to Rajini
~ but BJP has better plans for them
Cont'd...
Thread 2 will cover approaches of AIADMK, BJP, other parties, VK Sashikala-TTV, M K Azhagiri.
Thread 3 will cover challenges @rajinikanth might face.
* inoculated, because they have gathered for a person, not an ideology.
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But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster
And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical
Of course, there are many, many myths that Brexiteers perpetuate that are total fiction. You've seen a couple of them already. The thread below busts a whole lot
You can't magic away the vast distances involved. Clue: we fly in only 1/192th of our trade compared to the amount that arrives via sea
In 2016, the UK transported 484,000,000 tons of freight by sea, but just 2,511,000 tons by air (192x less than by sea). Therefore absurd to think of simply substituting air freight for sea freight (e.g. if we have to fly in food or medicines because of post-Brexit jams at ports)
— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 28, 2018
But even if you invented a teleporter tomorrow, WTO terms are so bad, so stacked against us, that a no-deal Brexit will be a total economic disaster
Here's the truth about Brexit, the "punishment" some people claim the EU wants to inflict on us, the full horrific consequences of no deal, and the dangers lurking behind any deal we reach. Buckle in, it's pretty long. Better to be thorough than to leave anything out. 1/47
— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) October 14, 2018
And while the Brexiteers fantasise, real jobs are being lost, investments are drying up, companies are moving assets to the EU27 or redomiciling. All already happened and happening right now, not in some mythical
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— Edwin Hayward (@uk_domain_names) November 14, 2018
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Unicorn Shredder: Hard Brexit Truths
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- The major economic harm Brexit is already inflicting on the UK
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(Each tweet is a self-contained thread.)
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He was on his black Apollo mountain bike, fully dressed, wearing a helmet and carrying a backpack containing his laptop and 2 books with his name on them. He also had his mobile phone with him.
On the 27th of June. Noah's naked body was sadly discovered 950m inside a storm drain, between access points. This storm drain was accessible through an area completely unfamiliar to him, behind houses at Northwood Road. https://t.co/bpz3Rmc0wq
"Noah's body was found by specially trained police officers between two drain access points within a section of the tunnel running under the Translink access road," said Mr McCrisken."
Noah's bike was also found near a house, behind a car, in the same area. It had been there for more than 24 hours before a member of public who lived in the street said she read reports of a missing child and checked the bike and phoned the police.
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