Trump is trying to overturn the election results. I doubt he’ll be successful. But I don’t know it for sure.

In the coming weeks, I’ll be watching two things:

1. Certifications
2. GOP state legislators and

There are two things that are set to happen with the election results in the coming weeks that ordinarily would be formalities, but in a disputed election are crucial.

First is the states' certifications of their results. Second is the selection of electors.
Right now, both processes are clearly on track to make Biden the next president.

Trump's only hope is to upset the apple cart on one or both. Blocking or delaying certifications somehow, or getting partisan GOP state legislators in states Biden won to appoint Trump electors.
Re: certifications, Trump will get little help from officials in the key states— they're mostly Democrats or bipartisan boards, except for GA Sec of State Brad Raffensperger.

Raffensperger is being pressured from the right, but he's pushed back so far

https://t.co/tMG9f4Eumg
With dim prospects for getting state officials to block certifications, Trump has been trying to get judges to do that, by filing lawsuits.

These lawsuits seem weak so far. But watch if judges start to take any of them seriously.

https://t.co/aHYWd83dvI
If certifications proceed as planned, the next step in the process is the selection of electors. Again, should be a formality. Biden should get electors in the states Biden won.

But the risk, many have long argued, is that GOP state legislators, will try to make a move here
PA's state senate majority leader, Jake Corman (R), has said for months that the state legislature plays no role in appointing electors, according to PA law.

But now, facing "pressure" to overturn the results, he's hedging that statement, saying that's in "normal circumstances"
A Wisconsin GOP state legislator has already endorsed this idea.

"You either have to toss this election out and have a whole new election, or we have our delegates to the Electoral College vote for the person they think legitimately should have won"

https://t.co/kCUStGwE7F
Still, there does not currently appear to be a solid effort on the part of any GOP legislature to replace Biden electors with Trump electors.

But we'll have to see if that changes in the weeks ahead as the pressure rises.
Even if legislatures do decide to make a play, there's a problem — WI, PA, & MI have Dem governors who will veto any attempt to change state laws.

But there's also a potential solution: the Gorsuch/Kav theory that state legislatures, not governors, call the shots in elections
To be clear, this is a far-fetched scenario. It's very unlikely to actually happen. Things look to be on track for Biden.

But again, the two things to watch in the coming weeks are: whether states stay on track for certifications, and how GOP legislators talk about electors

More from Politics

"3 million people are estimated not to have official photo ID, with ethnic minorities more at risk". They will "have to contact their council to confirm their ID if they want to vote"

This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD


There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.

In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut

If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.

Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.

You May Also Like