My take on @AmitShah 's visit of Chennai 21 - 22 November.

Those interested in TN politics may read.

1. Amit Shah looked extremely pleased with the trip overall, evident from the way he got out of the cavalcade and walked.

I saw that rare smile on his face throughout his visit

He is also pleased with EPS's performance in the state - best implementation of central schemes.

Maybe reason for no anti-incumbency in the state, especially after last year's debacle.

Why is it important for Shah to be pleased with AIADMK's warm position towards BJP/ Shah?

It is important because the alliance is a two-way bridge. Shah needs AIADMK at the centre, especially in Rajyasabha more 'involved' to pass some of the heavy weight and controversial bills he has up his sleeve.

He is pleased because AIADMK is willing to partner. In exchange,

Shah may need to give cabinet position/s. I suppose a cabinet reshuffle is round the corner.

Two-way bridge because

a. It looked for some time BJP was a dead rubber for AIADMK post 2019 LS elections. This might mean that AIADMK may have decided to ditch BJP.

b. The old cry of BJP contesting alone still lingers in BJP leadership. This isn't good for now for two reasons:

~ That may inadvertently let DMK form a govt in TN

~ May make some key constitutional amendments Modi and Shah are planning at the centre difficult to pass

My Notes on Tamil Nadu Battle Field – Part 3

POST RAJINIKANTH POLITICS

My short thread on RK was focusing on the challenges RK will face. Key points.

1. I said that if Rajini couldn’t enter the “Rajini” style, hen he won’t enter at all. His announcement yesterday reflects it.

2. His followers are not united by a cause or ideology but by the mutual attraction towards a hero.

This will cause issues going forward as their bond will have to be a continuous guidance and inspiration from their leader who couldn't spare that energy or time due to his health

I had predicted in my first thread in November that Rajini won't form a third front.

So, when RK announced his political entry, I was surprised for two reasons:

1. when he announced his entry in 2017 there was a political vacuum in Tamil Nadu.

However, the rise of EPS and BJP through its Vel Yathra has made the emergence of a new hero somewhat redundant and it looked he was under pressure to come due to the tall promises he had made before.

2. the critical mass was still a distant dream because not enough footwork was done at booth level to transfer support to vote.

I have covered his strengths in detail previously, which included his organisational framework and blueprint and cast-less vote bank.

My Notes on Tamil Nadu Politics Part 4

EPS-OPS SPEECH IN THE AIADMK GEN COUNCIL.

From these speeches, I am picking up some undercurrents and seeing AIADMK's positioning of themselves in the election procession.

I am also analysing long term impacts of this.

EPS

1. Did the due diligence of glorifying MGR and JJ well enough, but seemed keen to move on and set the new party

2. Pulled a good balancing trick of precariously positioning party ahead of self, but keeping the emerging self image intact

3. Did not look like playing on the newly built stature/ image. Looked very aware, confident of his reach and acceptance by people, but not overly indulging in self. Showed exceptional maturity

4. Craftily directed criticisms/ allegation of corruption towards the party,

and asking the party to counter baseless allegations, while giving credit of performance to the government.

5. Spoke to the workers like a captain in the battlefield in clear, simple and categorical terms - setting expectations on them, setting the tone, agenda and approach

6. Did not mention the @narendramodi or the centre even once when talking to his workers.

Did not even mention the schemes @AmitShah inaugurated. No love left from that function in November.

While never missing an achievement of own government and invoking the dead leaders,