Remember the government wanting to "follow the science"? It is remarkable how far it is ignoring scientific advice on this new ultra-infectious variant of #Covid-19 by keeping schools open... both SAGE and @imperialcollege issuing warnings on school closures. Stay with me. /1

@imperialcollege First the @imperialcollege paper, which finds that the new variant is still being ultra-infectious despite November lockdowns - link here, but cases of new variant trebled in SEast, even under lockdown /2

https://t.co/fdvuVX3OkW
@imperialcollege The paper then notes (given schools were open and under 20s are most infected): "A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen in January 2021." /3
@imperialcollege This echoes what govt science advisory SAGE cmme told ministers on Dec 22...that it was "highly unlikely" the R number can be kept below 1 (cases falling, it is currently 1.1-1.3) with schools open /4

https://t.co/yV5qcSkErJ
@imperialcollege But on Dec 30 Gavin Williamson announce primaries would go back, and secondary schools would have staggered return while testing regime (lateral flow, not that sensitive) was set up - see statement here /5

https://t.co/U0LPgXXO55
@imperialcollege This thread by @dgurdasani1 unpicks the details...shows where things are headed. Tl;dr the point is that a more transmissible virus mutation is more dangerous than the virus becoming more lethal - but with same transmissibility. /6

https://t.co/8gx4T2yNkB
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 There are signs of pressure telling...like this @guardian story saying that Gov will include London boroughs in group of primaries in south that wont open /7
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Apols - link here - still to be confirmed, but perhaps a belwether? /8

https://t.co/jOeAnn7wXb
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian In any event (and I write as a parent of a GCSE student who is v keen indeed that they should do their exams) what is clear is that the government is following this schools policy despite clear assertions from scientists that R will surge, given new variant infectiousness /9
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian At the same time - even before schools go back - the warning lights are starting to blink on the hospitals dashboard. Nightingales (for which it is not clear there are sufficient staff) are being talked about etc. /10
@imperialcollege @dgurdasani1 @guardian Just like with the Christmas changes, it seems hard - given where we are apparently headed - that the govt holds its line. And if does, for how long? And if numbers climb too high, well, the scientific warnings are there in black and white....tough weeks ahead. ENDS

More from Peter Foster

Another head-banging day for the £112bn UK creative sector that is starting to ingest how difficult #Brexit is going to make their lives - and how little the government is really willing to do to fix the lack of a 'mobility' chapter in the EU-UK trade deal. Quick update.../1

First Equity @EquityUK put out a letter to @BorisJohnson warning that #brexit was a "towering hurdle" (you'd want Brian Blessed reading that part) to UK actors plying their trade in EU - a double whammy with #COVID19 /2

https://t.co/mXjTAISqZk


@BorisJohnson One third of Equity members say they've seen job ads asking for EU passport holders: "Before, we were able to travel to Europe visa-free. Now we have to pay hundreds of pounds, fill in form after form, and spend weeks waiting for approval" /3

@BorisJohnson Worth recalling that all this goes back to the UK desire NOT to have a 'mobility' provision within the TCA - all part of 'ending Free Movement' and the professional services folk - including musicians, actors, fashion models etc -are all victim of

@BorisJohnson What's the government going to do about all this? Good question, which brings us to todays @CommonsDCMS hearing in which the Culture Minister Caroline Dinenage @cj_dinenage frankly pin-balled around the issues /5

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