One key learning from @VijayKedia1 Sir:

Many of the cos he invested in: vaibhav global, Tejas networks, sudarshan chemicals he was tracking for 4-5 years before he decided to invest. Wants to pull the trigger near the bottom of biz cycle

Patience

🧵🧵🧵🧵 👇

Artificial Inteligence = 🖥️ + 🧠

When can you expect your fridge & mobile phone to revolt against you? (Spoiler Alert: Not in the foreseeable future).

Please Do 're-tweet' the Thread & help me spread the knowledge to more people.

1. The Language
In order to understand Artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, we need to start at the very basics.

Humans speak and understand a wide variety of 'natural' languages (this is what computer science community calls them): like English, Hindi, Marathi, Bengali, Tamil etc.

But have you seen a peculiarity of human languages? They do not have a precise meaning associated with a given sentence. On an average, every English word has 2 meanings. This makes human conversations confusing, with the need for multiple turns & clarifications. Example 👇:

Person 1 conversing with Person 2 face to face:

Person 1: Lets go watch The Dark Knight. Its our marriage anniversary!
Person 2: I dont like going out at night. Its too scary & depressing.
Person 1: Oh, what i meant was watching the movie "The dark Knight".

@dixit_37 Yup, autocorrect. 😅

#Garware #HiTechFilms Search this company on twitter, all you see is news of @LuckyInvest_AK Ashish sir investing in it. This thread adds some fundamental research about this company, to demystify it. If you like the thread, please retweet so max investors can gain the knowledge

Primary business of GHTF is manufacturing polyester (PET) films. These are transparent plastic films used for a variety of purposes. Packaging of items. The tint you see on windows (not in India, but abroad) is a PET film. The tint you see on buildings (yes, in India); PET Film.

Not all polyester films were made equal though. The basic PET film is a commodity. Primary use is packaging. There are 11 manufacturers in India. Most PET manufacturers are thus commodity producers. Not GHTF though.

76% (& increasing) of GHTF’s business is into value-added PET films. It is the largest exporter of PET films in India. GHTF’s products find applications in auto, real estate, electronics and FMCG industries.

They also claim to be the only fully vertically integrated producer of PET films in the world. RM is crude oil derivatives for them, not PET, coz they make their own PET (Polyethylene Terephthalate).

#idfcfirstbank is my largest and oldest investment. Thought of creating a thread to explain the business. If you like the thread, please spread the knowledge, retweet. Buckle up, because this is going to be a long one. :D

Quick summary of what a bank does. This enables me to establish a framework under which the analysis of the bank will become very structured.
Money is its raw material.

Bank takes customer deposits, raises money via borrowings (can issue its own bonds, takes loans from other banks etc). This is the input for the bank. Since the bank is liable to pay interest on it, it is also known as liabilities.

The output is a loan which the bank gives. These are broadly of 2 types: loans given to customers (Retail and Corporate) and subscription to bonds issued by other entities (Government of India, corporates like Vodafone Idea etc).

This is the output of a bank. Since these generate income for the bank, they are called assets. Not all the liabilities can be utilised as loans or used to purchase bonds, because banks need to have enough liquidity to service redemptions of their deposits.

I don't understand all the puns and mocking of RJ on the news of a new airline.
He is putting 2-3% of his NW at a time when the environment is best suited for a new entrant. It's a bold but smart move from a smart investor. 1/n

Airplane lease rates are down. Manufacturers would be rolling red carpets. Incumbents are suffering and can't sustain price wars. Experienced staff looking for jobs. This is probably the best time to start an airline.
@finshots explains it very well. 2/n

Even if he loses this amt, it is not going to bankrupt him. It is less than a quarter's returns for him. He can make it back in no time. End of the day, he is one of the smartest investors around. He will also create new jobs. We shud be applauding this instead of mocking. End

Bull runs in small caps are usually fast and furious, and the cycle repeats itself every 3-4 years. Every time, retail is sold stories of business turnaround and stock charts look fantastic for meteoric wealth creation. For the class of 2020-21, here's a couple of past stars.

These small cap stocks with 30-40 crore market cap went up 23X and 11x in a span of 24 months between April 16 and April 18. The story looked great then, but subsequently once liquidity and interest disappeared, the prices went right back to where they came from.

When in the thick of the action, it can be difficult to keep a level mindset. To keep the narrative believable, these companies are able to massage their top-line and bottom-line for a short period of time to show an imminent turnaround. Note the trends in these financials.

The company usually exhausts its ability to massage the financial statements very soon and the business health plummets dramatically. One collapsed so dramatically it has been selling fixed assets. The other one is Uniply Industries - a simple search on Twitter will suffice.

Newer small cap investors may be subscribed to many Twitter handles, Telegram channels, groups and even premium advisory services. Don't take anybody's word for the narrative being sold to you. On-the-ground-research and scuttlebutt can be plain fiction.

One oft- used , but rather silly, quote used by many is "Time in Mkt is more important than Timing the Mkt".
In reality, Time in the Market is profitable ONLY when your ( broad sector & theme) Timing of the Market right.

You need both. Period.

Guy in 1989: "Wow, those Nifty Fifty investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 1999: "Yes, a 250 P/E makes sense for Cisco."

Guy in 2011: "Wow, those tech bubble investors were so stupid."
Same guy in 2021: "Yes, 25x sales and a 450 P/E makes sense for a car company."

A recently listed IPO (Sep 21). Promoter did OFS at X alongwith fresh issue. Made record for highest subscription ever. Company currently at more than 5X of OFS price.

Let's glance a bit on Financials.
1/2

Mcap - 3500 cr
Company does about 150 cr revenue. And about 15-20 cr in profits.

I am at a loss of words on valuations.

Maybe market is smart, promoters dumb and value investors like me dumber 🙂

My exp of almost 3 decades in the market tells me, this will end badly.
2/2