BC OPTIONSLEARNINGS
Saved by @SAnngeri

Technical Analysis and 3 Strategies to deploy for Aggressive, Moderate, and Conservative Traders.

🧵Weekly Bank Nifty Analysis for 6th Jan Expiry:

 To form a view, let's have a look at:

1. Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
2. Option Chain Data

Also, 3 strategies to deploy for:
1. Aggressive Traders (1.85%)
2. Moderate Risk Traders (1.2%)
3. Low-Risk Traders (0.75%)
1. Technicals

Let's start with technicals. We'll look at:

• Weekly charts
• Daily charts.
• Hourly / 60 min charts.
• 15 min charts.
1. Weekly-

• The past 2 weeks indicate that buyers have entered and are trying to lift the market up.

• 34000 was a strong support earlier too, this should hold for this week at least.
2. Daily:

• If we open flat or gap up on Monday I am expecting this to play out.
(See picture)

• If gap down happens, then the traders who are long would be in a slight panic and we need to observe the price action again after a couple of days for a broader view.
3. Hourly

• Since the market broke the last Lower High (LH), our positions should have a bullish bias.

• Traders would keep the last pivot of 34750 as a stop loss for their positions.
Option chain data:

• At nearer strikes put sellers are selling more than call sellers.

• If this continues for another day, can start selling puts 34500 and below.
Strategies to deploy?

1. Aggressive Traders

Can sell strangles of 34100 puts and 36600 calls & manage.

ROI is around 1.85%
2. Moderate Risk Traders

Can sell strangles of 33700 puts and 36800 calls & manage.

ROI is approximately 1.2%.
3. Conservative Traders

Can sell strangles of 33300 and 37100. Fetches you approximately 0.75% ROI.

You guys should be targeting 2% per month and playing far away from spot levels of BNF.

4 expires per month to make 0.50%.
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Retweet the first tweet and help others find this Thread.

Happy learning to everyone!

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But most people don't know how to adjust the strategy when it goes wrong.

Here are 7 adjustments you can do to lower risk and increase profitability: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

0/ Who is this for?

This will greatly benefit people who freeze when it comes to managing their trades and keep booking losses.

Some trade with too much fear as well when things go wrong.

Knowing these adjustments will give you the confidence to try to manage your trades.

Most of them are to lower risk on the side the market is going in.

Some adjustments even increase the profit potential and probabilities of the trade being in profit on expiry.

Let's begin by having a look at the adjustments.

Here is the adjustment number 1 below.

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One reason these strategies go wrong far too quickly is due to adjusting them too frequently.

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A lot of websites provide you with data for trading.

However, I liked the free website of Icici Direct the most.

Here is a breakdown of what it can do: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Advantages:

1. Quantitative Analysis in one place
2. Easy to find stocks where action taking place
3. Find the exact price levels at which OI is being added.

You can check out this free website by clicking on this

Where is the action taking place?

For eg, Nifty Heatmap Can easily scan for:

- Long Build up = Price Up and OI up
- Long Unwinding = Price Down and OI down
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- Short Covering = Price Up and OI down


Price levels of OI being added:

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Time Intervals:

• There are 25, time intervals available every day.

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Turns out, patterns trading is simple—if you follow these 8 Patterns:

Let's start: ↓

While studying her Twitter profile and with constant talks with her, I found these to be the most important patterns she focuses on always.

Then I wrote a small summary of what each pattern means.

Also attached are some examples from her tweets.

1/ Cup and handle Pattern

Happens during an uptrend.

The cup portion has a U-shaped appearance.

The bears are getting weaker as they are unable to drive the prices below the last low.

Subhasish Pani uses this a lot in stocks to spot bullish trades.


Eg


Eg
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He captured the down move in both futures and options.

Here's a breakdown of how he earned this profit: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

1/ Breakout Failure

Above 42700, all traders were expecting a breakout.

But do you know failed breakouts are more powerful than breakouts?

Sharp selling will happen if a failed breakdown occurs and he was fully prepared for it.


2/ Hints

He was giving hints from 1-2 months for Option Buyers regarding when they should buy options at a low IV.

The current market scenario was one where the premiums were too low.

According to him, one should plan for a buying trade during such scenarios and target big.

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Prefers 12 o clock momentum usually whenever there is a gap-down scenario.

Already the market above 42700 buyers weren't strong enough. So on Thursday in a gap-down scenario, he was expecting a big downfall.

4/ What trade he took?

He bought 36,000 qty of puts of 42500 strike at 92 and exited them at 391.

(43200 qty is an error by him, correct qty should be 36,000)
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