BC MARKET CYCLE

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Aurum Capital
@CapitalAurum 4 years, 11 months ago 934 views

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Patience and conviction

At @CapitalAurum our endeavour is to read the cycle of various industries, locate turnarounds and put bets on undervalued stocks. We gather various data points, not necessarily always captured with conventional methods.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

1/n

This has lead us to get into the turnarounds in many companies and industries. In late 2018 and early 2019, one such visible trend was cement cycle when it was not going through the best of the time.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
2/n

We recommended 2 stocks in a span of 3 months in Dec 2018 and Feb 2019 at around Rs 270 and Rs330 levels respectively. We started with 3% allocation in each ie 6% in cement sector.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

3/n

The drawdown happened. We saw a max draw-downs of 31% & 45% resp. during the fall of Mar 2020. This fall was much lower than the overall fall in Mid and Small cap indices in Mar 2020. In a way they outperformed the indices and helped our PF too.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india
4/n

As time progressed and we continued to get confirmations on our parameters, we increased the allocation in the sector. The current allocation is 12%. The average price of both the stocks remained closer to the initial buy price.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

5/n

We always believed in the process and continued to measure our parameters. The draw-downs were an opportunity to accumulate for our subscribers while we stayed put and stocks remained in buy zone.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

6/n

We had been asked questions by our subscribers in the paid section of Investor Forum on our portal. It was a healthy communication and led to improving conviction of our subscribers.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

7/n

Currently both the stocks are at levels of 700 and are up ~4X from the bottom. This does not include dividends.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

8/n

We continue to hold these stocks as we believe that the cement cycle still has some way to go. However, we may remain cautious, as always.

#investing #patience

Disc.: No reco, case study of patience and conviction.

@jitenkparmar
@niteen_india

9/9

More from Market cycle

Leading Nowhere
@leading_nowhere

Bull runs in small caps are usually fast and furious, and the cycle repeats itself every 3-4 years. Every time, retail is sold stories of business turnaround and stock charts look fantastic for meteoric wealth creation. For the class of 2020-21, here's a couple of past stars.

These small cap stocks with 30-40 crore market cap went up 23X and 11x in a span of 24 months between April 16 and April 18. The story looked great then, but subsequently once liquidity and interest disappeared, the prices went right back to where they came from.

When in the thick of the action, it can be difficult to keep a level mindset. To keep the narrative believable, these companies are able to massage their top-line and bottom-line for a short period of time to show an imminent turnaround. Note the trends in these financials.

The company usually exhausts its ability to massage the financial statements very soon and the business health plummets dramatically. One collapsed so dramatically it has been selling fixed assets. The other one is Uniply Industries - a simple search on Twitter will suffice.

Newer small cap investors may be subscribed to many Twitter handles, Telegram channels, groups and even premium advisory services. Don't take anybody's word for the narrative being sold to you. On-the-ground-research and scuttlebutt can be plain fiction.

Charlie Mungerilal
@CMungerilal

Some stocks are undervalued just because they underperformed in down cycle than their peers. The key thing to note is that they will outperform their peers in up cycle.

To sum up, try to find undervalued market leaders who underperformed because of down cycle of the sector.

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D.Muthukrishnan
@dmuthuk

Good time to buy is when a theme or segment is ignored by the market and not when it is popular.

When you buy what is popular when it is popular, need to forego returns for few years.

Sahil Sharma
@sahil_vi

One key learning from @VijayKedia1 Sir:

Many of the cos he invested in: vaibhav global, Tejas networks, sudarshan chemicals he was tracking for 4-5 years before he decided to invest. Wants to pull the trigger near the bottom of biz cycle

Patience

Value Investor
@ValueInvestor27

@soicfinance @ishmohit1 Learning and taking inspiration from you sir..🙏🏼🙏🏼

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Brian Cates
@drawandstrike

Great article from @AsheSchow. I lived thru the 'Satanic Panic' of the 1980's/early 1990's asking myself "Has eveyrbody lost their GODDAMN MINDS?!"

For three years I have wanted to write an article on moral panics. I have collected anecdotes and similarities between today\u2019s moral panic and those of the past - particularly the Satanic Panic of the 80s.

This is my finished product: https://t.co/otcM1uuUDk
— Ashe Schow (@AsheSchow) September 29, 2018

The 3 big things that made the 1980's/early 1990's surreal for me.

1) Satanic Panic - satanism in the day cares ahhhh!

2) "Repressed memory" syndrome

3) Facilitated Communication [FC]

All 3 led to massive abuse.

"Therapists" -and I use the term to describe these quacks loosely - would hypnotize people & convince they they were 'reliving' past memories of Mom & Dad killing babies in Satanic rituals in the basement while they were growing up.

