BC GOVERNMENT
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

I'm honestly at a loss as to understanding what our government is thinking & what evidence they're considering in enacting gravely negligent policies that will almost certainly lead to tens of thousands of deaths in the coming weeks. Thread.

 To recap - NHS capacity is critical in many places. Hospitals have reported oxygen shortages, and doctors are talking about having to choose who to put on ventilatory support. We have rapidly rising case numbers, >50,000 daily reported cases & 981 deaths reported yesterday.
Let's remember that the impact of socialising over christmas hasn't even begun to show in our numbers yet. And that hospitalisations are indicative of infections that happened ~2-3 wks ago (since then we have been seeing exponential rises in cases).
This means even if we act today, and bring R to below 1 right now, hospitalisations will continue to rise for another 2 wks or so - in line with exponential rises in cases over the past 2 weeks. And deaths will continue to rise for 2-4 wks after we act.
Given current doubling periods, this means very conservatively, 20-30,000 deaths over the next 4 weeks or so, which we sadly can't do anything about now, because most of those who will die during this period have already been infected.
It also means that we will almost certainly breach NHS capacity (if we haven't already), because the situation will worsen at least for the next couple of weeks. And that is if we take decisive action TODAY.

What is decisive action?
Data from the last lockdown, and what we know about the new variant strain makes clear that current restrictions are not sufficient. They were not sufficient to contain increases in cases in SE England then, and we haven't seen any plateauing of cases despite tier 4 restrictions.
While tier 4 restrictions have only been in place for a limited period of time, previous experience from lockdown suggests this won't be enough, and given the current situation, we don't have time to squander time to see if these have the desired effect or not.
Even flattening the curve isn't sufficient- given current rates of transmission. We need to go hard and fast. The speed at which we reduce transmission will determine the number of lives saved. The evidence that schools have contributed to transmission is incontrovertible.
Highest rates of infection in primary & secondary school children. Rises in infection in these age groups during lockdown. Yet, we've done nothing to address this. Shutting down schools now could save thousands of lives. I know shutting schools isn't what anyone wants to do.
I understand the hugely damaging impact on children, and families. But scientists, parents, teachers have all been asking for schools to be made safer for months, and the government did nothing. Now we're at a point, where if we don't do this, thousands more will die.
This isn't an exaggeration. This is sadly where we are. With this more transmissible strain, we need all measures possible to control spread. Half-way measures won't be enough. We've already squandered away valuable time.
Let's also remember that this variant is rapidly increasing in frequency in other parts of the UK now, including Wales. We know that increases in R directly correlate with variant frequency. We can expect the exponential rate of growth to increase even further, given this.
This means the doubling time isn't likely to remain constant- it's likely to increase over time if we don't act. Every day of inaction costs hundreds of lives in the future. If the government doesn't act now, its policy is equivalent to accepting mass infection & mass death.
Can't possibly overemphasise the urgency here.
When will government act on this? Both SAGE & @IndependentSage have urged urgent action.

Are we prepared to do nothing, and watch helplessly while thousands die of negligence?
Sorry, just want to mention that in the earlier tweet, I meant doubling time is likely to decrease *not* increase over time (in line with increase in R) - thanks to @RodneyP72773409 and @GeorgeChiesa for pointing this out.

More from Deepti Gurdasani

Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
My thoughts on the govt announcement yesterday regarding a new viral strain potentially driving an increase in cases in London. The claim, at least from listening to the daily briefing seems to be based on the strain increasing in frequency more recently. 1/N

Cases have been rising exponentially in England- much of the increase being attributed to the South, although declines have slowed even in the North following easing of lockdown. Much of this is anticipated, and expected, given the behaviour of the virus. 2/N

SARS-CoV-2, like any other viruses mutates as it multiplies (albeit slower than influenza). Mutations occur randomly and most are 'neutral' - i.e. have little to no effect on transmission, ability to evade the natural or vaccine-related immune response

Having said that, few mutations have been shown to be less likely to be neutralised by plasma from patients infected by the usual (wild-type) virus. Whether this translates to a lower response to vaccines or higher risk of re-infection is unclear at the moment.

