Praj is not just an Ethanol Play. Found this bit to be the best, creating mind map of optionalities requires in-depth understanding and use of knowledge from multiple domains. Hats off @unseenvalue 🙌🙌
https://t.co/XP4SErAZVo

Commandments of Investing Success!

Some of the key principles of investing that have helped me in my journey.

Retweet for Max reach!

🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵

Commandment 1

Investing is a game of probabilities and not a game of possibilities. First thing that is the most important is to adapt your investing philosophy to your own circumstances. Eg:- if you are able to give less time to research then it is foolish to buy

concentrated positions or companies that are just emerging with a higher allocation.

Commandment 2

This is the one where I have been burnt in the past. Hopefully I have learnt my lesson, always pencil in conservative growth estimates. Let the business beat your low

expectations and then take a victory lap. At the end you are here to compound your capital and not look like a hero.

Commandment 3

Have both concentration and diversification work for you. Make a portfolio of 12-20 stocks. Look for different themes. Concentrate in your top

Positions (10-11 stocks) and the other stocks should be like football players who are warming the bench and willing to play as soon as they get on to the pitch to replace any stock (one) who is injured or cannot continue to play.

Muthoot finance vs Manapurram Finance: Deep value opportunities?

Link to the blog🔗:https://t.co/MMQVfbRGuZ
By- @badola_arjun

-Gold Loan Business
-Diversification or Diworsification?
-Comparison between both
-Sources of risks

Happiest Minds Business Analysis|The Next Big IT Business? 😁🎥

We have analyzed the multiple trends currently driving the IT industry, and which players can be the likely beneficiaries

Link to the video 🔗: https://t.co/2JUfvKGKrd

Blessed to receive such feedback 🙏🙏

Why Indoco Remedies looks Interesting and why FY22-24 growth is likely to be stellar here?

Time for a thread🧵🧵🧵🧵

(Source for ophthalmics data:Nirmal Bang and rest is own work)

Looking at the incremental opportunity in Ophthalmics:-

Market size is not attractive for the Large Generic companies but for someone like Indoco which has a smalll base in exports business

As per the USFDA’s orange book, for Ophthalmic suspension drugs, only 3 out of 17 molecules have an active patent. Among the 14 molecules that are patent expired, 8 molecules are yet to see generic
competition.

Even for the one’s which have seen generic competition, the competitive intensity is very low and there is space for an additional entrant.. Entrenched players like Novartis, Bausch & Lomb and Abbvie have dominated this market with legacy products for decades.

Indoco Remedies and Sun Pharma are the only Indian generic manufacturers to have successfully won approvals for generic version of Ophthalmic suspensions in the US market. Indoco Remedies has recently launched generic version of Azopt (brinozolamide)

A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth

@varinder_bansal

Sugar industry is poised to change drastically over the coming years from cyclical to structural.
We can fall in the footsteps of Brazil which produces ethanol and sugar equally from sugarcane and reduce the overcapacity issue of industry.
A thread

Retweet if you find it useful

Let's first understand how a sugar factory works:
Sugarcane is crushed in a sugar factory that primarily extracts sugar syrup and fiber which is called bagasse. Bagasse is used to generate electricity, the excess power generates is then sold to the electricity companies.

Sugar syrup is then boiled to extract sugar, the syrup can be boiled up to three times to extract maximum sugar, and the residue left is known as molasses
Molasses can be further processed to generate ethanol and alcohol

The sugar syrup if being boiled twice generate B heavy molasses which has more sugar content hence can generate higher ethanol, the syrup boiled three times leaves C heavy molasses which has very low sugar content having lower ethanol yield

Ethanol can also be extracted directly from sugar syrup without making sugar, this leads to the highest ethanol yield and also fetches higher ethanol prices in the market.

Avadhpur
Balrampur
Bazpur
Burhanpur
Dalmiapur
Dhampur 
Dwarikeshpur
Jaunpur
Kolhapur
Lakhimpur
Prajpur
Renukapur
Sitapur
Solapur
Sultanpur
Trivenipur
Wopur
Yepur
...
...

मिले सुर मेरा तुम्हारा तो Pur बने हमारा 🎶🎷🥁

Well it's happening...

Someone who usually buys after I suggest, msgd me and said...
"U should read Renuka Sugar"

U don't know - Modi ji changing Ethanol Rules...

When I argued..immediate response was to send some watsapp msg & a reply "I bought Balrampur also sometime back"

Just to add : I have no views on sugar stocks.. I don't understand if Sugar stocks are overvalued or undervalued..