Other 'therapists' would badger kids until they invented stories about watching alligators eat babies dropped into a lake from a hot air balloon. Kids would deny anything happened for hours until the therapist 'broke through' and 'found' the 'truth'.

FC was a movement that started with the claim severely handicapped individuals were able to 'type' legible sentences & communicate if a 'helper' guided their hands over a keyboard.

Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet

Rani Chennamma of Kittur was one of the first women rulers of India who fought against the might of the British Empire in 1824. Rani Chennamma was born in 1778 in a small village of Kakati in Belgaon distt of the State of Karnataka.

She was born into the Lingayat Community to a man named Dhulappa Desai. From a very young age she was trained in horse riding,sword fighting, archery and diplomacy. At a very young age of 15 yrs, she was married to the King of Kittur and became the Queen of Kittur.

It is said that King of Kittur Mallasarja was once moving around in the neighbouring kingdoms to find support to fight Tipu Sultan. It is then, when he came across Chennamma and he immediately got attracted to her sheer confidence and bravery.

Rani Chennamma and King Mallasarja had a son together who died very soon after the death of King Mallasarja in 1816. As the Queen of Kittur, Rani Chennamma immediately adopted Shivalingappa as her son and declared him the heir to the throne of Kittur.

This did not go well with the British East India Company who was enforcing the Doctrine of Lapse those days, according to which the adopted children of the Indian rulers were not allowed to become their heirs and if the native rulers did not have children of their own, their...

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𝐍𝐞𝐡𝐚 🇮🇳...
@Neh_hope_faith

THREAD: What is Golden Crescent and Golden Triangle and how it impacts India?

Golden Crescent region of South Asia - comprises of Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan - which is a principal global site for opium production and distribution.

Golden Triangle is the area where the borders of Thailand, Laos and Myanmar meet at the confluence of the Ruak and Mekong rivers. The Golden Triangle is called so because of the triangular shape formed by the locations of New Delhi, Agra and Rajasthan on a map.

India is wedged bw world’s 2 largest areas of illicit opium production, Golden Crescent & Golden Triangle, that has made Indian borders vulnerable to drug trafficking. It flows from 2 fronts, NW & NE, that possesses dual concern - violation of border & threat to national security

- Golden Crescent is world’s leading opium and cannabis producing region since 1983.

- Its proximity to Indo-Pak border has worsened the trafficking of hashish and heroin into Indian soil

- Trafficking happens through the border states of J&K, Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

- Golden Triangle is leading opium producing region of the South-east Asia, also an ancient narcotics supply route to North America & Europe.

- Myanmar-Northeast nexus is recognized by NCB as the root of heroin & chemical drugs

- Myanmar produces 80% of heroin produced in world

Patrick Chovanec
@prchovanec

1. Let's talk about Albanians. No, not THOSE Albanians, in the Balkans. The Caucasian Albanians, the pre-Turkish inhabitants of the land now known as Azerbaijan. 🇦🇿

2. Yeah, I know, there's also an "Iberia" there, which should cause even more confusion (with Spain), but let's focus on "Albania".

3. This ancient church in the village of Nij (or Nic), just south of the Caucasus Mountains, belongs to the Udi people, a Christian minority in Azerbaijan descended from the area’s pre-Turkic Caucasian Albanians. 🇦🇿

4. Nearby are the ruins of the Caucasian Albanian capital of “old” Gabala (Qebele), where I was given a personal tour by one of the resident archeologists (just for showing up). 🇦🇿

5. Only a very tiny portion of the extensive site has been excavated. “Every place you dig,” the archeologist told me, “you will find artifacts.” This whole field is a city waiting to be uncovered.

Jaya_Upadhyaya
@Jayalko1

GHATI SUBRAMANYA, DODDABALLAPURA (KAR)
#bharatmandir

One of the most important place for snake worship.
The murtis of Kartikeya and Narasimha are self-manifested.
There is an anthill which is opposite the shrine. Bhaktas pour milk on it as part of rituals.

Here Subramanya performed penance in the form of snake. He sought protection from Narsimha for Nagas from Sri Vishnu’s vehicle Garuda, known for his dislike towards serpents.
The Pushya Suddha Shasti is one of the biggest festivals here believed to be appearance day of Subramanya

It was in this region where Subramanya vanquished Ghatikasura, the demon. Hence called Ghati Subramanya.
Childless couples visit here to seek blessings for getting a child.
The installation of snake murtis near the shrine is believed to be an auspicious act.

The murti of Karthikeya with a seven headed cobra faces eastwards while Narasimha faces westwards.
To ensure that both are visible to bhaktas at the same time, a huge mirror is placed in the rear in the sanctum sanctorum.