Also worth noting that just because a variant becomes more frequent in a region doesn't necessarily mean it offers a fitness advantage to the virus. Many mutations rise to different frequencies in different regions due to random processes. The frequency of strains varies globally
GOVERNMENT
Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
I've been seeing a lot of discussion around the dosage gaps recommended by government for the Astra/Oxford & Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. My thoughts on the potential benefits & risks of such an approach, and the need for much greater transparency around these decisions. Thread.


The UK govt announced recently that both the Oxford & BioNTech vaccines would be now administered with a gap of between 4-12 weeks (so prioritise administration of first dose, given limited resources).

What is the basis of this?

The basis that's been discussed seems to be that
1) the first dose is likely to confer some degree of protection against disease, so better to roll this out as fast as possible, and
2) that for Oxford/Astra efficacy may be higher when the gap between doses is greater.

I discuss some of the technical details around the Oxford trial below for those interested in these. If you'd just like a summary of this, please skip to the summary tweet titled 'SUMMARY'.

What does published evidence show? The Astra/Oxford data are a bit messy because of protocol changes during the trial. This is because the trial was originally planned as a single dose trial, but a booster dose was added when developers realised that this would likely help.
GOVERNMENT
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Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
We've been falsely told 'schools are safe', 'don't drive community transmission', & teachers don't have a higher risk of infection repeatedly by govt & their advisors- to justify some of the most negligent policies in history. 🧵


data shows *both* primary & secondary school teachers are at double the risk of confirmed infection relative to comparable positivity in the general population. ONS household infection data also clearly show that children are important sources of transmission.

Yet, in the parliamentary select meeting today, witnesses like Jenny Harries repeated the same claims- that have been debunked by the ONS data, and the data released by the @educationgovuk today. How many lives have been lost to these lies? How many more people have long COVID?

has repeatedly pointed out errors & gaps in the ONS reporting of evidence around risk of infection among teachers- and it's taken *months* to get clarity on this. The released data are a result of months of campaigning by her, the @NEU and others.

Rather than being transparent about the risk of transmission in school settings & mitigating this, the govt (& many of its advisors) has engaged in dismissing & denying evidence that's been clear for a while. Evidence from the govt's own surveys. And global evidence.

Why?
EDUCATION
Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
This is the exact problem with our government's thinking & response- despite this strategy of 'tolerating deaths' and half-way measures having spectacularly failed, it's quite amazing that our govt still hasn't learned anything, & continues to promote a policy of death. Thread


Had we adopted an elimination strategy early on, rather than one of tolerating a certain level of infection, we wouldn't be here now. The reason we're here is because the govt never committed to elimination.

We eased lockdown in May when infection levels were much higher than when other countries in Europe did this. The govt was warned about this, but did this to 'help the economy'. Not only did this lead us into the 2nd wave, the need for further lockdowns harmed the economy further

It's very clear from global evidence that we cannot 'tolerate a level of community transmission' and maintain 'R at or just below 1', which has been our governments policy for a long time. This isn't sustainable & very rapidly gets out of control, leading to exponential rises

Coupled with late action to contain these surges, not only does this lead to many more deaths, and much more morbidity with Long COVID, it also creates a fertile ground for viral mutations to accumulate with a greater risk of adaptation, which is exactly what happened in the UK
GOVERNMENT
Deepti Gurdasani
Deepti Gurdasani
@dgurdasani1
Brief thread to debunk the repeated claims we hear about transmission not happening 'within school walls', infection in school children being 'a reflection of infection from the community', and 'primary school children less likely to get infected and contribute to transmission'.

I've heard a lot of scientists claim these three - including most recently the chief advisor to the CDC, where the claim that most transmission doesn't happen within the walls of schools. There is strong evidence to rebut this claim. Let's look at


Let's look at the trends of infection in different age groups in England first- as reported by the ONS. Being a random survey of infection in the community, this doesn't suffer from the biases of symptom-based testing, particularly important in children who are often asymptomatic

A few things to note:
1. The infection rates among primary & secondary school children closely follow school openings, closures & levels of attendance. E.g. We see a dip in infections following Oct half-term, followed by a rise after school reopening.


