Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

One oft- used , but rather silly, quote used by many is "Time in Mkt is more important than Timing the Mkt".
In reality, Time in the Market is profitable ONLY when your ( broad sector & theme) Timing of the Market right.

You need both. Period.

Some stocks are undervalued just because they underperformed in down cycle than their peers. The key thing to note is that they will outperform their peers in up cycle.

To sum up, try to find undervalued market leaders who underperformed because of down cycle of the sector.

Do you know below companies were Most Valuable top 10 companies in India between 1995 to 2010..??

Where are they now? What CAGR returns did they generate? Why?

- Century Textiles
- Brooke Bond
- Hindalco
- Tata Communications
- IDBI Bank
- Indian Hotels
- Satyam Computer

(1/2)

- NIIT
- Zee Entertainment
- Indian Oil
- Himachal Futuristic
- Reliance Infra
- RCOM
- Suzlon Energy
- DLF
- Unitech
- Reliance Power
- Sterlite
- Jindal Steel
- Cairn India
- Coal India

This is how survivorship bias can be studied..

#investing #TechnoFunda

(2/2)

Biggest mistake many investors make in highly cyclical sectors like steel, sugar, metals etc.

is that...during upcycle they assume earnings to be structural and get swayed away by optically low valuation thinking it as value buy..

Result... averaging down during fall n disaster

So, @elonmusk, you do know that the proposed tax on UNREALIZED capital gains on billionaires is just that, a proposal, right? Why would you burden yourself with an enormous tax until the proposal becomes tax law, which is highly unlikely? A couple questions for you. 1/

You note that as you earn no salary or bonus the only way to personally pay taxes is to sell stock. What became of the $22 million you received on the sale of Zip2, which you founded with your brother? After paying taxes on the realized gain, did you invest the net proceeds? 2/

After being fired by the PayPal board and replaced by Peter Thiel, PayPal was sold to eBay. You received over $165 million in eBay shares from the sale. Do you still own them? Did you pay taxes on any realized gain and invest the net proceeds? Surely you have non-Tesla assets? 3/

You have committed to owning all of your shares in Tesla for the duration. Why would you break your word simply on a tax proposal until it becomes law? I understand you invested $6.5 million in Tesla when you joined the company in 2004, the year following its founding. 4/

Since joining Tesla, have you made any additional investments in the company or is the majority of ownership derived from share grants? I presume you will ultimately sell shares to finance exercises of expiring stock options instead of continued borrowing and pledging shares? 5/