My two cents on the political economics of the first political crisis in Italy… with a shrinking Parliament. What are the incentives for Italian Senators, if they put themselves first and the country’s welfare next? Take the 2018 elected Senate, no subsequent party change

Let me assume that next election will be with a pure Proportional system -- no majority premium, no minimum thresholds. Strong simplifying assumption, I know: deciding the new electoral system is another interesting game on its own! I use yesterday SWG electoral polls
5 Stars movement (15.7% expected vote share) down from 111 to 31 seats: 80 current Senators going from MP salaries to….basic income (scary, um?). Democratic Party (19.6%) from 53 seats to 39 + 6 seats (counting Renzi’s Italia Viva). Forza Italia (6.3%) from 57 seats to only 13!
Even the most voted party Salvini’s League (23.5%) may lose seats: from 58 to 47. The big winner is Meloni’s Italian Brothers (16.3%) from 18 to 33 seats. So not surprisingly, Meloni & Salvini want early elections to get back in power. But the others?
5Star MPs will try to hold on to their seats: early elections cost each of them at least € 250k. Their leader may want to bet all their chips on a new Conte government, but do they have enough leverage to control their troopers if other govenments (options to stay on) emerge?
Mr. Conte wants to hold on to power. Power grows up on you, doesn’t it? If he won’t manage (but ask Renzi), he might create his own party. Polls give him a sound 15% vote share. But would he have the financial resources and the logistics? Few have Berlusconi’s deep pockets.
Mr. Zingaretti (Democratic Party’s leader, in case you haven’t heard of him) is committed to another Conte government. It beats me what makes Conte, first chosen as a “notary” by Salvini (League) and Di Maio (5 Stars), the perfect Prime Minister for the Democrats. But still…
If a third Conte government doesn’t fly, Zingaretti can flirt with early elections. It will result in fewer Dem Senators, but chosen by Zingaretti, not by Renzi as the current. Yet, Conte may launch his own party and erode Dem vote shares and seats. A waiting game for Zingaretti
Renzi’s (and Forza Italia) best option is to participate in a grand coalition (or technocratic government) and take credit for, if it does well, while avoiding early elections… the game has just started, let’s hope it won’t last too long

More from Politics

Trump is gonna let the Mueller investigation end all on it's own. It's obvious. All the hysteria of the past 2 weeks about his supposed impending firing of Mueller was a distraction. He was never going to fire Mueller and he's not going to


Mueller's officially end his investigation all on his own and he's gonna say he found no evidence of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election.

Democrats & DNC Media are going to LITERALLY have nothing coherent to say in response to that.

Mueller's team was 100% partisan.

That's why it's brilliant. NOBODY will be able to claim this team of partisan Democrats didn't go the EXTRA 20 MILES looking for ANY evidence they could find of Trump campaign/Russian collusion during the 2016 election

They looked high.

They looked low.

They looked underneath every rock, behind every tree, into every bush.

And they found...NOTHING.

Those saying Mueller will file obstruction charges against Trump: laughable.

What documents did Trump tell the Mueller team it couldn't have? What witnesses were withheld and never interviewed?

THERE WEREN'T ANY.

Mueller got full 100% cooperation as the record will show.

You May Also Like

“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.

Always. No, your company is not an exception.

A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.

Listen to Aditya


And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.

I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.

You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.

Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]