We see steep drops in both primary & secondary school groups after end of term (18th December), but these drops plateau out in primary school children, where attendance has been >20% after re-opening in January (by contrast with 2ndary schools where this is ~5%).
SOCIETY

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ScottishPanda
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@PandaScottish
[thread] on a suggestion of a speech at the last

and how to vote for this deal on 30th December 2020

Mr Speaker

May I congratulate Boris Johnson

Truly

He is our Lion King as Robert Halfon calls him

Our herd leader with his massive success of coronavirus where as Priti Patel says we have always been ahead of the curve.

A Prime Minister whose achievements will go down in the annals of British history in infamy.

The focus of my speech shall be three pillars.

How did you win?

What did you win?

Where do we go from here?

But first I want to change tack and go to what I know is a favourite topic of the Prime Minister's: American Presidents.

I Know the Prime Minister has a deep ancestral hatred - sorry respect - for American Presidents.

As an Islington inhabitant once upon a time I know that his respect for America birthed out of a deep love for that nation and out of a deep desire to avoid his tax obligations to the Internal Revenue Service.
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Operation Cupcake
Operation Cupcake
@PhillipsBarrie
Trevor Chinn has funded various Labour MPs over the years including Owen Smith, Tony Blair, Joan Ryan, Ruth Smeeth, Tom Watson, Ian Austin, Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy, David Lammy, Liz Kendall, Dan Jarvis, Tristram Hunt, Jack Dromey, Liam Byrne. #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #BICOM


Chinn has funded BOTH Labour Friends of Israel and Conservative Friends of Israel . The multi-millionaire pro-Israel lobbyist donated $62,000 to Keir Starmer to win the UK Labour Party’s leadership election. April 2020 #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut #BICOM

Tom Watson, former BICOM staffer Ruth Smeeth and Labour Friends of Israel’s then chair Joan Ryan.

All three played key roles in promoting the smear campaign that Corbyn’s Labour Party was a hotbed of anti-Semitism. BICOM is important to Starmer. #LabourLeaks #Defence #Brexit

Hoping to remove Corbyn as leader. Chinn funded Corbyn’s rival in the resultant leadership election, Owen Smith.

Smith took donations for his campaign from Chinn totaling $33,000, the register shows. #BICOM #LabourLeaks #StarmerOut

The BICOM group arranges for influential figures to take trips to Israel. These have included trips to the Herzliya conference, a major “security” event at which powerful business and political figures discuss how to reinforce Israeli occupation and apartheid. #StarmerOut #BICOM
GOVERNMENT
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Kavita Krishnan
Kavita Krishnan
@kavita_krishnan
My account in @thewire_in of meeting Muskan and Rashid, victims of a series of violent acts by the Bajrang Dal, and by a range of UP government authorities including the police, shelter home and hospital.

Advised by @SartajAlamIndia Muskan was taken to Bijnor, where she got an ultrasound done at a private clinic. The report shows that there are “retained products of conception” (foetal matter left over after a miscarriage or abortion) in her uterus.

The hospital denies causing Muskan to miscarry – but their denial rings false. They declared no miscarriage had occurred – which is now proven to be a lie. Most shockingly, in actions that befit a Mengele, they did not prescribe any antibiotics to Muskan after the miscarriage.

See how calm, confident Muskan is in the face of Bajrang Dal thugs: asked on camera if her father or “guardian” has given her permission to marry Rashid, she replies, “I am an adult, I am 22, I have married him of my own choice five months ago.”

Muskan told me: “I am an adult, know my own mind, was living on my own when I met Rashid. I knew he was Muslim. We loved each other. I converted to Islam of my own accord, & we married. My mother does not know him, she has just parroted whatever the Bajrang Dal men asked her to.”
GOVERNMENT
Yet Another Columnist
Yet Another Columnist
@Sime0nStylites
Typically excellent piece from @dsquareddigest The exponential insight is especially neat. Think of it a little like fishing...today you can’t export oysters to the EU (because you simply aren’t allowed to), tomorrow you don’t have a fish exporting business (to the EU).


The extremely small minority of people who known anything about this who think that Brexit will be good for the City make a number of arguments which I shall address in turn...

1. They need us more than we need them. This is a variant of the German carmakers argument. And we know how that went...Business will follow the profit opportunity and if that has moved then so will the business...

And what do we mean by us / we. We’re not talking about massed ranks of Euro investing / trading etc blue blooded British institutions.

