"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"
It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...
So let's dig a
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?
+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%
I don't actually know what these questions mean
"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.
Jeez. WTO constrains what tariffs the UK can set. Do we mean tariffs on goods to/from the EU, or generally?
The UK *has already* done a trade deal with Japan. No variant of Brexit now available stops this. This is 🤪
And yes, fishing. "Full control". At least that one is sort of understandable.
More from Jon Worth
This is perhaps the most complex 🧵 on #Brexit I've ever attempted. But this issue really matters.
Business, possibly even lives, depend on getting this stuff right.
It is about the complexity of Brexit delay, and what to do about it.
1/25
If negotiations had gone to plan, it would have worked thus:
1️⃣ 🇬🇧&🇪🇺 agree a Deal, politically
2️⃣ That is then turned into a legally ratifiable text
3️⃣ Both sides then ratify - on 🇪🇺 side Member States and the EP, 🇬🇧 side the Houses of Parliament
4️⃣ Deal in force 1.1.2021
2/25
The problem: we do not have 1️⃣ yet.
And with just over 16 days to go - including 🌲 - we do not have time for 2️⃣ and 3️⃣ and hence no 4️⃣.
We *might* have time for 2️⃣ - and that could prove to be significant (see tweet 7 below), but definitely not 3️⃣ on 🇪🇺 side.
3/25
*Essential* problem: by having spent so long talking (I think 🇬🇧 tactic has been to run down the clock - https://t.co/8EJZAJZHqz ) the path to a normal ratification is now ⛔️.
Now ratification becomes harder - legally, politically, practically - with every passing hour.
4/25
The most obvious stumbling block is...
🥁🥁🥁
... the European Parliament!
Parliamentary sovereignty, eh? A topic for another time.
Anyway, the EP has said it will not vote on a Brexit Deal this
Pretty clear again speaking to Mep's they won't countenance debating or ratifying any EU-UK trade agreement before December 31st #Brexit
— Shona Murray (@ShonaMurray_) December 15, 2020
Mep's are pretty annoyed at the very suggestion that it would be provisionally applied and the ratification would be a simple rubber stamp.
It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing
Bear with me - this is messy but important
1/12
Why will it be hellish?
We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec
There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not
2/12
Coronavirus first
I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?
3/12
Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.
Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science
But what does voting *against* mean?
4/12
Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers
Yes they could table new regulations and could use the emergency procedure so that parliament doesn't have to vote on them until 4 weeks later. So the govt has a lot of leeway (legally if not politically)
— Adam Wagner (@AdamWagner1) November 27, 2020
A short 🧵
1/
Public health is not my thing
But Brexit is
And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does
2/12
The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate
Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M
Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n
Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1
Each series got that stage of Brexit right
3/12
The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what
I own this error - I was wrong
I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right
The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too
5/12
The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...
This slide summarises what they'd agreed

Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.
I personally will be very happy to take these trains.
But so much for the good news.
Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX
Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see
That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)
In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day
In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.
All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
More from Politics
What would that "look like" in reality?

So a massive adult film star in all his glory is included in an official FBI government filing
Perhaps the explanation is that Patriots are in control.
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923 https://t.co/W3S8TgeY74
Hunter Biden's book is categorized as "Chinese
Patriots in control?
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923 https://t.co/p0rEyfd2DW
TIME admits to "conspiracy" to "not rig, rather
TIME admits stolen election, with spin!
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
"They weren't rigging the election, they were fortifying it."
Recognize the Ministry of Truth? How many things in the last few years have been redefined to be the opposite of reality?
Google the definition of "bigot" if you doubt me. https://t.co/CNU888fxr4 pic.twitter.com/UEhRBOtUB6
A "pillow guy" has military-grade intercepts detailing the IP addresses and device MAC IDs of EVERY incursion into every county in the
God bless the pillow manufacturer.
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
The last 30 minutes details where every single incursion is recorded including IP and MAC addresses. 100% proof. pic.twitter.com/P5MVb1xGNC