1) My investment philosophy + Disclaimer -

I'm a full-time investor and my concentrated portfolio is comprised of (primarily founder-led) high growth companies with large addressable markets. I usually look for dominant businesses with a special sauce (moat) which allows..

2)...them to compound their revenues, cash flows and earnings for an extended period of time (multiple years).

Usually (but not always), such disruptive businesses operate in the technology sector and they are led by visionary founders with skin in the game.

When I invest,...

3)...it is always with the intention of holding indefinitely but the business world is unforgiving and capitalism is brutal; so in reality, my average holding period is a few years.

So, when do I sell?

(i) When a company's rev. growth < 15% pa
(ii) When the mgt. deteriorates

4)...(iii) When the 'moat' has been invaded
(iv) When I spot a new opportunity + need cash

Apart from the above scenarios, I remain invested in the companies and allow them to compound over time.

On macro, market timing, forecasts -

I started investing in the late 90s...

5)...and have yet to come across an individual who has accurately and consistently timed the economy and/or the stock market. Not one!

Over the years, many have tried to predict the future and plenty of well meaning people still try, but I've realised that...

Portfolio snapshot -

Long - $ADYEY $CFLT $CRWD $DDOG $GLBE $GTLB $LILM $MBLY $MELI $NET $NU $ONON $S $SNOW $SOFI $TOST $TSLA $ZI $ZS #ZB_F

Short - #ES_F #NQ_F

The above names have already declined 70-90% and I'm scaling in.

Index shorts + long #ZB_F are recession hedges.

Word of caution -

The above stocks I'm buying are high-beta, hyper growth + they peaked months before $SPX

Unlike $SPX the above stocks have already declined by 70-90% + many appear to be building bases.

Recession seems inevitable, so H1 likely to be turbulent.

Do own DD.

This cycle is quite similar to the 2000-2002 TMT bust...

Lots of sharp bear market rallies, tech underperformance and similar to the TMT bust, very high odds that recession will land about a year after the start of the bear market in stocks.

Earnings declines are not priced in!

To make matters worse, during the TMT bust, at this point of the macro cycle the Fed was already aggressively easing...

This time around, it is still hiking rates and doing QT!

Recession seems inevitable and highly likely the stock market is about to get a wake up call.

The stock market has NOT discounted the recession.

$SPX consensus EPS estimate for '23 is still flat vs. '22 and most money managers are anchored off this unrealistic number.

$SPX earnings likely to decline materially during '23 + this is likely to be the final shoe to drop.

During late 2001, $SPX did climb above its 200-day ma (head fake) whereas $NDX couldn't (similar to now).

Back then, semiconductors also rallied sharply but then the final leg down of the bear-market started and crushed all stocks.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out!