Au contraire. We’re talking about the London based subs of US, Asian and indeed European capital markets players...As soon as they think the profit opportunity has moved then so will they...it’s a market innit...
GOVERNMENT
Noah Bookbinder
Noah Bookbinder
@NoahBookbinder
We've been hearing this a lot: the House managers have successfully shown how horrible the January 6 insurrection was and also highlighted Donald Trump's vulgar comments. But they haven't really proven the connection between Trump's comments and the attack. This is nonsense. 1/

There is a criminal case to be made against Trump for his role in inciting the inspiration, and @CREWcrew has made that case in its criminal sedition complaint against Trump. But this is not a criminal case, and does not require that kind of proof.

On a basic level, this case is painfully obvious. Donald Trump spent weeks and months and years saying, falsely, the election would be fraudulent and then that it had been stolen. This primed his supporters to believe their democratic rights were being take away. 3/

Trump spent weeks and months and years fueling a sense of grievance among his supporters and hostility to any political opponents, as well as condoning violence or mildly condemning it with a clear wink and a nod obviously meant to encourage it. 4/

In the weeks after the election, he compounded his big lie that he had won with efforts to take bogus claims to courts and to pressure officials at every level of government to overturn the results. He portrayed the across the board rejections as further persecution. 5/
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THE LAST PRINCESS OF LAHORE - BAMBA DULEEP SINGH (1869 - 1957)

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Post partition, every morning a weak old woman would board the Model Town bus service headed to the city. The conductor never asked her for money or he would invite anger of the last Queen of Punjab.

1/n


Princess Bamba Sutherland, the eldest daughter of Maharaja Duleep Singh and grand-daughter of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, was born on Sep 29, 1869, in London.

Duleep Singh, the last Maharaja of Punjab was taken away to England by British after annexing Punjab.

2/n


Since he was still a child he was forcibly converted to Christianity and made to adopt British values in order to prevent him from ever thinking about regaining Punjab.

He was also kept away from his mother Maharani Jindan.
When he finally met his mother years later...

3/n

...he was told about his lost kingdom and religion after which he decided to reclaim it from British treachery.
During his struggle he married and had six children, 3 sons & 3 daughters from the 1st marriage.

Bamba was the most colorful character among 6 and was a rebel...
4/n

...like her father and daring like her Grandfather Ranjit Singh. She married Col Sutherland who later became principal of King Edward Medical College.

When she got permission to bring her grandmother Maharani Jindan's ashes to Lahore in 1924, she saw a huge crowd gathered...
5/n
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How to create a freelancing website that makes money.

Everything I've learned.

A thread.

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First, prioritise its existence.

Second, prioritise its improvement.

The technology you use is irrelevant.

- WordPress
- Notion
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It doesn't matter which you choose,

What matters is you have a website.

Pick a platform that you're comfortable with.

If you can:

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Don't rest on a website that doesn't work for you.

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So it's now October 10, 2018 and....Rod Rosenstein is STILL not fired.

He's STILL in charge of the Mueller investigation.

He's STILL refusing to hand over the McCabe memos.

He's STILL holding up the declassification of the #SpyGate documents & their release to the public.

I love a good cover story.......

The guy had a face-to-face with El Grande Trumpo himself on Air Force One just 2 days ago. Inside just about the most secure SCIF in the world.

And Trump came out of AF1 and gave ol' Rod a big thumbs up!

And so we're right back to 'that dirty rat Rosenstein!' 2 days later.

At this point it's clear some members of Congress are either in on this and helping the cover story or they haven't got a clue and are out in the cold.

Note the conflicting stories about 'Rosenstein cancelled meeting with Congress on Oct 11!"

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Marvels of Medical Science in Ancient India

ACHARYA SUSHRUTA and SUSHRUTA SAMHITA

Ancient Indians were pioneers in diverse fields of study and their genius was centuries ahead of their times. Feel the glory, basking in pride of their unparalleled achievements.

(Thread)


Sushruta (circa 7th or 6th century BC) was a surgeon who in present times is known as the “father of Indian medicine” and “father of plastic surgery” for inventing and developing surgical procedures. He lived in Kashi on the banks of river Ganga.(1)

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